概率论与数理统计英文文献Word文件下载.docx
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Randomphenomenon
Fromrandomphenomenon,inthenatureandreallife,somethingsareinterrelatedandcontinuousdevelopment.Intherelationshipbetweeneachotheranddeveloping,accordingtowhetherthereisacausalrelationship,verydifferentcanbedividedintotwocategories:
oneisdeterministicphenomenon.Thiskindofphenomenonisundercertainconditions,willleadtocertainresults.Forexample,undernormalatmosphericpressure,waterheatedto100degreesCelsius,isboundtoaboil.Thislinkisbelongtotheinevitabilitybetweenthings.Usuallyinnaturalscienceisinterdisciplinarystudiesandknowtheinevitability,seekingthiskindofinevitablephenomenon.Anotherkindisthephenomenonofuncertainty.Thiskindofphenomenonisundercertainconditions,theresultisuncertain.Thesameworkersonthesamemachinetools,forexample,processinganumberofthesamekindofparts,theyarethesizeofthetherewillalwaysbealittledifference.Asanotherexample,underthesameconditions,artificialacceleratinggerminationtestofwheatvarieties,eachtreeseedgerminationisalsodifferent,thereisstrengthandsoonerorlater,respectively,andsoon.Whyinthesamesituation,willappearthiskindofuncertainresults?
Thisisbecause,wesay"
sameconditions"
referstosomeofthemainconditions,inadditiontothesemainconditions,therearemanyminorconditionsandtheaccidentalfactorispeoplecan'
tinadvanceonebyonetograsp.Becauseofthis,inthiskindofphenomenon,wecan'
tusetheinevitabilityofcauseandeffect,theresultsofindividualphenomenoninadvancetomakesureoftheanswer.Therelationshipbetweenthingsisbelongtoaccidental,thisphenomenoniscalledaccidentalphenomenon,orarandomphenomenon.
Innature,intheproduction,life,randomphenomenonisverycommon,thatistosay,thereisalotofrandomphenomenon.Issuesuchas:
sportslotteryofthewinningNumbers,thesameproductionlineproduction,thelifeofthebulb,etc.,isarandomphenomenon.Sowesay:
randomphenomenonis:
underthesameconditions,manytimesthesametestorsurveythesamephenomenon,theresultsarenotidentical,andunabletoaccuratelypredicttheresultsofthenext.Randomphenomenaintheuncertaintiesoftheresults,itisbecauseofsomeminor,causedbytheaccidentalfactors.
Randomphenomenononthesurface,seemstobemessy,thereisnoregularphenomenon.Butpracticehasprovedthatifthesamekindofalargenumberofrepeatedrandomphenomenon,itsoverallpresentcertainregularity.Alargenumberofsimilarrandomphenomenaofthiskindofregularity,asweobservedincreaseinthenumberofthenumberoftimesandmoreobvious.Flipacoin,forexample,eachthrowisdifficulttojudgeonthatside,butifrepeatedmanytimesoftossthecoin,itwillbemoreandmoreclearlyfindthemupisapproximatelythesamenumber.
Wecallthispresentedbyalargenumberofsimilarrandomphenomenaofcollectiveregularity,iscalledthestatisticalregularity.Probabilitytheoryandmathematicalstatisticsisthestudyofalargenumberofsimilarrandomphenomenastatisticalregularityofthemathematicaldisciplines.
Theemergenceanddevelopmentofprobabilitytheory
Probabilitytheorywascreatedinthe17thcentury,itisbythedevelopmentofinsurancebusiness,butfromthegambler'
srequest,isthatmathematiciansthoughtthesourceofprobleminprobabilitytheory.
Asearlyasin1654,therewasagamblermaytiredtothemathematicianPASCALproposesaquestiontroublinghimforalongtime:
"
meettwogamblersbettingonanumberofbureau,whowillwinthefirstminningswins,allbetswillbewho.Butwhenoneofthemwinsa(a<
m),theotherwonb(b<
m)bureau,gamblingaborted.Q:
howshouldbetspointsmethodisonlyreasonable?
"
Whoin1642inventedtheworld'
sfirstmechanicaladditionofcomputer.
