发展和鼓励可再生能源技术翻译secretWord下载.docx

发展和鼓励可再生能源技术翻译secretWord下载.docx

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1.1ProjectBackground

Sinceitsinceptioninthe1970s,theU.S.DepartmentofEnergy（DOE）hasoperatedasubstantialprograminthedevelopmentandencouragementofrenewableenergytechnologies.Aspartofitsongoingefforttodocumentthestatusandpotentialofthesetechnologies,DOE,alongwithitsnationallaboratoriesandsupportorganizations,developedthefirstsetofRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations（TCs）in1989.TheTCsweredesignedtorespondtoDOE’sneedforasetofconsistentcostandperformancedatatosupportthedevelopmentofthebiennialNationalEnergyPolicyPlans.ThatfirstsetofTCswassubsequentlyusedtosupporttheanalysesthatwereperformedin1991byDOEfortheNationalEnergyStrategy.TheTCswereupdatedin1993,butuntilnowhadnotbeenformallypublishedandexistedonlyindraftform.

TheElectricPowerResearchInstitute（EPRI）,operatingonbehalfofitsmemberutilities,hasconductedaprogramintheassessment,evaluationandadvancementofrenewablepowertechnologiessincethemid-1970s.Inthatrole,EPRIhasbeencalleduponbyitsmembers,andoftenbytheenergycommunityingeneral,toprovideobjectiveinformationonthestatusandoutlookforrenewablesinprospectiveelectric-powerapplications.Towardthataim,EPRIhasjoinedwithDOEtoproducethissetofRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations.

ThisjointprojectisoneofanumberofactivitiesthatDOEandEPRIareconductingunderthejointDOE-EPRISustainableElectricPartnershipenteredintoformallybybothorganizationsinOctober1994.ItbuildsuponanumberofactivitiesconductedjointlybyDOEandEPRIoverthepasttwodecades.

1.2Objectives,ApproachandScope

PurposeandAudience:

Inresponsetogrowinginterestinrenewablepowertechnologiesandtheneedforconsistent,objectiveassessmentsoftechnologyperformanceandcosts,DOEandEPRIcollaboratedtopreparetheRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations（TCs）presentedinthisdocument.Together,throughthisdocument,DOEandEPRIaimtoprovidefortheenergycommunityandthegeneralpublicanobjectivepictureofthestatusandexpectationsfortherenewablepowertechnologiesinelectric-powerapplicationsintheUnitedStates.TheseTCs

representaconsensusbetweenDOEandEPRIonthecurrentstatusandprojecteddevelopmentpathoffiverenewableelectricitygeneratingtechnologies:

biomass,geothermal,photovoltaics,solarthermalandwind.Inaddition,recognizingtherolethatstoragecanplayinenhancingthevalueofsomerenewablepowerplants,aTCforstoragetechnologies,withastrongemphasisonbatteries,isincludedinanappendix.TheTCscanservetwodistinctpurposes.First,theyaredesignedtobeareferencetoolforenergy-policyanalystsandpower-systemplannersseekingobjectivecostandperformancedata.Second,theextensivediscussionsoftheassumptionsthatunderliethedataprovidevaluableinsightsforR&

DprogramplannersastheystrivetoprioritizefutureR&

Defforts.

Approach:

Buildingonthebestavailableinformationandexperiencefrommanyyearsofdirectinvolvementinthedevelopmentandassessmentofrenewableenergytechnologies,expertsfromDOE,itsnationallaboratoriesandsupportorganizationspreparedcharacterizationsofthemajorrenewabletechnologies.Theseweresubjectedtoin-depthreviewbyEPRItechnicalstaffinrenewablesandselectedoutsidereviewers,andthendiscussedatlengthintwotechnicalworkshopsinvolvingthewritersandthereviewers.Thecharacterizationswerethenrevised,reflectingdiscussionsatandsubsequenttotheworkshops,resultinginthisconsensusdocument.Insomecases,EPRIstaffparticipatedinpreparationofoverviewsections.

DocumentScope:

TheTCsdonotdescribespecificproductsorhardwareconfigurations.Theydescribetypicalsystemconfigurationsatfiveyearincrementsthroughtheyear2030,basedonaprojectedevolutionofthetechnologiesduring1-2thattimeframe.Theyoftenportraychangesinexpectedtechnologyconfigurationovertime.Allowingachangingconfigurationensuresthat,ineachtimeframediscussed,theTCrepresentsthemostcost-effectiveconfigurationprojectedtobeavailableinthattimeframe.Forexample,thesolarthermalpowertowerevolvesfromahybridplantwithaconventionalreceivertoasolar-onlyplantwithanadvancedreceiver.TheTCsdonotattempttopickwinnersamongavarietyofchoices.Inthatspirit,thinfilmPVsystemsare,forexample,describedonlyinagenericway,notspecifyinganyparticularthinfilmtechnologyinanygiventimeframe.ThisviewofthetechnologyfuturemirrorstheR&

DportfolioapproachthatDOEtakes,allowingthetechnologyitselfandthemarketplacetodeterminewinnersandlosers.

