AFF5250 ASSIGNMENT GUD HOLDING LIMITED MONASH UNIVERSITYWord文档下载推荐.docx

AFF5250 ASSIGNMENT GUD HOLDING LIMITED MONASH UNIVERSITYWord文档下载推荐.docx

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2.CompanyOverview4

2.1.ProductsandServices4

2.2.OperatingRangeandMajorCustomers4

2.3.CurrentEvent2010/20115

3.ExternalEnvironment5

3.1.EconomicOverview5

3.2.IndustrialOverview6

3.3.Porter’sFiveForcesModel6

4.InternalEnvironmentAnalysis7

4.1.CorporateGovernanceAnalysis7

4.2.ShareholderAnalysis7

5.FinancialPerformanceAnalysis7

5.1.CommonSizeAnalysis7

5.2.TrendAnalysis8

5.3.RatioAnalysis8

6.McKinsey’s7SAssessment9

7.SWOTAnalysis10

8.GrowthStrategy10

8.1.StrategicMotivationforExpansionandAcquisition11

9.GrowthStrategyEvaluation11

9.1.CapitalBudgeting11

9.2.SensitivityAnalysisandDecision11

10.FinancingStrategy12

10.1.OptimalCapitalStructure12

10.2.InternalFunding13

10.3.DebtFunding13

10.4.EquityFunding13

10.5.FundingDecision14

11.RiskAssessment14

11.1.LiquidityRisk14

11.2.InterestRateRisk15

11.3.ExchangeRisk15

12.ForecastofGrowthStrategy15

12.1.MethodandAssumptionsofForecast15

12.2.IncomeStatementforecast16

13.DividendPolicy16

14.Conclusion17

Reference19

Appendix20

1.Introduction

1.1.Purpose

Thepurposeofthisreportistopresentanin-depthfinancialanalysisontheperformanceofGUDHoldingsLimited,andprovideafinanciallyjustifiedgrowthstrategyforthenextstrategicplanninghorizon,thenanalysetherecommendedgrowthstrategyandforecastthefinancialstatementofthefirm.

1.2.Scope

ThiscorporatetreasurymanagementanalysingreportwillstartwiththeinternalandexternalenvironmentanalysisaboutGUD,thenpresentthestrategyandevaluateitsinfluencesoncapitalbudgeting,sensitivityandfinancingstructure,riskmanagement.Atlast,thereportwillestimateandforecasttheincomestatementforthenextthreeyearthenanalysethecurrentdividendpolicyofGUDandrepresenttheadviseddividendpolicy.

1.3.Methodology

Thisreportwillmainlybaseonthefollowingqualitiveandquantitivemethodologiestoexpressandjustifytheargumentsandconclusion:

（1）Porter’sfiveforcesmodel;

（2）McKinsey’s7Sassessment;

（3）commonlyappliedcommonsize,trend,andratioanalysis;

（4）SWOTanalysis;

（5）Riskassessment;

（6）percentageofsalesmethod.

1.4.Limitation

Theanalysisisonlybasedonhistoricaldataandpublicavailableinformation,whichisconsideredtobeincomprehensivetoevaluatethefirmindepth.Duetothelimitedtimeandknowledge,thereportmaypresentunreasonableargumentwhichisnotmatchingthesituationofthetargetfirm.

2.CompanyOverview

GUDHoldingsLimitedistheholdingscompanyorownertoagroupofconsumerandindustrialbrands,whichincludeSunbeam,Oates,Dexion,Ryco,Wesfil,DaveyandLockFocus,etc.Basedonmeetingthespecificmarketdemandandacquiringthestrengthofcost-competitive,globalmanufacturers,GUDhasdiversifiedthebusinessesfocusingontheabovebrands.

2.1.ProductsandServices

TheproductsandservicesofGUDrangefromsmallelectricalappliancestosecuritysystem,evenindustrialandcommercialstorageequipmentandsolutions.Therebusinessesaredividedbythedistinguishingbrandsrespectively,Sunbeam,theleadingregionalsmallappliancebrand;

Davey,amajorbrandintheinternationallydynamicwaterproductssector;

RycoandWesfilintheautomotiveaftermarket;

Oates,thelocalmarketleaderinthecleaningproductsmarketsinbothretailandcommercialsegments;

LockFocus,theprincipalbrandinsecurityproductssegmentandDexion,thelargestAustralasian-ownedbusinessoperatinginindustrialandcommercialstoragemarkets（“GUDHoldingsAnnualReport”,2011）.ThemanufacturingcapabilityiscurrentlyretainedinLockFocus,DaveyandDexion.

2.2.OperatingRangeandMajorCustomers

Throughthediversityofitsactivities,GUDservicesabroadcustomerbasewhichincludesmostleadingretailersinAustraliaandNewZealand.Then,throughDavey,DexionandLockFocus,GUDhasagrowingpresenceinexportmarkets,servicingarangeofcustomersinEurope,theMiddleEast,SouthEastAsiaandNorthAmerica.

