赊店白酒行业分析Word下载.docx

赊店白酒行业分析Word下载.docx

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3.Marketanalysis4

3.1STEPmodel：

4

3.2theFutureeventimpactontheenvironment5

4.Setupamodelfordemandforecasting6

4.1Describethedetailsofthemodelchosen6

4.2Analyzethedatacollectedandmakeprediction7

5.ConclusionandRecommendation9

5.1Conclusion:

9

5.2Recommendation:

Reference10

SheDianLiquorDemandForecast

Withtheimprovementofpeople'

slivingstandard,thedemandforliquorisgraduallyincreased,andcompetitionintheliquormarketwiththeexpansionofthemarkettobecomemoreintense.NanyangCityRealEstateWinesSheDianwinehasauniqueadvantagebyvirtueofthestrongrelationshipbetweenthegovernment,WineofSheDianhasbeeninthehigh-endwinemarketdominance.Inparticular,theorganizationoftheSeventhNationalPeasant,DevelopmentofSheDianwineistheicingonthecake.

SheDianwineryislocatedinNanyangCity,hasmoreadvantagesinthelocalmarket.Onehand,theyfightforthesupportofthelocalgovernmentsector,astrongoccupationofthehigh-endconsumermarket,andspecificallyintheurbanareastheestablishmentofthecreditwineimageofthestore,outlets,tocreateShedianatmosphereofhigh-levelconsumption.

Inaddition,thecreditstorewinesaleseffortsinNanyangCitysuburbancountiesisincreasing.Ontheonehandtoincreasethedealernetworkbuilding,ontheotherhanduseavarietyofactivities,promotions,drivingthemarket,thuscontributingtothemiddleandlowproductmarketalsomaintainedastrongmomentumofdevelopment.

TheSeventhNationalPeasantGame'

sheldforShedianliquoristheicingonthecake.ShedianwinewasdeterminebytheGeneralAssembly,thePreparatoryCommitteedesignatedforthehospitalitywineandliquoronlysupplier,thishigh-endproductsonShedianwinepullisagoodopportunity.

1.2Structureoftheassignment.

ThesisfocusedontheseventhOrganizationofthepeasants'

sportsimpactoncreditstoreliquorinNanyanganddemandforecastmodeltopredictdemandfortheproduct.Concreteisdividedintothefollowingcontent:

First,understandthewineShediandevelopmentandanalysisoftheSTEPmodeliscarriedouttheWineShedianmacroenvironment;

Second,understandtheimpactofthePeasantGamesheldonthedevelopmentofShedianwine;

Third,tounderstandthecommonlyusedmethodsofdemandforecastingmodel,andtheestablishmentoftheappropriateforecastingmodel;

Fourth,tocollectrelevantdata,andtopredict;

2.Reviewofmodelsfordemandforecasting

Wecanusethefollowingthreetheoriestoanalyzethefutureofliquorsales:

Multiplelinear

regressionmodel,Timeseriesmethod.

●Regressionanalysis.Itisundercontrolonthebasisofalargenumberofobserveddata,usingmathematicalandstatisticalmethodforvariable-variablesregressionrelationshipbetweenfunctionexpressionstodescribethequantitychangerelationshipsbetweenvariables.Inregressionanalysis,whenresearchinvolvesonlythedependentvariableandthecausalityofonevariable,calledameta-regressionanalysis;

Inregressionanalysis;

Studythecausalrelationshipinvolvedvariablesandtwoormoreindependentvariablesiscalledmultipleregressionanalysis.

●Timeseriesmethod.Timeserieswasthelasttoarrangedataaccordingtothetimeoftheorder.Timeseriesanalysisistheuseofthesetofsequences,bedealtwithmathematicalstatisticsmethodtopredictfuturedevelopmentofthings.Timeseriesanalysismainlyincludesthemovingaverage,exponentialsmoothing,seasonalcycle.Oftenundertheinfluenceofseveralfactorsoneconomicvariableschange,andchangesinthetimeseriesofeconomicvariablesistheresultofvariousfactors,inGeneral,thechangesinthemaintimeseriesmethodtakingintoaccountthefollowingfactors:

thetrendchanges,seasonalvariation,cyclicvariations,irregularmovements.

2.2Demandforecastingmodel：

Whitewinebookaddictiondrinks,liquorconsumptionofonepersonoftenhaveagreatrelationshipwithhishobby.Orliquorconsumptionofonepersonatatimewithhimintheamountoftimeperiodtheconsumptionofliquor.Therefore,thedemandforliquorforecastcanconsidertheuseoftimeseriesmodels.

Thetimeseriesmethodistheuseoftheseries,theapplicationofmathematicalstatisticalmethodstopredictthefuturedevelopmentofthethings.Timeseriesmethodcanbedividedinto:

thesimplemovingaverageandweightedmovingaverage.

