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四

Ⅲ.外文翻译

外文原稿之一

GrowinginequalityandpovertyinChina

（1）

LuciaHANMER

DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment（DFID）,London,UK

ChinaEconomicReview15（2004）145-163

Abstract

Chinahasachievedhigheconomicgrowthforover20yearsbutstillhasasizeablenumberofpeoplelivinginpoverty.Usinglargehouseholdsurveydata,thispaperattemptstopresentacomprehensivepictureandidentifythemaindeterminantsofpovertyinboththeurbanandruralsectors.Itconcludesthatdespiterisingurbanpovertyinrecentyears,ruralpovertyisstillpredominantinChina.Theslowprogressinreducingpovertyhasbeencausedbyrisinginequality,particularlytheurban–ruraldivideandinterregionalinequality.Insharpcontrasttothegovernment’soptimisminpovertyreduction,thispapershowsthatpovertyinChinaisstillseriousandhasbecomeincreasinglymoredifficulttoreduce.AlthoughChinamayeasilymeettheinternationaldevelopmenttargetofreducingpovertybyhalffrom1990to2015,thebattleagainstpovertyisfarfromover,evenby2015.

Keywords:

Inequality;Poverty;China

1.Introduction

EconomicgrowthinChinahasbeenimpressivebyinternationalstandards.Althoughitisthemostpopulouscountryintheworld,Chinahasoutperformedthemajorityofcountriesinthepasttwodecades.Remarkableeconomicgrowthhelpsimprovepeople’slivingstandardsandreducepoverty.

Basedonofficialstatistics,thetotalnumberofruralpoordeclinedfrom270millionin1978to26millionby2000（People’sDaily,2000）,buttheofficialfiguresareques-tionable.Thispaperestimatesthatthereareupto5.5–15millionurbanpoorand103–187millionruralpoorin1998.ThebattleagainstpovertyisfarfromoverinChina,andnewgroupsofpoorpopulationareemerging,makingpovertyreductionmoredifficultinthefuturethanbefore.

Povertyhasbeenconsideredtobeprimarilyaruralphenomenonduetothehugepercapitaincomedisparitybetweentheruralandurbanpopulations.Forhistoricalreasons,Chinesepeasantshavebeendisadvantagedbytheurban-biasedpolicy,whichseverelyrestrictsurban–ruralmigrationandprovidessubsidiestotheurbanpopulationattheexpenseofitsruralcounterpart.

However,recentresearchshowsthaturbanpovertyexistsinasignificantscaleduetomassiveunemploymentandurban–ruralmigration.Meng（2001）showsthat17.5millionstate-ownedenterprise（SOE）workersweremaderedundantbytheendof1998.Manyoftheseunemployedworkersmaybetrappedinpovertyduetolackofincome.Millionsofruralresidentsworkinginthecitiesmayalsoliveinpovertyastheyeitherengageinlowpayjobsorfaceunemployment.

OneofthemostdifficultproblemsfacedbyresearchersonpovertystudyinChinaishowtocomparethepovertysituationsoftwohighlyheterogeneouspopulations（ruralandurban）.Apartfromthehugedisparityofpercapitaurban–ruralincomes,comparabledataareusuallydifficulttoobtain,notbecausetheyarenotavailable,butbecausethestatisticalauthorityisunwillingtoprovidethemtoindependentresearchers.

Thispaperisthefirstattemptintheliteraturetostudyurbanandruralpovertyatthesametimeusinghouseholdleveldata.Theurbandatacoveralltheprovincesin1998.Theruraldatacover19provincesin1995and1998.Suchcompletedatasetshaveneverbeenpossibleinanyotherstudies.

Itisconcludedthatdespiterisingurbanpoverty,ruralpovertyisstillapredominantproblem.Theslowprogressinpovertyreductionhasbeenduetorisinginequality,particularlytheurban–ruraldivideandinterregionalinequality.

Therestofthispaperisorganisedasfollows.Section2estimatestheincidenceofurbanpovertyandstudiestheeffectsofincomeandinequalityonpoverty.Section3estimatestheincidenceofruralpovertyandstudiestheeffectsofincomeandinequalityonpoverty.Section4analysesandcomparesurban–ruralinequality.Section5hassomesimulationsonpovertyreductioninruralChina.Section6concludesandmakespolicyrecommendations.

2.Incidenceofurbanpovertyanditsresponsetoincomeandinequality

Thissectionusestheurbanhouseholdsurveydatain1998foralltheprovinces.Thedatasetcontains17,000householdsin31provinces.Toestimatetheincidenceofpoverty,thefirststepistodefineanurbanpovertyline.Becausetherearesignificantdifferencesacrossregionsinprices,consumptionpatterns,andtastes,itisusefultoestimateapovertylineforeachindividualregion.However,wecannothaveaseparatepovertylineforeachindividualcitybecausetherearenotenoughobservationsineachcitytohavearobustestimateofapovertyline.Instead,weopttoestimatepovertylinesforindividualprovinces.

FollowingRavallion（1994）,theestimationofpovertylinestartsfromthedefinitionofafoodpovertyline.Itthenevaluatesthebasicnonfoodcomponent.Dependingonhowthebasicnonfoodcomponentisevaluated,twopovertylines,i.e.,lowandhigh,areestimatedforeachregion.