Threeyearslater,in1657,theDutchfamousastronomy,physics,andamathematicianhuygensistryingtosolvethisproblem,theresultsintoabookconcerningthecalculationofagameofchance,thisistheearliestprobabilitytheoryworks.
Inrecentdecades,withthevigorousdevelopmentofscienceandtechnology,theapplicationofprobabilitytheorytothenationaleconomy,industrialandagriculturalproductionandinterdisciplinaryfield.Manyofappliedmathematics,suchasinformationtheory,gametheory,queuingtheory,cybernetics,etc.,arebasedonthetheoryofprobability.
Probabilitytheoryandmathematicalstatisticsisabranchofmathematics,randomtheysimilardisciplinesarecloselylinked.Butshouldpointoutthatthetheoryofprobabilityandmathematicalstatistics,statisticalmethodsareeachhavetheirowncontaindifferentcontent.
Probabilitytheory,isbasedonalargenumberofsimilarrandomphenomenastatisticalregularity,thepossibilitythataresultofrandomphenomenontomakeanobjectiveandscientificjudgment,thepossibilityofitsoccurrenceforthissizetomakequantitativedescription;
Comparethesizeofthesepossibilities,studythecontactbetweenthem,thusformingasetofmathematicaltheoriesandmethods.
Mathematicalstatistics-istheapplicationofprobabilitytheorytostudythephenomenonoflargenumberofrandomregularity;
Tothroughthescientificarrangementofanumberofexperiments,thestatisticalmethodgivenstricttheoreticalproof;
Anddeterminingvariousmethodsappliedconditionsandreliabilityofthemethod,theformula,theconclusionandlimitations.Wecanfromasetofsamplestodecidewhethercanwithquitelargeprobabilitytoensurethatajudgmentiscorrect,andcancontroltheprobabilityoferror.
-isastatisticalmethodprovidesmethodsareusedinavarietyofspecificissues,itdoesnotpayattentiontothemethodaccordingtothetheory,mathematicalreasoning.
Shouldpointoutthattheprobabilityandstatisticsontheresearchmethodhasitsparticularity,andothermathematicalsubjectofthemaindifferencesare:
First,becausetherandomphenomenastatisticalregularityisacollectiverule,musttopresentinalargenumberofsimilarrandomphenomena,therefore,observation,experiment,researchisthecornerstoneofthesubjectresearchmethodsofprobabilityandstatistics.But,asabranchofmathematics,itstillhasthedefinitionofthisdiscipline,axioms,theorems,thedefinitionsandaxioms,theoremsarederivedfromtherandomruleofnature,butthesedefinitionsandaxioms,theoremsiscertain,thereisnorandomness.
Second,inthestudyofprobabilitystatistics,usingthe"
bypartconcludedall"
methodsofstatisticalinference.Thisisbecauseittheobjectoftheresearch-therangeofrandomphenomenonisverybig,atthetimeofexperiment,observation,notallmaybeunnecessary.Butbythispartofthedataobtainedfromsomeconclusions,concludedthatthereliabilityoftheconclusiontoallthescope.
Third,therandomnessoftherandomphenomenon,referstotheexperiment,investigationbeforespeaking.Aftertherealresultsforeachtest,itcanonlygettheresultsoftheuncertaintyofacertainresult.Whenwestudythisphenomenon,itshouldbenotedbeforethetestcanfinditselfinherentlawofthisphenomenon.
Thecontentofthetheoryofprobability
Probabilitytheoryasabranchofmathematics,itstudiesthecontentgeneralincludetheprobabilityofrandomevents,theregularityofstatisticalindependenceanddeeperadministrativelevels.
Probabilityisaquantitativeindexofthepossibilityofrandomevents.Inindependentrandomevents,ifaneventfrequencyinallevents,inalargerrangeofstablearoundafixedconstant.Youcanthinktheprobabilityoftheincidenttotheconstant.Foranyeventprobabilityvaluemustbebetween0and1.
Thereisacertaintypeofrandomevents,ithastwocharacteristics:
first,onlyafinitenumberofpossibleresults;
Second,theresultsthepossibilityofthesame.Havethecharacteristicsofthetworandomphenomenoncalled"
classicalsubscheme"
.
Intheobjectiveworld,therearealargenumberofrandomphenomena,theresultofarandomphenomenonposesarandomevent.Ifth