fabdu41prepared文档格式.docx

fabdu41prepared文档格式.docx

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ithasdulyfallenby16%againstthedollarand19%againsttheeurosincetheendofSeptember（whenitwasclearthatMrAbewasheadingforpower）.

Thecomplaints,however,areoverdone.RatherthancondemningtheactionsofAmericaandJapan,therestoftheworldshouldpraisethem—andtheeurozonewoulddowelltofollowtheirexample.

Turningswordsintoprintingpresses

ThewarrhetoricimpliesthatAmericaandJapanaredirectlysuppressingtheircurrenciestoboostexportsandsuppressimports.Thatwouldbeazero-sumgamewhichcoulddegenerateintoprotectionismandacollapseintrade.Butthisisnotwhattheyaredoing.Whencentralbankshaveloweredtheirshort-terminterestratetonearzeroandthusexhaustedtheirconventionalmonetarymethods,theyturntounconventionalmeanssuchasQEorconvincingpeoplethatinflationwillrise.Bothactionsshouldlowerreal（inflation-adjusted）interestrates.ThismaynowbehappeninginJapan.

Theprincipalgoalofthispolicyistostimulatedomesticspendingandinvestment.Asaby-product,lowerrealratesusuallyweakenthecurrencyaswell,andthatinturntendstodepressimports.Butifthepolicyissuccessfulinrevivingdomesticdemand,itwilleventuallyleadtohigherimports.

Aggressivemonetaryexpansioninabigeconomysufferingfromweakdemandandsubduedinflationisgoodfortherestoftheworld,notbad.TheInternationalMonetaryFundconcludedthatAmerica’sfirstroundsofmonetarylaxityboosteditstradingpartners’outputbyasmuchas0.3%.Thedollardidweaken,butthatbecameamotivationforJapan’sstepped-upassaultondeflation.ThecombinedmonetaryboostonoppositesidesofthePacifichasbeenapowerfulelixir（灵丹妙药）forglobalinvestorconfidence.

Europeanofficials,fearfulthattheircountries’exportsarecaughtinthecrossfire（suffer）,haveentertainedloopy（crazy）ideassuchasdirectlymanagingthevalueoftheeuro.Instead,theeurozoneshouldstopgrumblingandstartemulatingJapan:

theEuropeanCentralBankshouldeasemonetarypolicy,ifnecessarythroughQE.Thiswouldbothblunt（makeweaker）theeuro’sriseandcombatrecessioninthezone’speriphery.

Thatoptionmaynotbeavailabletoemergingmarkets,suchasBrazil,whereinflationremainsaproblem.Intheircase,limitedcapitalcontrolsmaybeasensibleshort-termdefenceagainstdestabilisinginflowsofhotmoney.

ShouldJapan’sattackontheyenmovebeyondrhetorictoactualinterventioninthemarketstodriveitsvaluedown,thentherestoftheworldwouldberighttocondemnit.Untilthathappens,othercountriesshouldavoidgroundlessfearmongeringaboutcurrencywars.Financeministersandcentralbanksshouldbefightingstagnation,noteachother.

Goldandsterling

Theoddcouple

ALTHOUGHtheyenhascapturedmostofthecurrencyheadlinessincethestartoftheyear,sterlinghasbeenalmostasweak.ItstartedtheyearworthY141andisnowaroundY143.Againstthedollar,thepoundhasweakenedfrom$1.62to$1.53;

againsttheeuro,thedrophasbeenfrom€1.23to€1.145,a6.9%decline.Itdoesn'

tsoundmuchbutrememberthatthepoundwasonlyallowedtofall6%fromitspegtotheD-MarkundertheoldExchangeRateMechanism.

Alookattoday'

sdataisenoughtotellyouwhythepoundisfalling.InflationisabovetheBankofEngland'

s2%targetandsettoremainsoforthenexttwoyearsiftheBank'

sforecastiscorrect.Butthelatestmonetarypolicycommitteeminutesshowthatthreeoftheninememberswantedmoremonetarypolicylooseningintheformofquantitativeeasing.Fairenough,youmightsay,theBankismimickingtheFed'

s"

dualmandate（dualmandateofstablepricesandmaximumemployment）"

andtargetingemploymentaswellasinflation.Butfiguresouttodayshowunemploymentisfalling,asithasbeenslowlybutsteadily（an156,000declineoverthelast12months）;

employmentisatanall-timehigh（as,admittedly,isthepopulation）.

Intheminutes,theBankingeniouslypointsto（suggestthatsthistrueorlikely）highergiltyields（10-yearyieldsareup20basispointsoverthelastmonth）actedasatighteningofmonetarypolicy,andbolsteredtheargumentformoreeasing.But,ofcourse,ifinternationalinvestorsarelosingfaithinBritishpolicybecausetheythinkitistooloose,moreeasingmight 

leadtomoregiltsales.