Simplemovingaveragemethod.Simplemovingaverageofthevariouselementsoftheweightsareequal.Thesimplemovingaveragecalculationformulaisasfollows:

Ft=（At-At-2At-3...At-n）/nwhere

•Ft-thenextphaseofthepredictedvalue;

•n-movingaverageperiodnumber;

•At-1-pre-actualvalue;

•At-2,At-3andAt-n,respectively,thefirsttwobeforethreeuntilthefirstnoftheactualvalue.

Weightedmovingaveragemethod.Weightedmovingaveragetothevalueoffixedacrosstheperiodofeachvariabletothedifferentweights.Theprincipleis:

theroleofthehistoryofproductdemanddatatoforecastthenextperioddemandisnotthesame.Inadditiontotheperiodicchangesinn-cycle,awayfromthetargetoftheinfluenceofthevariablevaluesarerelativelylow,itshouldbegivenlowerweights.Weightedmovingaverageiscalculatedasfollows:

Ft=w1At-1w2At-2w3At-3...wnAt-nwhere

•w1-t-1theweightofactualsales;

•w2-t-2theweightofactualsales;

•wn-therightofthefirstt-n-periodsales

•n-theforecastperiodnumber;

w1w2...wn=1

3.Marketanalysis

●politicalenvironment:

First,performanceinthecountry'

spoliticalinfluence.Chinawillstartwithinthenexttenyearslongcalledforpoliticalreform,thecoreofwhichistorestricttherighttopublicabuse,improvingcitizens'

politicalparticipation,buildinglegalGovernment,atalllevelsofGovernmentwithinthelegaltrackExecutive.Promotingpoliticalreformwillbetoprovideanincreasinglystandardizedexternalenvironmentforthedevelopmentofenterprises,enterpriseswillfaceevenmorechallengesforcompetitors.

Second,intermsofpublicconsumption.Shortterm,publicconsumptionremainsthemainliquorconsumption,especiallyinthehigh-endliquorconsumptionisalsotoalargeextentdependonpublicconsumerpull,butthistrendwillfaceincreasinglytoughchallengespublicopinion.

●Economicenvironment.

Firstperformanceintheeffectsofurbanizationonliquor-makingindustry.Willfurtherspeeduptheprocessofurbanization,releasingmorelaborforourcountry'

seconomicdevelopment,andwilleffectivelypromotetheadjustmentofindustrialstructureandupgradingconsumptionstructure,theliquorisbothanopportunityandachallenge.

Second,theeffectsofliquor-makingindustryinCentralandWesternregionseconomicdevelopment.NationaleffortstoincreasefinancialsupporttoCentralandWesternareas,China'

seconomywillbefromthepointtothefullflowering,willgraduallynarrowthegapbetweentheregions,themarketspaceoftheCentralandWesternregionswillbefurtherrelease.

Third,performanceinthegrowinginfluenceofliquor-makingindustryofthemiddleclass.Sustainedandrapiddevelopmentoftheeconomywillbeinthecountrytoformalargenumberofmiddle-class,theywilloccupyanincreasinglyimportantplaceineconomicdevelopment.

●socialenvironment.

First,nearly30yearsoftakingeconomicconstructionastheCenterledtocombiningpowerandcapital.Ordinarypeoplerisechannelslimited,socialpolarizationseriously,Chinafacedduringthedevelopmentofthe"

middle-incometrap"

.

Second,Generationy,generationgrowingupinthenextfewyearswillgraduallytakeshape,andmakenewdemandsonliquorconsumption,couldseizethepartoftheconsumerwillbethekeytothefuturesuccessofliquor.

Finally,wewanttofocusonthoseadvocatingfashionconsumption,consumptionstyles,symbols,consumption,excessiveconsumptionofleisureconsumptionandthemiddleclass,thiseffectisanddecidetoupgradeliquorconsumptionofmainstreamsocialclassorgroup.

●Technologyenvironment.

Shedianwinecompanywithahighlyqualifiedresearchteamandahigh-quality,experiencedteamofblending,withsophisticatedanalyticinstruments,laboratoryequipment,andtheuseofcomputerizedblendingtechnologywithmodernanalytictoolsandthepeople-smell,tastethecombinationofblending,blendingspeedtoaccelerateandimprovethequalityoftheblendingtoachievethepurposeofblendingscience,stablewineSheDianstyle.

3.2theFutureeventimpactontheenvironment

TheseventhNanyangNationalFarmers'

Games（hereinafterreferredtoNanyangPeasant）2012willbeheldinNanyangCity,HenanProvince,fromSeptember16toSeptember22,2012,thissessionofthePeasantwillfocuson"

agriculture"

tosetupagriculturalgamesevents,planningtoopen,theclosingceremonyoftheatricalperformances.Thenfromthecountry'

s31provinces,municipalitiesandautonomousregions,aswellasHongKong,MacaoandTaiwanregions,morethan30,000athletesandpeoplefromallwalksoflifeattendedtheevent.IthasasignificantroleinpromotingthistheNanyangliquorindustry,andtheNanyangregionaleconomicandculturalconstruction.

First,theperformanceroleinpromotingeconomicdevelopment.TheseventhPeasantasthehighestbodyofHenanProvi