Greek withdrawal from the EurozoneWord文件下载.docx
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ThemostimmediatecauseofthecrisisisGreece'
snewgovernmentfoundGreece'
sdebtproblemsfromlastgovernmentconcealed.ThenTheGreekgovernmentannouncedthatthebudgetdeficittoGDPratioisexpectedtoreached12.7%atNovember2009,andoutstandingdebttoGDPratioisexpectedto113%.Thesetwodatafarexceedsthe"
StabilityandGrowthPact"
whichtheEUstandardssignedin1997.
ConventionprovidesthatthebalanceofthefiscaldeficitanddebttoGDPratioofmaximumlimitof3%and60%respectively.Worse,accordingtodatareleasedbyEurostatshowedthattheGreekbudgetdeficitshareofGDPaccountedfor13.6%,higherthantheGreekgovernmentexpectedalot.Themarketbegantopanic,asharpriseinGreekbondyieldsandCDS(Creditdefaultswap)prices.
OnDecember2009,thetotalGreekgovernmentdebtis300billioneuros.AccordingtoGreece'
sfiscalsituationdeterioratedmarkedly,thethreenationallyrecognizedstatisticalratingorganizationshavestartedtoGreece'
ssovereigncreditratingdowngrade.
OnDecember8,2009FitchRatings(It'
soneofthethreenationallyrecognizedstatisticalratingorganizations)announcedGreece'
ssovereigncreditratingfrom"
A-"
reducedto"
BBB+"
outlookisnegative,ThisisGreece'
ssovereigncreditratingforthefirsttimefelltoA-levellessinthepast10years.
Affectedbythenews,globalstockmarketsfell,theGreekstockmarketfell6percent,theeurofellsharplyagainstthedollar.
Atthesametime,FitchloweredthecreditratingoffiveGreekbanks.
FitchsaidthedowngradedecisionreflectstheconcernsabouttheGreekmedium-termpublicfinances,coupledwiththecredibilityoftheGreekfinancialinstitutionsandthepolicysideofthenegativefactors,itisdifficulttodeterminewhetherGreececangetabalanced,sustainableeconomicrecovery"
OnDecember16,2009evening,Standard&
Poor'
s(AnAmericanfinancialservicescompany)announcedthatGreece'
slong-termsovereigncreditratingloweredonestep,from"
.
Standard&
swarnedthatiftheGreekgovernmentcannotimprovethefinancialsituationintheshortterm,thereislikelytofurtherreduceGreece'
ssovereigncreditrating.
ThisisthesecondtimetheGreekcreditratingdowngradeinaweek.
AnotherratingagencyMoody'
shasincludedinthewatchlistGreece,andpossiblycutGreece'
screditrating.
Sovereigncreditratingwasloweredfrequently,resultinginasubstantialincreaseinthecostofGreekgovernmentborrowinginthemarket,borrowingmoredifficult.
And2010istheGreekgovernmenttorepaymaturingdebtconcentratedperiod,theGreekgovernmentneedsatleast54billioneurostomeetitsfundingneeds.
Greecefellintoitsworstdebtcrisisandpanicofothereuro-zonecountries.
Bytheendof2009,Greecehasbeeninsolvent,nearlybankrupt,TheGreekdebtcrisisbrokeout.
2.DevelopmentofGreekdebtcrisis
Aftertheendof2009inGreece'
ssovereigncreditratingwasloweredbytheinternationalcreditratingagency,GreekgovernmentbondsCDSpriceshavebeenrising,Itwasupto421basispointsinJanuary,2010.AndTheeuroagainsttheU.S.dollarexchangeratefellby8%in10days.
Atthebeginningof2010,theGreekgovernmenthasannouncedthatin2009thebalanceofthedeficitanddebttoGDPratioincreasedto13.6%and115.1%.
Greece'
ssovereigndebtcrisishasnotbeeneased,andmoreserious.
OnApril27,2010,thestandard&
sdowngradedGreece'
ssovereigncreditratingtojunk,leadingtoariseinyieldsonGreekgovernmentbonds.
Asthesovereigncreditratingisreduced,thecostofraisingcapitaltogetridofthecrisishasbeengreatlyimproved.
RelevanteconomicdatasuggestthattheseverityoftheGreekdebtproblemhasbeenfarexceededmarketexpectations,theEUandtheeurozonegovernmentrealizedthatthesovereigndebtcrisisinGreecehasgraduallyspread.TheEuropeanUniongovernmentdecidedtostarttheGreekrescuemechanisminMay2ndofthesameyear.
