TWENTY YEARS OF REFORM.docx

TWENTY YEARS OF REFORM.docx

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TWENTYYEARSOFREFORM

TWENTYYEARSOFREFORM:

ACHIEVEMENTS,CHALLENGES,ANDTHENEWAGENDA

　　20年的改革:

成就，挑战和新议程

世界银行中国网站授权转载

　　NicholasStern

　　SeniorVicePresidentandChiefEconomistTheWorldBank1

　　QinghuaUniversityBeijing,ChinaJune2001

　　§1.Introduction

　　Duringthelasttwentyyears,Chinahasseenthemostremarkableperiodofeconomicgrowthinmoderntimes.Thereiscauseforcelebration,buttherearealsonewchallenges.China’sverysuccesshaspropelleditintoanewphaseofreform,andthatisthefocusofmytalk.China’sdevelopmentinthisperiodhasbeencharacterizedbyasequenceofradicalchanges,althoughithasalsobeenevolutionaryinthesenseofbuildingonwhatwentbefore.Wheretheterritorywasuncharted,thegovernmentrecognizedthatitwasunknownandapproachedreformswithapragmaticlearn-as-you-gospirit.Itdidnotmatterwhetherthecatswereblackorwhiteaslongtheycouldcatchthemice—andsomeexperiencewasneededtoseewhichcatscouldactuallycatchthemice.

　　WemightveryroughlydivideChina’sreformsintothreephases:

theagriculturalreforms（1979-1985）,thedevelopmentofruralindustryandthetownship-villageenterprises（TVEs）withpartialopeningtoforeigntradeandcapital（early80stomid90s）,andnowthethirdphaseofdeeperopeningtotheglobaleconomyandgrowthwhichwillbeincreasinglydrivenbytheprivatesector.Thefirsttwophasesrelaxedconstraintsandreleasedpeople’senergiesinagricultureandruralindustry.Nowthechallengehasbecomethebuildingoftheinstitutionalinfrastructurethatwillreleasethefullproductiveforcesofawell-functioningmarketeconomy,whileretainingthesocialcohesionwhichhasbeenafoundationofpastachievements.

　　Letmebeginbytakingabackwardlookatsomeofthereformprinciplesbehindthesuccessesofthelasttwentyyears.InsodoingIwilldrawsomecontrastswithlesssuccessfulreformselsewhere.

　　§2.UnderstandingtheLastTwentyYears

　　TheChineseeconomypresentsamixtureoffeaturesofamarketeconomyintertwinedwiththoseofacommandeconomy.Withinthischangingmixture,threeinstitutionalelementswerecentraltothelasttwentyyearsofreforms:

decentralization,ruralreforms,andexperimentationandinnovationwithnewenterprises（e.g.,TVEs）.EachelementiscrucialtoanunderstandingofhowChinawasabletouseitssocialandorganizationalcapitaltotransformtheeconomyandgenerategrowth.Decentralizationofdecision-making,initsmanyfacets,allowedexperimentationandinnovationwithoutmassivedislocation.Thelargeagriculturalsectorsawfundamentaldecentralizationattheoutsetofthereformperiod.Asaresult,thissectorprovidedproductivitygrowthintheearlystagesofChina'stransitionandasourceoflaborforindustrialgrowthoverthewholeperiod.Inturnboththeagriculturaldecentralizationandtheruralinstitutionsandtraditionsprovidedthebasisofthenew,largelycollective,ruralandindustrialenterprisesthatdroveChina'sgrowthfromthemid-1980s.

　　Theanalysisofdecentralization,theruraleconomy,andnewenterprisesprovidesacontextandrationaleforChina'ssuccessfulevolutionaryapproachtothetransition,whichmaybesummarizedinastylizedwayintermsoffourprinciplesorobservations.

　　1.Step-by-stepProgress:

TheChineseexperienceshowsthatanadaptiveprocessoftransition,proceedingstepbystep,canretainthesocialandorganizationalcapitaldevelopedinpreviousstagesofdevelopmentandtransformitinwaysthatenhanceefficiencyandproductivity.Sometimesthestep-by-steporincrementalapproachismisunderstoodasbeing"gradual"orslow.Yettheagriculturalreformsof1979-1985probablyrepresentthelargestsuccessfulsocialandeconomicchangeinsuchashorttimeperiodinhistory.Thereformsgrewoutofbottom-upexperimentsthatwerebasedonpeople'slivingmemories,spreadhorizontallyinaprocessofsociallearning,andthenwerescaled-upandcompletedbythegovernment.Bycontrast,theRussianattemptto"legislate,"almostinstantaneously,alargearrayofinstitutionsforamarketeconomy（ofwhichthepopulationhadnolivingmemory）islikelytoresultinapathwhichtakesmuchlongertoreachthegoalofawell-functioningmarketeconomy.TheprocessesemployedinRussialedtothefurtherdeteriorationofthealreadyfrailsocialcapitalandinstitutionalstructures,andtheweakeningofincentivesforinnovation,investmentandstructuralchange.InKarlPopper’sterms,theRussianexperienceembodiedanattemptat"utopiansocialengineering"whiletheChineseproceededinaspiritof"piecemeal"pragmatism.

　　2.

