英文稿The ThirdPerson Effect in CommunicationWord格式.docx

英文稿The ThirdPerson Effect in CommunicationWord格式.docx

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Insomecases,acommunicationleadstoactionnotbecauseofitsimpactonthosetowhomitisostensiblydirected,butbecauseothers（thirdpersons）thinkthatitwillhaveanimpactonitsaudience.Foursmallexperimentsthattendtosupportthishypothesisarepresented,anditscomplementaryrelationshiptoanumberofconceptsinthesocialsciencesisnoted.Thethird-personeffectmayhelptoexplainvariousaspectsofsocialbehavior,includingthefearofhereticalpropagandabyreligiousleadersandthefearofdissentbypoliticalrulers.Itappearstoberelatedtothephenomenonofcensorshipingeneral:

thecensorneveradmitstobeinginfluenced;

itisotherswith"

moreimpressionableminds"

whowillbeaffected.

W.PhillipsDavisonisProfessorofJournalismandSociologyatColumbiaUniversity.TheauthorwishestothankRobertL.Cohenandtwoanonymousrefereesforreadinganearlierversionofthisarticleandmakinghelpfulcomments.

In1949or1950,whilecombingthroughcartonsofU.S.MarineCorpsdocumentsfromWorldWarII,ayounghistorianatPrincetonUni-versitycameacrossaseriesthatpiquedhiscuriosity.Hesteppedacrossthecorridoranddescribedhisfindtoanevenyoungersociologist:

"

You'

resupposedtoknowsomethingaboutpublicopinion.Whatdoyoumakeofthis?

TherewasaserviceunitconsistingofNegrotroopswithwhiteofficersonIwoJimaIslandinthePacific.TheJapaneselearnedaboutthelocationofthisunitandsentplanesoverwithpropagandaleaflets.Theseleafletsstressedthethemethatthiswasawhiteman'

swarandthattheJapanesehadnoquarrelwithcoloredpeoples.Theysaid,moreorless,'

Don'

triskyourlifeforthewhiteman.Giveyourselfupatthefirstopportunity,orjustdesert.Don'

ttakechances.'

Thenextdaythatunitwaswithdrawn."

Whydoyoufindthissointeresting?

askedthesociologist.

BecauseIcan'

tfindanyevidencethatthepropagandahadaneffectonthetroopsatall.Butitsurehadaneffectonthewhiteofficers.Theleafletsseemtohavecausedasubstantialreshuffleofpersonnel."

Thesociologistmumbledsomethingaboutprobableguiltfeelingsonthepartofthewhiteofficersandatendencyofthemilitarytoprefersolutionsthatinvolvephysicalaction.Buthecouldn'

tescapethefeelingthatsomethingelsewasinvolved.

Afewyearslater,inthecourseofinvestigatingtheroleoftheWestGermanpressintheformationofBonn'

sforeignpolicy,thesociologisthadoccasiontoaskaseriesofjournalistshowmuchinfluencetheythoughtnewspapereditorialshadonthethinkingoftheirreaders（Davison,1957）.Oneoftherepliesgivenfrequentlywasalongthefollowinglines:

Theeditorialshavelittleeffectonpeoplelikeyouandme,buttheordinaryreaderislikelytobeinfluencedquitealot."

Sinceevidencetosupportsuchajudgmentcouldnotbelocated,thislineofinquirywaseventuallyabandoned,buttheresearcherremainedimpressedwiththeextenttowhichmanyjournalistswereconvincedthateditorialshadaneffectonotherpeople'

sattitudes,whilediscountingtheeffectonpeoplelikethemselves.

Sometimeafterthat,thesociologistbecameinvolvedinthelocalphaseofanationalelection,servingasavolunteerforhispreferredcandidate'

sorganization.Twodaysbeforetheelectionaleafletsupportingtherivalcandidateappearedinhismailbox.Hewasimpressedwithitsquality.Itwouldundoubtedlyswingalotofvotes.Somecounteractionwouldhavetobetaken.Withoutthinkingfurther,heprocuredapileofpoliticalliteraturefromhisownparty'

slocalofficeandspenttherestofthedaydistributingitdoortodoor.

Informalpostelectionanalyses（nosystematicstudieswereconductedatthelocallevel）suggestedthatneithersetofpropagandamaterialshadexertedmuchinfluenceonthevoters.ItwasasthoughapagehadbeentakenoutofThePeople'

sChoice.Thesociologist（whoisidenticalwiththewriterofthisarticle）begantoaskhimselfwhyhehadassumedthattherivalcandidate'

sleafletwouldbesoeffective.

Thesepersonalexperiences,andprobablyothersthathavebeenforgotten,ledtotheformationofapropositionthat,forwantofabetterlabel,maybecalledthe"

third-personeffecthypothesis."

