oil and the end of globolization.docx

oil and the end of globolization.docx

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oilandtheendofglobolization

ProductDescription

AninternationallyrenownedenergyexperthaswrittenabookessentialforeveryAmerican–agalvanizingaccountofhowtherisingpriceanddiminishingavailabilityofoilaregoingtoradicallychangeourlives.WhyYourWorldIsAbouttoGetaWholeLotSmallerisapowerfulandprovocativebookthatexploreswhatthenewglobaleconomywilllooklikeandwhatitwillmeanforallofus.

Inacompellingandaccessiblestyle,JeffRubinrevealsthatdespitetherecentrecessionarydip,oilpriceswillskyrocketagainoncetheeconomyrecovers.Thefactis,worldwideoilreservesaredisappearingforgood.Consequently,theamountoffoodandothergoodswegetfromabroadwillbecurtailed;long-distancedrivingwillbecomealuxuryandinternationaltravelrare.Globalizationasweknowitwillreverse.Thenearfuturewillbeatimethat,initsphysicallimits,mayresemblethedistantpast.

ButWhyYourWorldIsAbouttoGetaWholeLotSmallerisahopefulworkabouthowwecanbenefit–personally,politically,andeconomically–fromthisnewreality.Americanindustriessuchassteelandagriculture,forinstance,willberevitalized.Aswell,RubinprescribesprioritiesforPresidentObamaandotherleaders,fromimposingcarbontariffsthatwillincreasecompetitionandproductivity,toinvestinginmasstransitinsteadofcar-cloggedhighways,toforging“green”alliancesbetweenlaborandmanagementthatwillbegoodforbothbusinessandtheairwebreathe.

Mostpassionately,Rubinrecommendswayseverycitizencansecurethisbetterlifeforhimself,actionsthatwillendourenslavementtochain-storetasteandstrengthenourcommunitiesandtimelesshumanvalues.

ProductDetails

∙AmazonSalesRank:

#142642inBooks

∙Publishedon:

2009-05-19

∙Releasedon:

2009-05-19

∙Originallanguage:

English

∙Numberofitems:

1

∙Dimensions:

8.51"hx1.06"wx5.80"l,.93pounds

∙Binding:

Hardcover

∙304pages

EditorialReviews

Review

"Thebookisagreatread,andonethatshouldberequiredforanyonewithalong-terminterestinCanadianenergy,transportation,manufacturingoragriculture."

—TheGlobeandMail

"JeffRubinisnotyourtypicaleggheadedsenioreconomist....Andthecontroversythathasdoggedhisworkisabouttohittheboilingpoint....Sogetset.IfJeffRubinsayssomethingiscoming,youbetterlisten.Lovehimorhatehim."

—CanadianBusiness

"Shouldbemandatoryreadingforallcorporateexecutives."

—NationalPost

AbouttheAuthor

JeffRubinisthechiefeconomistandchiefstrategistatCIBCWorldMarkets.Hewasoneofthefirsteconomiststoaccuratelypredictsoaringoilpricesbackin2000andisnowoneoftheworld’smostsought-afterenergyexperts.HelivesinToronto.

Excerpt.©Reprintedbypermission.Allrightsreserved.

REDEFININGRECOVERY

BEINGANECONOMISTCANRUINYOURAPPETITE

Itisprobablynottheonlyjobthathasthateffect.I’veneverworkedasataxidermist,butIcanseethatitmightturnmeofffish.Myjob,though,getsmeworriedaboutfishinawholedifferentway.

Ilikesalmon–whodoesn’t?

Salmonconsumptionhasrisenabout23percenteachyearforthelastdecadeorso.Thereareanumberofgoodreasonstoeatmorefish:

weallwantfoodhighinomega-3s,wewanttoeatlesssaturatedfat,wewanthealthyproteinforourlow-carbdiets.Buthere’sthekeyreasonfortheamountofsalmononyourdinnertable:

cheapoilhasbeensubsidizingthecostoffish.JustlikeWal-MartandTescoandbig-boxretailersaroundtheworldhavebeenabletocutpricesonalmosteverythingbytakingadvantageofcheapshippingandcheapAsianlabor,salmonwentfrombeingdeliciouslocalseafoodtobeinganotherglobalcommodity.Cheapoilgivesusaccesstoaprettybigworld.

Intheglobaleconomy,noonethinksaboutdistanceinmiles–theythinkindollars.Ifoilischeap,itreallydoesn’tmatterhowfarafactoryisfromashowroomorafarmer’sfieldfromasupermarket.It’sthecostofotherthings,likelaborortax,thatdetermineswhathappenswhere.AnAtlanticsalmoncaughtoffthecoastofNorwayisdestinedtobemovedaroundtheworldjustlikeaballbearingoramicroprocessor.

FirstthefishistakentoportinNorway,whereitisfrozenandtransferredtoanothervessel,whichwilltakeittoalargerport,probablyHamburgorRotterdam,whereitwillbetransferredtoanothershipandschleppedtoChina–mostlikelyQingdao,ontheShandongPeninsula,China’sfish-processingcapital.Therethewholesalmonwillbethawedandprocessedonasprawling,neonlitfactoryfloorwheresquadsofyoungwomenwithnimblefingersskin,deboneandfilletthefish.Itwillthenberefrozen,packaged,stowedonanothercontainershipandsenttoasupermarketinEuropeorNorthAmerica.Twomonthsafteritwascaught,thesalmonwillbethawed,displayedoncrushediceundergleaminghalogenlampsandsoldas“fresh.”

