宏观经济学课件(英文版)14.ppt

宏观经济学课件(英文版)14.ppt

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nChapter14nThePublicDebt1nInrecentyears,oneofthemostcontroversialeconomicissueshasbeenthegovernmentsbudgetdeficit.nAtleastfromreadingthenewspapers,wewouldthinkthattheeconomysuffersgreatlywhenthegovernmentrunsadeficit.nAsweshallsee,ourconclusionsdepartdramaticallyfromthoseexpressedinthenewspapers.ThePublicDebt2ThePublicDebtnBudgetdeficitsarisewhenthegovernmentfinancespartofitsexpendituresbyissuinginterest-bearinggovernmentbondspublicdebtratherthanlevyingtaxes.nAbudgetdeficitmeansthatthequantityofpublicdebtincreasesovertime.3TheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom4TheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom5TheHistoryofthePublicDebtintheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom6CharacteristicsofGovernmentBondsnInthemodel,thegovernmentcannowborrowfundsfromhouseholdsbyissuinginterest-bearingbonds.nWeassumethatthesegovernmentbondspayinterestandprincipalinthesamewayastheprivatebondsinthemodel.nInparticular,wecontinuetosimplifybyassumingthatallbondshaveveryshortmaturity.7CharacteristicsofGovernmentBondsnWealsoassumethat,likeprivatebonds,governmentbondsspecifynominalamountsofprincipalandinterest.nThatis,wedonotconsiderindexedbonds,whichwediscussedinchapter11.8CharacteristicsofGovernmentBondsnWeassumethatbondholders（householdsinourmodel）regardgovernmentbondsasequivalenttoprivatebonds.nSpecifically,wedonotallowforthepossibilitythatprivatebondsareriskierthangovernmentbondsintermsoftheprobabilityofdefault.nInthiscase,householdswouldholdthetwokindsofbondsonlyiftheypaidthesamenominalinterestrate,i.9CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds10CharacteristicsofGovernmentBonds11BudgetConstraintsandBudgetDeficits12TheGovernmentsBudgetConstraint13TheGovernmentsBudgetConstraint14TheGovernmentsBudgetConstraint15TheBudgetDeficit16TheBudgetDeficitnIfthegovernmentownedcapital,itsnetrealassetswouldincludethiscapital.nInthatcase,anincreaseingovernmentownedcapitalstockcallednetpublicinvestmentwouldmeanthatthegovernmenthadmorenetrealassets.nThus,anincreaseinnetpublicinvestmentmeansthatthegovernmentissavingmoreordissavinglessinrealterms.17TheBudgetDeficit18TheBudgetDeficit19TheBudgetDeficitnIftheright-handsideofequation（14.4）isgreaterthanzero,thegovernmentsrevenueexceedsitsexpenditure.Economistsdescribethissituationasabudgetsurplus.nIftheright-handsideislessthanzero,thegovernmentsexpenditureexceedsitsrevenue.Economistscallthisabudgetdeficit.20TheBudgetDeficitnTherealdeficitisthesameasthegovernmentsrealdissaving.Iftheright-handsideofequation（14.4）equalszero,thegovernmenthasabalancedbudget.nInthiscase,thegovernmentsrealsavingequalszero.21TheBudgetDeficit22InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts23InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts24InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts25InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts26InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts27InflationandtheBudgetDeficitintheNationalAccounts28PublicSaving,PrivateSaving,andNationalSaving29PublicSaving,PrivateSaving,andNationalSaving30PublicSaving,PrivateSaving,andNationalSaving31PublicDebtandHouseholdsBudgetConstraints32ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence33ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence34ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence35ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence36ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence37ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence38ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence39ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalencenHence,householdsexperiencenonetchangeinthepresentvalueofrealtaxeswhenthegovernmentrunsabudgetdeficitinyear1andthenpaysoffthedebtwiththenecessarybudgetsurplusinyear2.40ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence41ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalencenWecaninterprettheresultasfollows.nHouseholdsreceiveoneunitextraofrealdisposableincomeinyear1becauseofthecutinyear1srealtaxesbyoneunit.nHowever,householdsalsohave1+runitslessofrealdisposableincomeinyear2becauseoftheriseinyear2srealtaxesby1+runits.42ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalencenIfhouseholdsusetheextraunitofrealdisposableincomeinyear1tobuyanextraunitofbonds,theywillhavejustenoughadditionalfunds1+runitstopaytheextrarealtaxesinyear2.nThus,thetaxcutinyear1providesenoughresources,butnomore,forhouseholdstopaythehighertaxesinyear2.nThatiswhythereisnoincomeeffect.Nothingisleftovertoraiseconsumptionorreducelaborsupplyinanyyear.43ASimpleCaseofRicardianEquivalence44AnotherCaseofRicardianEquivalence45AnotherCaseofRi