And the walls came downWord文档下载推荐.docx

And the walls came downWord文档下载推荐.docx

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Lastweek,IhadthepleasureofdeliveringaspeechtotheInstitutefortheAdvancementoftheAmericanLegalSystem（IAALS）,aninnovativeprogramheadquarteredattheUniversityofDenverthataddressesreformstolegaleducation,accesstojustice,andjudicialselection.Theyhadaskedmeforapresentationthatwouldexplainthechallengesfacingthelegalprofessiontodayandoutlinethecontoursofthelegalmarketoftomorrow.

Ithoughtyoumightliketoreadacondensedversionofmyremarks,whichtoucheduponmanyissuesthatI’vecanvassedhereatLaw21overthepastfewyears.Consideringthatthisisalsomy400thposthere,itseemedappropriatetosharewhatamountstoasummaryofmyviewsonthelegalprofession,thelegalmarket,andthelegalsystem.

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Wefaceenormouschangeinthelegalmarketplace:

primarily,theemergenceofnewcompetitiveanddisruptiveforcesthataremountingincreasinglyformidablechallengestoourtraditionalassumptionsandunderstandingsaboutlegalwork.Atthesametime,wearegrapplingwithalegalandjusticesystemthatisnotgivinganyonemuchsatisfaction,andisinfactgivingmanypeopleagreatdealofheartache.Therearenumerousdisconnectsamonghowthingsusedtobeinthelaw,whatthey’reliketoday,andwhatwewishtheywouldbe.

Sowhatcanwedo?

Perhapsnotsurprisingly,Isayweadapt.Weneedtoseethelegalworldasitisandasitsurelywillbecome,andthenweimaginewhatitmightbeanddoeverythingwecantomakethatvisionreal.Ourmemories,ournarratives,ourassumptionsandexpectationsaboutthelaw—bothindividualandcollective—thesearethewallswe’vebuiltaroundthelegalmarketandaroundourselves,andtheyarelimitingourvision.It’stimetolowerthewallsandletilluminationcomein.

Let’sbeginbyseeingthelegalworldasitis.Whatareweupagainst?

Whatarewedealingwith?

Herearefivepointstogetusstarted.

1Growthinlawyers’businesshasstalled.Withafewexceptions,lawfirmsofallsizeshaveseenbusinessslowdown,revenuesflatlineordecrease,andnewbusinessbecomeincreasinglydifficulttofind.

2Lawyers’pricingisundertremendouspressurefromclients.Imean“pricing”inbothadollaramountsense—ratediscountsaremultiplying—andasamethodology—flatfeesareproliferating.

3Low-costalternativestolawyersarepickingupbusiness.Largefirmshaveseentheriseoflawdepartmentinsourcingandlegalbusinessoutsourcing.SmallerfirmshaveseenLegalZoom,RocketLawyerandtheliketargettheirmarkets.

4Ahugeglutofunemployednewlawyersisbuildingup.EmploymentratesfornewlawyersintheUnitedStateshavefallensharplyinthewakeofthefinancialcrisis.Atlargelawfirms,they’vefallenoffacliff—down40%inthelastfiveyears.

5Andfinally,althoughyoumaynothavefeltit,anearthquakestruckthelegalprofessionearlierthisyear.ItsepicenterwasLondon:

itwastheissuanceofthefirstlicensestooperatewhat’scalledAlternativeBusinessStructures,lawfirmsownedbynon-lawyers.

These,atleast,arenotpredictionsorsuppositions.Thisisreallyhappening,rightnow.Andit’shappeningbecauseofaseriesofchangestothelegalmarketplace,bothhereintheUSandworldwide.Onceagain,I’llgiveyoufivetoconsider.

6Alengthyperiodofstrongeconomicgrowthpoweredbyheavyborrowing,interspersedwithoccasionalhyper-growthbubblesandbusts,hascometoanend.Wearenotina“recession,”intheusualsenseoftheword.Weareinalengthyperiodofslowdeleveragingandweak,fitfulgrowth.Itshouldlastatleastanotherfiveyears,andmaybelonger,giveortakeafiscalcliff,aEurocollapse,orahardlandingforChina’shousingboom.

7Clientshaveacquiredapotentcombinationofknowledge,powerandurgency.Basiclegalinformationismorewidelyavailabletodaythaneverbefore.Basiclegaltoolsareeasilyaccessibleatlowcostornocostacrosstheinternet.Andclientscannotandwillnotspendadollarmorethantheyabsolutelymustonanything,andmostespeciallyonlawyers.

8Newprovidersandnewtechnologyarestartingtoenterthemarket.ImentionedcompanieslikeLegalZoomandlegalprocessoutsourcersamomentago,companiesintheirinfancythathavealreadygeneratedasurprisingamountofbusiness.Butthere’salsonew,disruptivetechnologythatcanreplicatebasiclawyerfunctionsand,insomecases,morecomplexlawyerfunctions.

9Generationalchangecontinues.Wetendtoforgetaboutthis—partly,Ithink,becauseeveryonewastalkingabouttheriseofthemillennialsandtheretirementoftheboomers,rightupuntilthefinancialcrisis.Andthensuddenly,wedidn’thearmuchaboutwork-lifebalanceanymore.Butgenerationalturnovercontinues,anditaffectslegalorganizationsofeverykind.Andlet’snotforget:

italsoaffectsclients.Theculturalvaluesofbothlegalbuyersandlegalsellersareslowlytransforming.

