美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲中英文全文标准版Word格式.docx

美国财政部长盖特纳北京大学演讲中英文全文标准版Word格式.docx

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　　TheUnitedStatesandChina,CooperatingforRecoveryandGrowth

　　TheUnitedStatesandChina,CooperatingforRecoveryandGrowthTreasurySecretaryTimothyF.Geithner

　　SpeechatPekingUniversity-Beijing,China

　　ItisapleasuretobebackinChinaandtojoinyouheretodayatthisgreatuniversity.

　　IfirstcametoChina,andtoPekingUniversity,inthesummerof1981asacollegestudentstudyingMandarin.IwasherewithasmallgroupofgraduateandundergraduatestudentsfromacrosstheUnitedStates.IreturnedthenextsummertoBeijingNormalUniversity.

　　Westudiedreasonablyhard,andhadtheprivilegeofworkingwithmanytalentedprofessors,someofwhomareheretoday.AsweexploredthiscityandtraveledthroughEasternChina,wehadthechancenotjusttounderstandmoreaboutyourhistoryandyouraspirations,butalsotobegintoseetheUnitedStatesthroughyoureyes.

　　Overthedecadessince,wehaveseenthebeginningsofoneofthemostextraordinaryeconomictransformationsinhistory.Chinaisthriving.Economicreformhasbroughtexceptionallyrapidandsustainedgrowthinincomes.China¡

¯

semergenceasamajoreconomicforcemorefullyintegratedintotheworldeconomyhasbroughtsubstantialbenefitstotheUnitedStatesandtoeconomiesaroundtheworld.

　　Inrecognitionofourmutualinterestinapositive,cooperative,andcomprehensiverelationship,PresidentHuJintaoandPresidentObamaagreedinApriltoestablishtheStrategicandEconomicDialogue.SecretaryClintonandIwillhostVicePremierWangandStateCouncilorDaiinWashingtonthissummerforourfirstmeeting.IhavetheprivilegeofbeginningtheeconomicdiscussionswithaseriesofmeetingsinBeijingtodayandtomorrow.

　　Thesemeetingswillgiveusachancetodiscusstherisksandchallengesontheeconomicfront,toexaminesomeofthelongertermchallengeswebothfaceinlayingthefoundationforamorebalancedandsustainablerecovery,andtoexploreourcommoninterestininternationalfinancialreform.

　　CurrentChallengesandRisks

　　Theworldeconomyisgoingthroughthemostchallengingeconomicandfinancialstressingenerations.

　　TheInternationalMonetaryFundpredictsthattheworldeconomywillshrinkthisyearforthefirsttimeinmorethansixdecades.ThecollapseofworldtradeislikelytobetheworstsincetheendofWorldWarII.Thelostoutput,comparedtotheworldeconomyspotentialgrowthinanormalyear,couldbebetweenthreeandfourtrilliondollars.

　　Inthefaceofthischallenge,ChinaandtheUnitedStatesareworkingtogethertohelpshapeastrongglobalstrategytocontainthecrisisandtolaythefoundationforrecovery.Andtheseefforts,thecombinedeffectofforcefulpolicyactionshereinChina,intheUnitedStates,andinothermajoreconomies,havehelpedslowthepaceofdeteriorationingrowth,repairthefinancialsystem,andimproveconfidence.

　　Infact,whatdistinguishesthecurrentcrisisisnotjustitsglobalscaleanditsacuteseverity,butthesizeandspeedoftheglobalresponse.

　　AttheG-20LeadersmeetinginLondoninApril,weagreedonanunprecedentedprogramofcoordinatedpolicyactionstosupportgrowth,tostabilizeandrepairthefinancialsystem,torestoretheflowofcreditessentialfortradeandinvestment,tomobilizefinancialresourcesforemergingmarketeconomiesthroughtheinternationalfinancialinstitutions,andtokeepmarketsopenfortradeandinvestment.

　　ThathistoricaccordonastrategyforrecoverywasmadepossibleinpartbythepolicyactionsalreadybeguninChinaandtheUnitedStates.

　　Chinamovedquicklyasthecrisisintensifiedwithaveryforcefulprogramofinvestmentsandfinancialmeasurestostrengthendomesticdemand.

　　IntheUnitedStates,inthefirstweeksofthenewAdministration,weputinplaceacomprehensiveprogramoftaxincentivesandinvestments¨

CthelargestpeacetimerecoveryeffortsinceWorldWarII-tohelparrestthesharpfallinprivatedemand.Alongsidethesefiscalmeasures,weactedtoeasethehousingcrisis.Andwehaveputinplaceaseriesofinitiativestobringmorecapitalintothebankingsystemandtorestartthecreditmarkets.

　　Theseactionshavebeenreinforcedbysimilaractionsincountriesaroundtheworld.

　　Incontrasttotheglobalcrisisofthe1930sandtothemajoreconomiccrisesofthepostwarperiod,theleadersoftheworldactedtogether.Theyactedquickly.Theytookstepstoprovideassistancetothemostvulnerableeconomies,evenastheyfacedexceptionalfinancialneedsathome.Theyworkedtokeeptheirmarketsopen,ratherthanretreatingintoself-defeatingmeasuresofdiscriminationandprotection.