TheGroup'

scustomerbasespansdepartmentstores,massmerchants,hardwareoutlets,specialistelectricalretailers,automotiveaftermarketwholesalersandresellers,watersystemsdealers,swimmingpoolbuilders,retailpoolshops,locksmiths,originalequipmentmanufacturersandcommercialandindustrialcorporates.

2.3.CurrentEvent2010/2011

GUDhascompletedtheacquisitionofDexionon1thSeptember2010andDavey’sFrenchandSpanishdistributorsofswimmingpoolproductsinJune2011whichwillprovideapotentialfuturegrowthonenteringinItsternEuropeanmarket.Thecompanyhasinvested9.8millionAUD（AustralianDollar）pre-taxinintegrationandrestructuringprogramtoimproveoperationalefficienciesandreduceoperatingcostsonDexionandDavey.AccordingtoGUDResultforHalfYearEnded31thDecember2011（2011）,therevenueincreasedby4%to311millionAUD,netprofitfellby1%to23.0millionAUD,morespecificfinancialpositionanalysiswillbeexpressedinthefollowingcontent.

3.ExternalEnvironment

Duringthefinancialyearsof2008to2011,theautomotiveaftermarketproductsmanufacturedbyRyco,WesfilandGossprovideagreatcontributionforGUDwhichconstitutes45%increasingto53.2%ofthetotalreturnforGUDduringthisperiod.Inthefollowingcontent,thereportconsidersthatautocomponentproductsarethemajorbusinessforGUD（seeAppendix3-1）.

3.1.EconomicOverview

AccordingtoAppendix3-2,theASXAllOrdinaryIndexisnotstationary,butsincebetaofGUDstockis0.69,theexternallyeconomicenvironmentcontributesbenefittoGUD,whichmaintainsat4400pointsafterthe2007FinancialCrisis.ItimpliesthattheeconomicenvironmentinAustraliaismorestableandcontainslowerriskratherthanthecountriesstillhavenotgotridofthefinancialcrisis,suchasGreeceandItaly.

3.2.IndustrialOverview

Theautomotiveaftermarketproductsarebelongingtotheautocomponentindustrywhichgrewby3.6%in2010toreachavalueof603.5millionUSD（USDollar）.Datamonitor（2011）forecaststhatthetotalvalueofautocomponentindustrywillreach746.5millionUSDincreasingby23.7%in2015comparedwith2010.Butthemarketishighlycompetitiveandheavilyfragmented,eventheleadingplayersjustoccupysmallsharesofglobalrevenues.

ThemajorcompetitorsofGUDinautocomponentmarketlistedonAustralianStockExchangeareAutomotiveHoldingsGroup（AHE）in2005andBrevilleGroupLimited（BRG）in1999.Highcompetitionisthesymbolofautomotivecomponentmarket,eventheleadingplayer,Bridgestone（US）,justgeneratesa3.5%shareofindustry’svalue.

3.3.Porter’sFiveForcesModel

Graph1:

AnalysingResultofPorter’sFiveForcesModel

DetailedjustificationisincludedinAppendix3-3.

4.InternalEnvironmentAnalysis

4.1.CorporateGovernanceAnalysis

TherearefourNon-ExecutiveDirectors（includingtheChairman）andtwoExecutiveDirector（theManagingDirectorandChiefExecutive,andtheFinanceDirector）formedtheBoardofGUD;

accordingtoAppendix4-1,theManagingDirectoristhebiggestbeneficiarywhichimpliesthatthereisnoagencyproblemarisingfromthefirm.Tofulfiltheduty,GUDhascompliedthegovernanceframeworkandpracticeswiththeASXCorporateGovernanceCouncil'

sPrinciplesandRecommendations,releasedinrevisedforminAugust2007（seeAppendix4-2）;

andprovidedspecificstandardforperformanceevaluationandremuneration（seeAppendix4-3）,riskmanagementandinternalcontrols,andgovernancepolicies.

4.2.ShareholderAnalysis

ThetotalamountofGUD’sshareholdersis11669,asexhibitedinAppendix4-4,mostofthetwentylargestshareholdersasat12thAugust2011areinstitutionalinvestors,thefirstthreeshareholdersareNationalNomineesLimited,HSBCCustodyNominees（Australia）Limited,JPMorganNomineesAustraliaLimitedwhichholdGUDsharesfor10.33%,7.52%and6.11%respectively.Theshareholdersholdmorethan100001sharesconstituting43.70%oftotalshares.

5.FinancialPerformanceAnalysis

5.1.CommonSizeAnalysis

Forincomestatement,thetotalexpensesprovideasignificanteffectonreduceprofit,whicharearound84.84%oftotaltradingrevenue,whichindicatesthatGUDhasspenthugeamountrevenuetorecovertheoperatingexpenses.Thenetprofitaftertaxexpenseisaround7.67%oftradingrevenuewhichishigherthantheaveragerisk-freerate5.24%weeklyaveragefrom2007to2011

Forbalancesheet,themajorcur