EachTCshouldbethoughtofasadescriptionofthattechnologyinaparticularapplication,

typicallyasagridconnectedsystemforbulkpowersupply.However,someTCsdobrieflydescribeotherapplicationsthatcouldusesubstantiallythesametechnologyconfiguration.

TheseTCsdifferfromEPRI’sTechnicalAssessmentGuide（TAG™）inthattheyprovidemoreextensivediscussionsoftheexpectedtechnologyevolutionthrough2030.However,thecostandperformancedatapresentedherearebeingusedasabasisforTAG™revisionsthatarecurrentlyinprogress.

SimilartotheTAG™,theseTCsdonotdescribearecommendedeconomicanalysismethodology,butinsteaddescribevariousapproachesthatcouldbetakentocalculatelevelizedcostofenergyorotherappropriatefinancialfiguresofmerit.Theseapproachesspanarangeofpossibleownershipscenariosinaderegulatedutilityenvironment.

CautionaryNote:

Thecostandperformanceinformationpresentedrepresentthebestjudgmentsoftheindividualsinvolvedinthepreparationandreviewofthisdocument.Asthesetechnologiesenterthecommercialmarketplace,normalcompetitiveforcesandcommercialexperiencemayhaveimpactsthataredifficulttopredictatthistime.Forexample,thereareindicationsthatpricesforsomeconventionalpower-plantcomponentsandassociatedengineeringservicesaredroppingascompetitioninpowergenerationbecomesmorewidespread.Basedonveryrecentcommercialexperience,thistrendisalreadyreflectedinthegeothermal-hydrothermalflash-steamplantcostspresentedinthisdocument.Similarcostimpactsmaybeobservedinotherrenewablepowerplantsemployingconventionalthermalgenerationcomponentsoncethetechnologiesbecomeestablishedsufficientlytoattractmultiplecommercialsuppliers.Readersareurgedtousecautioninapplyingnumericaldatafromthisdocumentincommercialsituationswithoutconsultingengineeringfirmsactivelyinvolvedinthecommercialmarketplace.

RelationshiptoOngoingRenewablesProgramsatDOEandEPRI

Thetechnologiesdiscussedinthisdocumentareconsideredbytherenewablescommunity,andbythemanagementsoftheDOEandEPRIrenewablesprograms,tohavegoodpotentialforcontributingsignificantlytotheU.S.electricalenergysupply.Consequently,thesetechnologiescontinuetoreceivetechnicalandmarket-developmentsupportwithintheprogramsofDOEandEPRI.Ofcourse,thereisnoguaranteethatallofthesetechnologieswilldevelopandcontributeasprojectedinthisdocument.Rather,theirindividualprospectsandroleswilldependnotonly

onthedegreeofsupportreceived,butalsoonthepaceofprogressandonsocietalneedsandpriorities.Ultimately,themarketplace,reflectingbothcommercialandsocietalforces,willdecide.

Development-SupportAssumption

Theprojectedprogressforthesetechnologiesisbasedontheassumptionthatrobustprogramscontinueinbothtechnologyandmarketdevelopment.Ingeneral,theseprogramsneedbothpublicandprivatesectorsupport,withthebalanceshiftingmoretowardthecommercialsectorastechnicalmaturityisapproached.Ifsupportforaparticulartechnologyiscurtailed,thentheprojectedprogressalmostcertainlywillnotoccur.

1.3GenericBenefitsandIssues

Thebenefitsofusingrenewableenergyresourcesaremany.Mostofthesebenefitsarisefromtheirvirtuallyinexhaustiblenature.Solarandwindresourcesarereplenishedonadailybasis.Biomasscanbegrownthroughmanagedagriculturalprogramstoprovidecontinuoussourcesoffuel.Geothermalpowerisextractedfromthevirtuallyunlimitedthermalenergyintheearth’scrust.RenewableenergyresourcesarebroadlyavailableacrosstheU.S.Certainregions,however,tendtohavemoreaccessibleresourceofonetypethananother.Figure1illustratesthisdiversity.Forexample,intheMidwest,biomassandwindresourcesareexcellent,asisthesolarradiationneededforflat-platephotovoltaics.IntheSouthwest,highlevelsofdirectnormalinsolationare

ideallysuitedtosolarthermalandsunlight-concentrationphotovoltaictechnologies.GeothermalresourcesareconcentratedinthewesternpartsoftheU.S.Theavailabilityofeachoftherenewableresourcesisexploredfurtherinthetechnologyoverviewsinthisdocument.

Thebenefitsofrenewableenergyextendbeyondabundanceanddiversity.Asindigenousresources,theyfosterbothlocalcontrolandeconomicgrowth.Aninvestmentinrenewableenergycontributestolocaleconomicsecurity.Inaddition,theincorporationofrenewablesinagenerationportfoliomayreducetherisksassociatedwithfluctuatingfossil-fuelpricesandsupplies.

Asrenewableenergytechnologiesbecomemorecost-competitive,theirtrueeconomicbenefitsarebeingrealized.Sincemanyrenewableenergyplantsdonotneedtobebuiltinlargescaletoachievethelowestpossibleplantcosts,theycanbe