中美关系处于危险十字路口.docx

中美关系处于危险十字路口.docx

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中美关系处于危险十字路口

最新财经资讯

第116期

（总第226期）

国际司2014-7-11

目录

一、热点新闻

1.美联储酝酿改革联邦基金利率政策

2.欧盟承诺在与美贸易谈判中保护NHS体系

3.中国承诺加快人民币自由化

二、观点与分析

1.中美关系处于危险十字路口

2.中国宏调：

刀刃上的平衡

3.中国楼市回调才刚刚开始

Fedexploresoverhaulofkeyrate

FT|July9,2014

ByRobinHarding

TheUSFederalReserveisexploringanoverhauloftheFederalfundsrate–abenchmarkthatunderliesalmosteveryfinancialtransactionintheworld–asitpreparesforaneventualriseininterestrates.

TheFedfundsrateisthemainmeasureofovernightUSinterestratesandisbasedontheactualratesreportedbybrokersforovernightloansbetweenUSbanks.

Accordingtopeoplefamiliarwiththediscussions,theFedcouldredefineitsmaintargetratesothatittakesintoaccountawiderrangeofloansbetweenbanks,makingitmorestableandreliable.

ConcernshavegrownaboutthereliabilityoftheFedfundsratesincetheFedbeganbuyingtrillionsofdollarsofassetsduringthreeroundsofquantitativeeasing.

USbanksnowhavehugeamountsofcashandhavestoppedborrowingorlendingFedfunds,makingthemarkethighlyilliquid.

WiththeFedtargetingratesclosetozero,thereliabilityofFedfundshasbeenlessimportantbutwhentheFedstartsraisingrates–somethingmarketsexpectittodointhemiddleofnextyear–itneedstobesurethatitistargetingarealbenchmark.

Inparticular,theFedislookingatredefiningthefundsratetoincludeeurodollartransactions–dollarloansbetweenbanksoutsidetheUSmarkets–aswellastraditionalonshoreloansbetweenUSbanks.

Othercloselyrelatedratesthatitcouldincludearethoseontransactionsforbankcommercialpaperandwholesalecertificatesofdepositbetweenbanks.

“ParticipantsexaminedpossibilitiesforchangingthecalculationoftheeffectiveFederalfundsrateinordertoobtainamorerobustmeasureofovernightbankfundingrates,”theminutessaid.

Thecentralbankmustbecareful,however,becausethereare$174tnofUSdollarinterestrateswapstiedtoFedfundsanditdoesnotwanttoinvalidatethese.

Itislikelytoconsultextensivelywithmarketsbeforemakingachange.

Inrecentmonths,theFedhasstartedcollectingdetailedshort-termborrowingdatafrombanksonaformcalledFR2420.

ThatdatacouldformthebasisofaredefinedFederalfundsrate.

IraJersey,directorofinterestratestrategyatCreditSuisseinNewYork,saideurodollarswereaveryclosesubstituteforFedfunds.

“Ingeneral,atnineinthemorningNewYorktime,theonlydifferencebetweenaFedfundstransactionandaeurodollartransactionisthebackendcoding,”hesaid.

MrJerseysaidhethoughtincludingeurodollarswouldbeunlikelytochangetheFedfundsratemuchrightnowbuttheeffectwheninterestrateswerehigherwashardtojudge.

ThepreparationsshowhowtheFedissteppingupworkonanexitstrategyfromultra-loosemonetarypolicy.

EUpledgestoprotectNHSinUStradetalks

Reuters|July11,2014

Britain'sNationalHealthServiceandotherEuropeanpublichealthprogrammesaresettobecarvedoutofaproposedtransatlantictradedealtoprotectthemfromlegalchallengesbyUScorporations,accordingtotheEU'stopnegotiator.

ThemoveisintendedtoaddresscriticismfromopponentsoftheproposedTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,orTTIP,whohavearguedthatundertheproposeddealtheNHS'spublicstatuscouldbethreatened.CriticshavealsoraisedthepossibilityofUSpharmaceuticalandhealthcarecompaniesusingspecialarbitrationpanelstosuetheBritishgovernmentoverdecisionsrelatedtotheNHS.

ButinaprivatelettersenttoBritishparliamentariansthisweekandobtainedbytheFinancialTimes,IgnacioGarciaBercero,theEU'schiefnegotiator,saidBrusselswasdeterminedtoprotectpubliclyfundedhealthservicesinEuropefromanypotentialchallenges.

“ThereisnoreasontofeareitherfortheNHSasitstandstoday,orforchangestotheNHSinfuture,asaresultofTTIP,”hewroteintheJuly8letteraddressedtoJohnHealey,theLabourMPwhochairstheAll-PartyParliamentaryGrouponTTIP.

TheEUintendedtomakesurethatanytradedealstruckwiththeUSwouldallowthe“fullpolicyspace”forpubliclyfundedhealthservicessuchashospitals“bynotincludingtheminthescopeofcommitments”,hewrote.

“Thispolicyspacemeansthatmemberstatesdonotneedtoprovideaccesstotheirmarketsforforeigncompaniesand,eveniftheydogiveaccess,theycandiscriminatebetweenforeigncompaniesandEU/domesticones,”MrGarciaBerceroadded.

AnydecisionsregardingtheNHSormovestoterminatecontractswithUSsupplierswouldalsobesafefromchallengesunderaspecialdisputeresolutionsystemmeanttoprotectforeigninvestors,thenegotiatorsaid.