Still,ifI’msittinginanicerestaurantandI’menjoyingagoodconversationoveraglassofwine,thatisnotwhatIamthinkingabout.Andanyway,theshippingnewsdoesn’tnormallyappearnexttoamenuitem.Butifthatconversationturnstoenergyandoilprices（andIconfessitdoesfairlyregularly）,thenwhenIglanceatthatfishIknowIamlookingatthepast.Inthenearfuturethereisgoingtobelesssalmononourtables–andprobablyfewerrestaurantstoeatin,too.Becausethecheap-oilsubsidythatmakesNorwegiansalmonaffordableisabouttodisappear.

Andasitdoes,yourworldisabouttogetsmaller–much,muchsmaller.

Togetthatsalmonfromtheoceantoyourplatetakesaridiculousamountofenergy.Thinkofthefuelforthefishingboats,containershipsandjust-in-timedeliverytrucks;theenergytofreezeandprocessthefish,tosellitinasupermarket（retailstoresusealmostasmuchenergypersquarefootasfactoriesdo,justonheating,coolingandlighting）.Weinvestalotmoreenergytogetthatsalmonthanwegetoutofitwhenweeatit,whichinitselfmakesthefishabadenergydeal.Economicscallsita“diminishingrateofreturn.”

Butitgetsworse.Alotworse.Allofthatenergycostsmoney,andenergygetsmoreexpensivejustabouteveryday.Notquiteeveryday,ofcourse–therecessionthatseemedtocatcheveryonebysurprisein2008broughtoilpricesdowninspectacularfashion.Buteventhedeepestrecessionslastbarelyoverayear.Thosepriceswillbeontheirwaybackupsoonenough.Andhoweveryouwanttomeasuretheenergyinthatfish–calories,miles,joules,barrelsofoil–itisinevitablethatthepriceoffishisgoingtogoupaswell.

Theseafoodonyourplatedependsoncheapenergy.Andwhatistrueofsalmonistrueofjustabouteverythingelse.Allyouhavetodotofindanexampleislookaround.EverymorningwhenIheadouttogotowork,Iseethousandsofexamples:

thecommutersmakingtheirwaydowntownfromfar-flungsuburbs.ThecityIliveinhappenstobeintersectedbyoneofthebusiesthighwaysinNorthAmerica–halfamillioncarsmaketheirwaythroughitsmostheavilytraffickedinterchangeseveryday.Arethosecommutersgoingtobelivingorworkingwheretheyaretodaywhenoilpricesinevitablysoaragain?

Andiftheyare,willtheystillbedrivingcars?

Eitherourlivingarrangementsorourtransportationoptionsaregoingtohavetochange.Inotherwords,ourwholewayoflifedependsonthepriceatthepumps,andthatpricedependsonanuninterruptedsupplyofoil.

Thinkaboutthatasyoudrivetowork.Havealookatallthosecardealerships,thegasstationsandgarages,thedrive-thrusandbig-boxstoressurroundedbyhugeparkinglots.Trytoimagineyourlife–pickingupdrycleaning,takingyourkidstohockey,goingtoHomeDepotontheweekend,headingtothecottageinthesummer–withoutacar.IfyouarelikemostpeopleinNorthAmericaorAustralia,orevenalesscar-dependentcountryliketheUK,youprobablycan’tdoit.Andifyoucan’t,younowhaveasmallsenseofwhatdependsonthepriceofwhatcomesoutofthepump.

Isayasmallsense,becausenotonlydoesyourcarburnenergy,itismadefromenergy.Justbuildingyourcarrequiresasmuchenergyasitburnsinseveralyears.Addtothatthefactthattheplasticsandpaintsandinteriorelementsaremadefrompetrochemicalsderivedfromoil,andthepicturebecomesclearer.Thehouseyouliveinisprobablypoweredbyelectricitygenerated,atleastinpart,fromhydrocarbons,andisalmostcertainlyheatedwithnaturalgasoroil.Theclothesyouweartoworkwereprobablymadeinsomedistantlandandshippedhereusingrelativelycheapoil,justasthecoffeebeansthatwenttomakeyourlatteweregrowninafar-offcountrywherethesunshinesbrighterandthelaborismuchcheaper,andthenwereshippedhere.Soyousee,it’snotjustyoursalmon.Despitethesteadybarrageofclimate-changenewsandagrowingsensethatouraffluentlifestylemayhaveunpleasantconsequencesfortheenvironment,fewofusstoptoconsiderhowjustabouteveryfacetofourlivesisbuiltaroundourenergyconsumption.Nearlyeverythingwedoisinextricablyboundtoouruseofenergy.

Andby“energy”Imeanoil.Yes,weusenaturalgasandsomecoaltogenerateelectricity;buttheworld’scarandtrucksandshipsandplanesrunonoil.Thatmeansthattheglobaleconomyrunsonoil,becausetheglobaleconomyisaboutmovingthingsaroundtheworld.Andthereasontheglobaleconomyhasputallitseggsinonebasketisthatthereisnootherbasket.Asofrightnow,everything–fromthesalmononyourplatetotheentiremodelofaglobaleconomy–dependsonkeepingtheoilflowing.Now,whathappenswhenth