GreeceandtheEuropeanUnionandIMFreachedarescueagreementinMay,Greecetoobtainatotalof110billioneurosinloans(Eurozoneinvested80billioneuros,IMFinvested30billioneuros),
therateis5%.
Asaconditiontoobtainloanassistance,theGreekgovernmentmustbecommittedtothenext3yearsthroughavarietyoffiscalpolicy,tobudgetlose30billioneurosonthebasis,andby2014,thedeficitratedroppedto3%.
TheGreekgovernmentissuedacorrespondingausterityplan,
ThenledtoamajorstrikeinGreeceandthebloodyconflictinMay5,2010
TheGreekdebtcrisishascausedaprofoundimpactonitsnationallife.
AftertheGreekdebtcrisis,investorsbegantopayattentionandconcernabouttheeurozonedebtsituationinothercountries.
AccordingtodatareleasedbyEurostat,Ireland,Portugal,Spain,Italyandothercountriesofthedeficitandpublicdebtarefarmorethantheprescribed"
theGreekdebtcrisisbegantospreadtotheeurozone.
May10,EU-27financeministersdecided,jointlywiththeInternationalMonetaryFundissuedatotalof750billioneurosrescueplan,IthopedmighthelpeurozonecountriesintoadebtcrisisandpreventtheGreekdebtcrisisfromspreadingfurtherdiffusion.
ThelargestbailoutinEuropeismadeupof3parts,ofwhich440billioneurosareprovidedbytheeurozonecountriesintheformofguarantees,and60billioneuroswillberaisedbytheEuropeanCommissionfromthefinancialmarkets,andtheremaining250billioneuroswillbeprovidedbytheInternationalMonetaryFund.
June14,2010,oneofthethreeinternationalratingagenciesMoody'
sInvestorsServicecutGreece'
ssovereigncreditevenlower4,bytheA3leveldroppedtoBa1,Greecebecametheworld'
sworstnationalcreditrating.
Moody'
ssaidthatalthoughtheeuro-zonecountriesandtheIMFtogethertohelpgetridofthesovereigndebtcrisisinGreece,butGreece'
ssovereigndebtoutlookremainsassured.
AstheEUandIMF€110billionfinancialsupportconditions,theGreekgovernmenthadtopursuetightfiscalpolicies,includingwagecuts,increasetaxes,butafterayearofausterity,theeconomicsituationinGreecehasnotbeensignificantlyimproved,cannotrelyontheirowntosolvethefinancingproblem.
UntilMay2011,Greece'
sdebtcrisiscontinuedtodeteriorate,inthealreadyacquired110billioneurosofloans,Greecestillneeds22billioneurostodealwiththedebtmaturity.
OnFebruary21,2012,theeurozonefinanceministersmeeting,thesecondroundofGreece'
s130billionroundofaidprogramssuccessfullyapproved,thecountry'
sprivatesectorcreditorshaveagreedtoreducetheirholdingsto53.5%,buttheeurozonefinanceministersdemandedthatGreece'
sdebttogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)fellto120.5%by2020.
OnMarch1st,GreeceintheeurozonefinanceministersmeetingwiththeEuropeanfinancialstabilityfund(EFSF)signedanagreementtocompletethedebtrestructuringofGreeceandtomakethecountry'
sbankscancontinuetooperateinthisprocesstolaythefoundation,however,the130billioneurozonefinanceministersintheeuroareafinanceministerstoobtainasmoothcompletionofthedebtexchangewillbeissued.
OnApril25,2012,Greececompletedtheplan.TheGreekgovernmentthroughtheprogramtoreducethedebtofabout100billioneuros,thesuccessoftheprogram,butalsotoensurethatGreecereceivedasecondroundofinternationalaidloans,toavoidabreachofcontract.
OnJune2012,thesupportoftheGreekausterityconservativepartyintheparliamentaryelectionvictoryagainsttheausterityoftheleftparty,theGreekpeoplevoteddecidedintheeurozone.
TheGreekfinanceministrysaidinFebruary4,2013thatGreece'
sfiscaldeficitin2012wasreducedto6.6%ofGDP,andtheoriginaltargetwascompleted.Inastatement,theTreasurysaidthecountry'
sfiscaldeficitin2012fellto12billion900millioneurosfrom19billion700millioneurosin2011,adropof34.6%.In2011,thefiscaldeficitaccountedfor9.4%ofGDP.
3.ThepresentsituationoftheGreekdebtcrisis
AftertheGreekelectionofJanuary2015,theEurogroupgrantedafurtherfour-monthtechnicalextensionofitsbailoutprogrammetoGreece;
acceptingthepaymenttermsattachedtoitslasttranchetoberenegotiatedwiththenewGreekgove