Aproposedinvestor-statedisputesettlement,orISDS,mechanismhasbeenoneofthemainfocuspointsforcriticsoftheEU-USdeal,andapublicconsultationbytheEuropeanCommissionhasalreadydrawnmorethan100,000submissionsfromacrossEurope.Criticschargethatsuchamechanism,whichisbackedbybusinessandhasbeenafeatureofinvestmenttreatiesfordecades,wouldopenthedoorforEUgovernmentsandtheirlawstobechallengedbyUScompaniesbeforespecialpanels.

ButinhisletterMrGarciaBercerosaidtherewasnoevidencetoshowthatwouldbethecase.TheUK's94existingbilateralinvestmenttreaties,thevastmajorityofwhichcontainsimilardisputesettlementprovisions,hadnotaffectedgovernmentdecisionsoverthepasttwodecades.

“WecanalreadystatewithconfidencethatanyISDSprovisionsinTTIPcouldhavenoimpactontheUK'ssovereignrighttomakechangestotheNHS,”hewrote.

Chinavowstospeeduprenminbiliberalisation

WSJ|July9,2014

Chinahascommittedtospeedupmovestoliberaliseitsexchangerateandforeigninvestmentregime,promptingUSofficialstohailBeijing’spledgesasmajorifincrementalstepstowardsreform.

Ajointfactsheetissuedattheendoftwodaysofhigh-leveltalksbetweentheUSandChinasaidBeijinghadcommittedto“reduceforeignexchangeinterventionasconditionspermit;andincreaseexchangerateflexibility.”Bothsidesvowedtorefrainfromcompetitivedevaluations.

WhileChineseofficialshaveinthepastagreedtoscalebackinterventiondesignedtokeeptherenminbiartificiallylow,USofficialssaidthisisthefirsttimesuchstepshavebeenspeltoutexplicitlyinajointdocument,whichgivesthecommitmentsaddedforce.

InabriefingonthesidelinesoftheStrategicandEconomicDialogue,China’scentralbankgovernorinsistedonBeijing’scommitmenttoexchangerateliberalisation.

“Thedirectionofourforeign-exchangereformsisclear,”saidZhouXiaochuan,People’sBankofChinagovernor.“Wehopethattheexchangeratecouldbekeptbasicallystableonareasonableandbalancedlevelthroughreforms.Atthesametime,wewillallowmarketsupplyanddemandtoplayabiggerroleindeterminingtheexchangerate.”

However,MrZhoucautionedthatthecentralbankwouldonlyscalebackitsinterventionsintheforexmarket“whenconditionsareready”.Thesummitcommuniquéremainedvaguelyworded,asChinaleftitselfplentyofwiggleroombyavoidinganyspecificcommitments.

ChinaalsopledgedtostartnegotiationswiththeUSnextyearoverincreasingthenumberofitsdomesticindustriesopentoforeigninvestment.Inreturn,WashingtonagreedtoeasethepathforChineseinvestmentsintotheUS.ThemovescameaspartofnegotiationslaunchedlastyeartoreachaBilateralInvestmentTreaty.

TheshiftannouncedbyWangYang,China’svicepremier,markedthefirsttimeBeijinghasgivenanexplicittimelinefordiscussingreductionsinaso-called“negativelist”ofsectorsbannedfromforeigninvestment.

MrWangsaidinreturntheUShadassuredBeijingthatChinesecompanieswouldbeabletocompeteonalevelplayingfieldforinvestingintheUS.Chinahasinthepastraisedobjectionstowhatithascalledhighly-politiciseddecisionsbytheCommitteeonForeignInvestmentintheUnitedStates（CFIUS）whichvetsforeigninvestmentbasedonnationalsecuritycriteria.

USTradeRepresentativeMikeFromansaidChina’sagreementtodiscussthenegativelistwouldtriggera“criticalphase”oftheinvestmenttreatynegotiations.

USTreasurySecretaryJacobLewhailedthestepasasignificantshiftinChinesethinkingontradefromapresumptionthatitsmarketswereclosedunlessotherwisestatedto“apresumptionthatmarketsareopenunlessthereareexceptions”.

“Ithinkthegroundcoveredsincelastyearhasbeensubstantial,alotofprogresshasbeenmade,andwearenowkeyingupfor . . . thenextroundofveryseriousnegotiations,”MrLewsaid.

China’snegativelistisastatesecret,butisthoughttocovermorethan100sectorsandindustries.

ChinahasbeenexperimentingwithreducingthenumberofexcludedindustriesinanewShanghaifree-tradezone.Italsopledgedtoopenupitsdomesticmarketsfurtherduringlastyear’sThirdPlenummeetingoneconomicpolicy.

HeMaochun,directoroftheCentreforEconomicDiplomacyattheUniversityofTsinghua,saidthatshrinkingthenegativelistwasinChina’seconomicinterest.“ThisisnotjustcomplyingwithUSdemands,butconsistentwithChina’sownneedsinopeningup,”hesaid.

MrFromansaidthetwosideshadalsohad“constructivediscussions”onupdatingthe1996InformationTechnologyAgreement,whichgovernsthe$2tnannualtradeinhigh-techproduct.NegotiationsoverithaveslowedsinceNovemberbecauseofChina’sdesiretoexcludeawideswathofproductcategoriesfromit.

中美关系处于危险十字路口

FT中文|2014年7月11日

撰稿人张立伟

中美关系正处于一个危险的十字路口，引发这种风险的原因错综复杂，两国相互指责对方做了错误的事情，以至于成为“鸡生蛋还是蛋生鸡”的口水仗。

真正的威胁在于，这种相互刺激的游戏并没有停止，而且随时可能