10Finally,theregulatoryenvironmentforlegalservicesischanging.Lawyerself-regulationisgoneinAustraliaandit’sgoneinEnglandandWales.InmyhomeprovinceofOntario,paralegalsaremembersinfullstandingoftheLawSocietyofUpperCanada,lawyers’governingbody.TheUnitedStateswillholdoutagainstthistrendlongerthananyoneelse—exceptpossiblyIndia—butitsarrivalhereisstillonlyamatteroftime.Lawyerswillbesharingthemarketwithnon-lawyers,andIcannotoverstatehowimportantthatwillprovetobe.

Sowherewillthisleadus?

Whatdoesthe“futureofthelegalprofession”looklike?

HerearesomeofthekeyfeaturesIthinkwecanexpectinthelegalmarketplaceofthefuture.

1.Systemsandtechnologywillmakesubstantialinroadsintothelegalmarket.

Today,ifsomeoneasksme,“Canmachinesreplacelawyers?

”I’minclinedtosay,“Well,onlyifthelawyerinquestionisn’tverygood.”Now,that’salittleharsh,andit’snotentirelyfair—toeitherthelawyerorthemachine.Ifyouweretoaskmeinstead,“Canamachinereplaceaspectsofwhatlawyerscurrentlydo?

”—well,that’sadifferentquestion,andtheanswerinmanycasesisyes.

Automatedcontractcreation,data-crunchinganalysissystems,expertapplicationsthatanswerregulatoryandcompliancequestions,onlinedisputesystemspoweredbygametheory—alltheseprogramsareavailablerightnow.Theyaresolidlybuilt,theyareattractinginvestorinterest,andtheyareonlygoingtogetbetterastheygrow.Theydotheirjobsinminutes,notinbillablehours,andtheyaremorereliableandsophisticatedthanmanylawyerswouldbepreparedtocredit.

We’reatleast10yearsaway,probablymore,frommachinesthatcancompletelyreplacelawyers.Butwe’realreadyintheerawhenmachinescandisplacelawyers—takeonsomeaspectsoftheirwork,somepercentageoftheirtasks,bumpthemaside,jostleintotheirseats,forcethemtogodosomethingelse.Andthatpercentageisgoingtogrow.Ican’ttellyouatwhatrate,orhowquickly.Itwillbedifferentfordifferentmarketsanddifferenttypesofwork.

Butthefactisthatagreatdealofwhatmostlawyersdoisnotthatcomplicated.Atleastsomeofitcanbedonebynon-lawyers—andinsomefirms,italreadyis,bysecretaries,paralegalsandclerks;

infuture,itwillbedonebymachines,processesandsystems.Butinmanylawfirmstoday,it’sbeingdonebylawyers.It’swhatmanyofthehoursbilledinthelegalprofessiontodayconsistof—andthatisnotsustainable.That’sahardtruth.Butweneedtohearitsaid.

2.Non-lawyerswillhaveproliferatedthroughoutthemarket.

Idislikethattermintensely,bytheway:

“non-lawyers.”WearetheonlyprofessionIknowthatdividestheworldinto“us”and“notus.”Weusethattermallthetime,andwerarelyappreciatehowinsultingitistothepeoplethusdescribed.

Butnon-lawyersarecoming.Wearegoingtosharethismarketwiththem.Thesoonerweacceptthatandstartworkingtoaccommodateitsimpact,thebetter.They’recomingbecausetheyareprovingtheirabilitiesandreliabilityeveryday.They’recomingbecauselawyershaveclaimedtoomuchterritoryundertheall-powerfuldescription“thepracticeoflaw,”toomanyactivitiesthatdonotrequirealawyer’srareandvaluableskillandjudgment.

Andtheyarecomingbecausewehavedonealousyjobofservingtheentirelegalmarket.Clients,bothindividualandcorporate,arespendingmoreandmoreandwaitinglongerandlongerforoutcomesthatleavethemlessandlesssatisfied.Andthat’sjustthepeoplewhocanaffordlawyersandthelegalsysteminthefirstplace.Manypeoplearenoteveninthegameatall.

Andthatisonus.Theseproblemsdevelopedonourwatch,underouradministrationandstewardshipofthelegalsystem.Theyareourresponsibility.Wehavehadampleopportunitytorectifythem,andaseveryonehereknows,wehavenotmovedfastenoughorfarenough.Sogovernmentsandcitizensaregoingtostartsaying,“Timetoletsomeoneelsetry.”Timetostartputtingthe“UnauthorizedPracticeofLaw”inthehistorybooks.Lookatwhat’shappeninginEnglandandWales,andrecognizethateventually,inevitably,itwillhappenhere.

3.Thelegalprofessionwillbesmaller,butalsomorespecializedandsuccessful,thanitistoday.

Idon’treallyseeawayaroundasmallerbar.Gradually,yearbyyear,innovationswillcontinuetodisruptthelegalprofession.Thecapabilitiesofprovidersoutsideourprofessionwillexpand,fromlawyersinIndiatopara-professionalsinNorthAmericatosoftwarepackagesinthecloud.Lawyerssimplywillnotbenecessaryto