Abasicneedbasketoffooditemsisdefinedtoevaluatethecostoffoodconsumption.Inthispaper,thepoorest20%ofhouseholdsrankedbypercapitaincomeareconsideredtobetherelevantgroupwhoseconsumptionpatternisclosetothatofthehouseholdswhomayliveinpoverty.Asaresult,allthefooditemswithcompletepriceandquantityinformationfromthisgroupofhouseholdsarelisted.ThefoodquantitiesareconvertedintocalorieequivalentsusinganutritionalconversiontableprovidedbytheNationalNutritionalSociety.Theunitcostofcaloriesconsumedisthencomputed.Thisunitcostmultipliedby2100（theminimumrequirementofcaloriepercapitaperday）and365（thenumberofdaysinayear）yieldsthevalueofafoodpovertyline.Atthenationallevel,thefoodpovertylinein1998is1390yuanpercapitaperyear,whichis23.63%ofthenationalaveragepercapitaincome.

Thevaluesoffoodpovertylinesvarysubstantiallyacrossprovinces,rangingfrom941yuaninQinghaito2361yuaninShanghai.Thisimpliesthatthesameamountoffoodenergycosts2.5timesasmuchinShanghaiasinQinghai.Thedifferencesinthevaluesoffoodpovertylinesreflecttheextenttowhichfoodpricesdifferspatially.

Givenafoodpovertyline,denotedbyZFforanyparticularregion,thelowandhighpovertylinesforthatregioncanbederivedfromrunningthefollowingregression.

（1）

wherethesubscriptjdenotesahousehold,Sistheratiooffoodexpendituresoverincome,xisfoodexpenditures,andnisthenumberofhouseholdmembers.

OncetheparametersinEq.

（1）areestimated,thelowandhighpovertylinescanbeevaluatedbythefollowingformula.

Thelowpovertyline,denotedby:

Thehighpovertyline,denotedby:

whereln（n）isthelogarithmofaveragehouseholdsize.Thesameregressionisrepeatedforallprovinces.Thenationalpovertylinesaretheweightedaveragesoftheprovinciallinesbyprovincialpopulationsinsteadofthesurveysamplepopulations.

In1998,thetotalurbanpopulationwas312.4millionpeople.Theaveragepercapitadisposableincomewas5633yuanperyear.Thelowandhighpovertylinesare,respectively,1869and2316yuan（Table1）.Theseare32%and39%ofpercapitaincome,respectively.Likethefoodpovertylines,thevaluesoflowandhighpovertylinesvarysignificantlyacrossprovinces.Theevaluationsoffoodpovertylinesreflectconsumers’tastesandconsumptionpatternsassuggestedbyRavallion（1994）andDeaton（1997）.

Withtheprovincialpovertylines,theincidenceofurbanpoverty,measuredastheproportionofurbanpeoplelivingatorbelowthepovertylines,canbederivedforeachindividualprovinceandforthewholecountry.Thepovertyheadcountratesbyprovincederivedfromthe1998urbanhouseholdsurveydataarepresentedinTable1.

Theincidenceofpovertyvarieswidelyacrossprovinces,rangingfromlessthan1%inBeijingandGuangdongtoover11%inTibet,Shaanxi,andNingxia.Ingeneral,thepovertyincidenceinthecentralandwestregionsissignificantlyhigherthanintheeastregion.Theeastregionaccountsfor46.8%ofthetotalurbanpopulationbutonly28–30%ofthetotalnumberofpoor.Thewestregionaccountsfor17.5%ofthetotalurbanpopulationbut23–28%ofthetotalnumberofpoor.

Theremarkabledifferencesintheincidenceofpovertyamongprovincesarelargelyexplainedbytheinterprovincialincomeinequality.Forexample,percapitaincomeinGuangdongis11,975yuan,whichis3.5timesaslargeasthepercapitaincomeofthelowestincomeprovince,Qinghai.

Urbanpovertyissensitivetotwomaindeterminants:

percapitameanincomeandinequality.IfinequalityismeasuredbytheGiniindex,wecanrunthefollowingsimpleregressiontoderivethepovertyelasticities.

Thereare31observationsfrom31provincesin1998.Becausethepovertyincidenceforeachprovinceismeasuredbybothlowandhighpovertylines,theregressionmodelcanberunintwodifferentversions.Thefirstusesthepovertyincidencemeasuredbythelowpovertylines.Thesecondusesthepovertyincidencemeasuredbythehighpovertylines.TheregressionresultsarereportedinTable2.

Alltheestimatedcoefficientsarestatisticallysignificantbelowthe5%significancelevel.Theincidencesofpoverty,eithermeasuredbytheloworhighpovertyline,arehighlysensitivetothemeanincomesandincomeinequality.Sincethemodelisspecifiedinadouble-logform,theestimatedcoefficientsarethecorrespondingelasticityofpovertyincidencewithrespecttotheindependentvariables.Forexample,theelasticityofpovertymeasuredbythelowpovertylinewithrespecttomeanincomeis_1.572.Thismeansthatifmeanincomerisesby10%,