　　BuildtheRoadasOneTravels:

Therewerestrongargumentsinfavoroffollowingsuchanevolutionaryapproach,argumentsbasedoninformation,behavior,andunderstanding.Attheoutsetofareformprocess,itisnotpossibletoforesee,letalonetoresolve,alltheproblemsthatwillemergeatlaterstages.Thuschangemustbeaprocessofadaptivelearning,notaprocessoffollowingafixedblueprint.TheFrenchhaveanexpressionthatonelearnscheminfaisant—onelearnsasonegoes.IntheJune13,1987People'sDaily,DengXiaopingsaid:

　　“Generallyspeaking,ourruralreformshaveproceededveryfast,andfarmershavebeenenthusiastic.Whattookuscompletelybysurprisewasthedevelopmentoftownshipandruralindustries.Allsortsofsmallenterprisesboomedinthecountryside,asifastrangearmyhadappearedsuddenlyfromnowhere.Thisisnottheachievementofourcentralgovernment.Everyyear,townshipandvillageenterprisesachieve20%growth.ThiswasnotsomethingIhadthoughtabout.Norhadtheothercomrades.Itsurprisedus.”[Quotedin:

Becker,Jasper2000.TheChinese.NewYork:

FreePress.p.68]

　　3.

　　ClimbtheMountainbyaZigzagPath:

Thereformpathmightbemorezigzagthanlinear.Forexample,atsomestageintheevolutionitmightbedesirabletodecentralizefurther,andyetatalaterstagetore-centralize.Financialinstitutionsthathaveasocialwelfarerolemightbeahelptoreformsintheearlystages,butcanthenbecomeahindranceatalaterstage.Elementsofsuccessinthepastmaybecomeinappropriateorobsoleteforthepresentorfutureeconomicstrategies.Forinstance,TVEswhichhavebeenkeytotherapidgrowthinthecoastalregion,maynotnecessarilybeappropriatevehiclesforthedevelopmentofthelaggingwesternregions:

comparedtothecoastalregions,muchofthewesternregionissparselypopulatedandthedensepopulationofthecoastalregionswasakeyelementinthebuildingofsuccessfulTVEs.

　　4.

　　RobustSolutions:

Thesolutionstoproblems,astheyarise,neednotbeperfect:

indeed,evenifperfectlyfine-tunedtoonestageinthetransition,theywouldnotbesoperfectlymatchedforthenext.Thekeyistolookforrobustsolutions,thatis,resilientsolutionsthatworkreasonablywellacross,orcanbeadaptedto,arangeofcircumstances.

　　AsChinamovesforwardalongitsownreformpath,itisimportanttorememberandmaintainthesebroadgeneralprinciples.Manyofthefailedreformsinsomeothertransitioneconomieswerebasedonthefalsehopesoffindingshort-cutsthatwouldproduceinstitutionalreformsalmostovernight（voucherprivatizationbeingoneexample）.Asnewchallengesarise,itisimportantthatChinaavoidthetemptationtograspforpanaceas.Newsolutionswillhavetobefound,butinthesearchforthenewsolutionsitisimportantnottoabandonthebasicprinciplesthathaveprovedsosuccessfuluptonow.

　　Whileaneconomicallysuccessfulindividualmightlookforwardtorelaxingandenjoyingawell-earnedretirement,thisisnevertrueforacountryasawhole.China'srecentsuccessesarecauseforreflectionandappreciationbuttheyshouldnotleadtoanyrelaxationinthereformefforts.Thenatureofthereformprocesschangedandwillchangeacrossthethreephases.Thefirstphase（agriculturalreforms）wasmoreplannedandbuiltuponlivingmemories.Thesecondphase（TVEs）waslessguided,moreexperimental,andbuiltuponsomerecentinstitutionalexperience.Nowthereformpathleadsintonewterritory.Thisischaracterizedbyacontinuationof:

unfinishedoldreforms（e.g.,reformsofthefinancialsectorandofthestate-ownedenterprisesorSOEs）;adversesideeffects（e.g.,laggingregionsandsectionsofthecommunity,budgetaryproblems,environmentaldeterioration,problemsingrainmarkets,excesscapacityinTVEs,andmajorproblemsinhealthandeducation）;andnewreformchallenges.

　　Hereitisimportanttoemphasize"thezigzagpathupthemountain."Intheearlierphasesofreforms,thefinancialsystem,inasense,maintainedthesocialsafetynetbyaccommodatingtheSOEsandothercollectiveenterprisesinanenterprise-basedsystemofsocialsupport（e.g.,housing,medicalcare,andpensions）.Moreover,theTVEscarriedtheburdenofnewgrowth.Inthenewphase,theunreformedfinancialinstitutionsandSOEsarenolongerappropriate,indeedarebecomingmajorburdens,andtheTVEswillneedtoundergoradicalchangeiftheyaretosurviveinamorecompetitiveenvironment.

　　§3.NewChallenges

　　Whataresomeofthosechallenges?

Theprimarynewchallengeisincreasedcompetitivenessastheoldsourcesofproductivitygrowth,suchastheenergyreleasedbyrelaxingtheconstraintsofthecommandeconomy,arerunningoutandastheproblemsofsideeffectsgrow.Thespecialproblemsofreducingpoverty,particularlyruralpoverty,areaddressedinmyspeechOvercomingPovertyinChinagivenatBeijingUniversitythisweek.

　　Thesecondbroadchallengeisjobopportunities.Estimatesvaryconsiderably,butduringthisdecadewellovera100millionnewjobopportunitieswillneedtoemergetoemploypeoplenolongerneededinagriculture,peoplebeingshedfromtheSOEsandTVEs,andpeoplenewlyenteringtheworkforce.Thissort