　　Andtheyhavecommittedtomakesurethisprogramofinitiativesissustaineduntilthefoundationforrecoveryisfirmlyestablished,acommitmenttheIMFwillmonitorclosely,andthatwewillbeabletouatetogetherwhentheG-20LeadersmeetagainintheUnitedStatesthisfall.

　　Wearestartingtoseesomeinitialsignsofimprovement.Theglobalrecessionseemstobelosingforce.IntheUnitedStates,thepaceofdeclineineconomicactivityhasslowed.Householdsaresavingmore,butconsumerconfidencehasimproved,andspendingisstartingtorecover.Housepricesarefallingataslowerpaceandtheinventoryofunsoldhomeshascomedownsignificantly.Ordersforgoodsandservicesaresomewhatstronger.Thepaceofdeteriorationinthelabormarkethasslowed,andnewclaimsforunemploymentinsurancehavestartedtocomedownabit.

　　Thefinancialsystemisstartingtoheal.TheclarityanddisclosureprovidedbyourcapitalassessmentofmajorU.S.bankshashelpedimprovemarketconfidenceinthem,makingitpossibleforbanksthatneededcapitaltoraiseitfromprivateinvestorsandtoborrowwithoutguarantees.Thesecuritiesmarkets,includingtheassetbackedsecuritiesmarketsthatessentiallystoppedfunctioninglatelastyear,havestartedtocomeback.Thecostofcredithasfallensubstantiallyforbusinessesandforfamiliesasspreadsandriskpremiahavenarrowed.

　　Theseareimportantsignsofstability,andassurancethatwewillsucceedinavertingfinancialcollapseandglobaldeflation,buttheyrepresentonlythefirststepsinlayingthefoundationforrecovery.Theprocessofrepairandadjustmentisgoingtotaketime.;

　　China,despiteyourownmanifestchallengesasadevelopingcountry,youareinanenviablystrongposition.Butinmosteconomies,therecessionisstillpowerfulanddangerous.BusinessandhouseholdsintheUnitedStates,asinmanycountries,arestillexperiencingthemostchallengingeconomicandfinancialpressuresindecades.

　　Theplantclosures,andcompanyrestructuringsthattherecessioniscausingarepainful,andthisprocessisnotyetover.Thefalloutfromtheseeventshasbeenbrutallyindiscriminant,affectingthosewithlittleornoresponsibilityfortheeventsthatnowbuffetthem,aswellasonsomewhoplayedkeyrolesinbringingaboutourtroubles.

　　Theextentofthedamagetofinancialsystemsentailssignificantriskthatthesupplyofcreditwillbeconstrainedforsometime.Theconstraintsonbanksinmanymajoreconomieswillmakeithardforthemtocompensatefullyforthedamagedonetothebasicmachineryofthesecuritizationmarkets,includingthelossofconfidenceincreditratings.Afteralongperiodwherefinancialinstitutionstookontoomuchrisk,westillfacethepossibilitythatbanksandinvestorsmaytaketoolittlerisk,evenastheunderlyingeconomicconditionsstarttoimprove.

　　And,afteralongperiodoffallingsavingandsubstantialgrowthinhouseholdborrowingrelativetoGDP,consumerspendingintheUnitedStateswillberestrainedforsometimerelativetowhatistypicallythecaseinrecoveries.

　　Thesearenecessaryadjustments.Theywillentailalonger,slowerprocessofrecovery,withaverydifferentpatternoffuturegrowthacrosscountriesthanwehaveseeninthepastseveralrecoveries.

　　LayingtheFoundationforFutureGrowth

　　Asweaddressthisimmediatefinancialandeconomiccrisis,itisimportantthatwealsolaythefoundationsformorebalanced,sustainedgrowthoftheglobaleconomyoncethisrecoveryisfirmlyestablished.

　　Asuccessfultransitiontoamorebalancedandstableglobaleconomywillrequireverysubstantialchangestoeconomicpolicyandfinancialregulationaroundtheworld.ButsomeofthemostimportantofthosechangeswillhavetocomeintheUnitedStatesandChina.HowsuccessfulweareinWashingtonandBeijingwillbecriticallyimportanttotheeconomicfortunesoftherestoftheworld.TheeffectivenessofU.S.policieswilldependinpartonChinas,andtheeffectivenessofyoursonours.

　　AlthoughtheUnitedStatesandChinastartfromverydifferentpositions,manyofourdomesticchallengesaresimilar.IntheUnitedStates,weareworkingtoreformourhealthcaresystem,toimprovethequalityofeducation,torebuildourinfrastructure,andtoimproveenergyefficiency.Thesereformsareessentialtoboostingtheproductivecapacityofoureconomy.Thesechallengesareatthecenterofyourreformpriorities,too.

　　Wearebothworkingtoreformourfinancialsystems.IntheUnitedStates,ourchallengeistocreateamorestableandmoreresilientf