Themathsisfairlysimple.Ifyouareanoverseasinvestor,a2.2%yieldfrom10-yeargiltsdoesn'

tallowyoutotoleratemuchinthewayofcurrencylosses,certainlynot6.9%insevenweeks（theequivalentofthreeyears'

income）.True,investorsmightbetemptediftheythoughtaone-offdeclinehadoccurred,andthenewcurrencyratewouldbedefended.ButJamieDannhauseratLombardStreetResearchwritesthat

Marketsshouldnowbeundernoillusions-givenconsiderablerisksandthedangerofpermanentsupply-sidedamage,theMPCwillcontinuetolookthroughabove-targetinflationinordertokeepthepoundcheapandstimulateeconomicactivity.

WhileGeoffreyKendrickofNomurawritesthat

systematicallyforecastingadisinflationthatnevermaterialiseshaslongexposedtheBanktoridicule.Weview（theBank'

s）latestforecastsasmorerealistic,butwithoutanywillingnesstorespond,itsupportstheviewofthosewhosuggesttheBankisactivelyseekingtoinflateawaydebts.Westillseethisviewasabitextreme,butcannotignorethewillingnessofpolicymakerstoessentiallysocialisemalinvestmentratherthanallowingthemtobeliquidatedbythosewhomadethem

TheBofE'

sstancecouldbeseenaspartofageneralcommitmenttoeasypolicybycentralbanks.SirMervynwillsoonbereplacedbyMarkCarney（orChopperCarney,ashehasalreadybeendubbed,atributeto"

HelicopterBen"

Bernanke）,theFedhasprecommittedtolowrates,theECBwilldo"

whateverittakes"

andtheBankofJapanwillsoonchooseanew（presumablypro-inflation）governor.

Givenallthat,theoddthingisthattheotherassettomaketheheadlineshasbeengold,whichhasdroppedbelow$1600anounce.Goldcanbeviewedasacurrency,andwithmostcountrieshappytoseetheircurrenciesdecline,onemightthinkbullionwouldbenefit,notsuffer.Goldisalsoaninflationhedge;

thelatestBankofAmericaMerrillLynchsurveyshowsanet40%offundmanagersexpectinflationtorise.Sowhatishappening?

ChrisWatlingatLongviewEconomicspointsoutthatmineproductionhaspickedupinthelastthreeyearswhileinvestmentdemandforgoldhasstartedtodecline.Themetalnowseemsalittlepriceytojewellerybuyers.

Thecurrentproblemforgoldisthesamefactorthathelpedfuel12straightyearsofpricegains;

thereisnoobviouswayofvaluingit.Ithasnoyieldorearnings.Sogoldbullsmightberighttoworryaboutinflationinthelongrun.Butperhapsallthosefears（andmore）arealreadyreflectedinthegoldprice.Themetalmayalsohavebenefitedfrommomentumtraderswhojumpedontothetrend,particularlyviatheETFs;

gold'

slossofmomentumoverthelast12monthsmaybedrivingthesmartmoneyelsewhere.GeorgeSoroshascuthisholdingsrecently.Achangeintrendforgoldmayrequiresomesignsthatactualconsumerinflationisrising;

theUSdataareouttomorrowbutthepreviousmonth'

sfigures（flatonthemonth,1.7%ontheyear）shownotmuchishappening.

Thefalloftheuniversalbank

Beforethegreatcrashof2008,theuniversalbanksswaggered（walkinanextremelyproudandconfidentway）aroundLondon,HongKongandNewYork.Barclays,Citigroup,CreditSuisse,DeutscheandUBSimaginedtheycouldbeallthingstoinvestorsin（almost）allcornersoftheglobe.Fiveyearson,in2013,suchambitionswillseemquaint（attractiveinanunusualorold-fashionedway）astheAmericanandEuropeanbanksfindthemselveseithershrinkingfurtherorincreasinglymarginalised.

Farfromcompetingineverycategoryfromassetmanagementtoequityderivativesandfixedincome,theuniversalbankswillabandonbusinessesandlocations,throughforceddisposalsorseverecost-cutting.Fromtheruins,aneworderwillemerge:

onewithdifferentcapitalstructures,newcreditchannelsandacontinuedshiftinpowertowardsAsianinstitutions,someofwhichwillbeeitherpartlyorwhollygovernment-owned.

Thedeclineoftheuniversalbankwillpassunlamented.Thepromiseofthecross-sellingfinancialsupermarkethaslongbeeneclipsed（makesthseemunimportant）bythedestructionofshareholdervalueafterthecrash.SandyWeill,universalbanking’sevangelist（布道者）-in-chiefwhenatthehelmofCitigroup,recanted（公开放弃）publiclyin2012.In2013,combiningstolidutilitybankingandbonus-hungryinvestmentbankingunderoneroofwilllookevenmorequestionable.AsoneCityofLondonveteransays:

“It’slikeputtingTescotog