Initsbroadestformulation,thishypothesispredictsthatpeoplewilltendtooverestimatetheinfluencethatmasscommunicationshaveontheattitudesandbehaviorofothers.Morespecifically,individualswhoaremembersofanaudiencethatisexposedtoapersuasivecommunication（whetherornotthiscommunicationisintendedtobepersuasive）willexpectthecommunicationtohaveagreatereffectonothersthanonthemselves.Andwhetherornottheseindividualsareamongtheostensibleaudienceforthemessage,theimpactthattheyexpectthiscommunicationtohaveonothersmayleadthemtotakesomeaction.Anyeffectthatthecommunicationachievesmaythusbeduenottothereactionoftheostensibleaudiencebutrathertothebehaviorofthosewhoanticipate,orthinktheyperceive,somereactiononthepartofothers.

Thephenomenonunderconsiderationhasbeencalledthe"

third-personeffect"

becausethirdpersonsareinvolvedfromtwodifferentobservationalstandpoints.Intheviewofthosetryingtoevaluatetheeffectsofacommunication,itsgreatestimpactwillnotbeon"

me"

or"

you,"

buton"

them"

—thethirdpersons.Fromthestandpointofapropagandistorotherpersuasivecommunicator,ontheotherhand,thethirdpersonsarethosewhoareinsomewayconcernedwiththeattitudesandbehavioroftheostensibleaudience.Indeed,thepropagandistmaytrytomanipulatethebehaviorofthesethirdpersonsbyapparentlyseekingtoinfluencesomeoneelse.

Thisseconddefinitionofthe"

thirdperson"

mayhavebeeninthemindsoftheJapanesestrategistswhoarrangedtohaveleafletsdroppedovertheblackserviceunitsonIwoJima.Theymaynothaveexpectedtheleafletstohaveaneffectonthetroopsthemselves,butwereinsteadtryingtogoadthewhitemilitarycommandintotakingtheactionthatitapparentlydidtakeinfact—namely,towithdrawtheserviceunits.

ImputationofsuchreasoningtoJapanesemilitarypropagandistsissupportedbythefactthatBritishandAmericanpsychologicalwarfareinEuropemadeuseofaverysimilartactic.TheHistoryofthePsychologicalWarfareDivision,SupremeHeadquarters,AlliedExpeditionaryForce（BadHomburg,Germany,1945）,tellsusaboutOperationHuguenot—aprojectforunderminingtheefficiencyoftheGermanAirForcebysuggestingthatGermanflyingpersonnelweredesertingintheirmachinestotheAlliedside.Plantingsuchsuggestionswasnotdifficult.

ItwasknownthatAlliedradiobroadcastsweresystematicallymonitoredbytheGermangovernmentandthatmonitoringreportsweredistributedtoallhighpoliticalandmilitaryofficials.HintsaboutdesertionsfromtheLuftwaffecouldinclude,forexample,a"

slip"

byanannouncerindicatingthataplaneofficiallyreportedasbeingshotdownhadinfactlandedsafelyinEngland.ItcouldbeassumedthatatleastsomeofthesehintswouldbepickedupbyalertradiomonitorsinBerlin.ThePsychologicalWarfareDivisionhistorytellsus:

ThedividendsfromthisoperationwereexpectednotsomuchintheactualnumberofdesertionsasintheeffectofthecountermeasureswhichtheGermanauthoritieswouldbeinducedtotakeagainstflyingpersonnel...sharpeningupofanti-desertionmeasuresandinstructionstofieldpolicetokeepasuspiciouseyeoneveryone—acoursewhichwouldhaveseriouseffectsonmorale.Also,thepromotionofofficersonaccountofreliabilityratherthanefficiency（p.53）.

Itseemsprobablethatpracticalpersuadersthroughoutthecenturieshavebeenawareofthisuseofthethird-personeffect.Lovers,certainly,havefrequentlytriedtoinfluencethebehaviorofthelovedonebyseemingtodirecttheirattentionstosomeoneelse.

FourSmallExperiments

Duringthepastseveralyears,thewriterhasmadeaseriesofminoreffortstotestonevariantofthethird-personeffecthypothesis:

thatanindividualwhoisexposedtoapersuasivecommunicationviathemassmediawillseethiscommunicationashavingagreatereffectonotherpeoplethanonhimselforherself.Allthesetesthavebeenconductedwithsmallgroupsunderinformalconditions.Elegantexperimentstheywerenot.Nevertheless,carewastakentoinsurethatthegroupsdidnotcontaminateeachotherandthattheirmembersdidnotsuspectthataparticularhypothesiswasbeingtested.Eventhoughnosingleexperimentcanberegardedasparticularlyimpressiveinitself,theresultsalltendtoconfirmthehypothesis.Takentogether,theyarereasonablyconvincing,atleasttothiswriter.

Thefirsttrialwasconductedwiththehelpofagood-naturedgroupof33graduatestudentstakingacourseonmasscommunicationatColumbiaUniversityin1978.ItwasjustaftertheNewYorkStateelectionoftheyearandalsojustafterastrikethathadshutdownthethreemajorNewYorkCitynewspapers.Aquestionnaireincludeditemsaboutboththeelectionandthestrike,andwasdivideintotwosection,oneincluding”questionsaboutNewYorkersingeneral,”andtheother“afewquestionsaboutyourownexperiences.”Oneoftheitemsinthefirstsectionreadasfollows:

Asyouprobablyknow,GovernorCareyrepeatedlycalledonMr.Duryea[theRepublicanchallenger]tomakehi