房地产企业融资专题分析报告Word文档格式.docx
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7.样本房企现金流压力测试:
压力主要来自于再投资,只要停止拿地,压力并不大.....20
7.1.如果房企完全停止拿地,在销售回款较2017年分别下降20%,持平,上升10%的
三种情况下,是否有足够的钱偿还债务。
...................................................................................21
7.2.如果房企想维持17年的拿地规模,在销售回款较2017年分别下降20%,持平,
上升10%的三种情况下,偿债现金缺口有多大?
......................................................................23
8.现金流关键疑难指标解析.........................................................................................................25
8.1.预收款与现金流及营业收入的关系.......................................................................................25
8.2.偿债现金流为何多数情况下大于短期债务?
.....................................................................27
8.3.回款率为何逐年下降?
...............................................................................................................27
8.4.拿地支出分布在哪些科目里?
.................................................................................................28
8.4.1.购买商品接受劳务支付的现金.....................................................................................28
8.4.2.投资支付的现金、取得子公司及其他营业单位支付的现金净额....................29
8.4.3.支付其他与经营活动有关的现金、支付其他与投资活动有关的现金...........29
8.5.“其他”里面都藏着些什么?
..................................................................................................29
8.5.1.收到其他与经营活动有关的现金................................................................................29
8.5.2.支付其他与经营活动有关的现金................................................................................30
8.5.3.收到其他与投资活动有关的现金................................................................................30
8.5.4.支付其他与投资活动有关的现金................................................................................30
8.5.5.收到其他与筹资活动有关的现金................................................................................30
8.5.6.支付其他与筹资活动有关的现金................................................................................31
8.5.7.总结:
房企自主选择空间较大,具体情况具体分析...........................................31
8.6.支出积极性指标.............................................................................................................................31
9.结论:
中小型房企偿债能力不必过度担忧,负债率和现金流压力测试都很安全.........32
9.1.小型房企主动去杠杆,偿债能力不必过度担忧................................................................32
9.2.中小房企筹资活动现金流入占比较低,但投资现金流入、流出占比均较高,可能
是由于“明股实债”或者合作开发较多.......................................................................................32
9.3.房企现金流压力主要来自于再投资,只要停止拿地,房企的现金流压力并不大33
9.4.现金流关键疑难指标解析..........................................................................................................33
9.4.1.预收款与现金流及营业收入的关系............................................................................33
9.4.2.偿债现金流为何多数情况下大于短期债务?
.........................................................34
9.4.3.回款率为何逐年下降?
...................................................................................................34
9.4.4.拿地支出分布在哪些科目里?
.....................................................................................34
10.案例分析:
万科........................................................................................................................34
10.1.货币资金处于历史高位,偿债能力远超行业整体.........................................................35
10.2.17年现金净流入创历史新高,18Q1则出现大幅净流出36
10.3.钱从哪里来,花到哪里去........................................................................................................38
10.4.经营现金流:
“其他”流出大幅增加,回款率不断下降...........................................39
10.5.投资现金流:
净流出规模扩张迅速.....................................................................................40
10.6.筹资现金流:
一季度集中偿还债务.....................................................................................40
10.7.2017年万科拿地施工支出较为谨慎....................................................................................41
附录:
直接法和间接法现金流量表、样本名单.........................................................................44
图表目录
图1:
44家样本房企历年货币资金...........................................................................................................7
图2:
分组房企历年货币资金增速............................................................................................................7
图3:
44家样本房企历年短期债务...........................................................................................................8
图4:
分组房企货币资金对短期债务的覆盖倍数................................................................................8
图5:
分组房企净负债率.............................................................................................................................10
图6:
44家样本房企历年现金流入.........................................................................................................10
图7:
44家样本房企历年现金流出.........................................................................................................10
图8:
44家样本房企历年现金净流入....................................................................................................10
图9:
龙头房企历年现金净流入...............................................................................................................11
图10:
大型房企历年现金净流入............................................................................................................11
图11:
中型房企历年现金净流入............................................................................................................11
图12:
小型房企历年现金净流入............................................................................................................11
图13:
历年现金流入的构成......................................................................................................................11
图14:
龙头房企历年现金流入构成........................................................................................................12
图15:
大型房企历年现金流入构成........................................................................................................12
图16:
中型房企历年现金流入构成........................................................................................................12
图17:
小型房企历年现金流入构成........................................................................................................12
图18:
历年现金流出的构成......................................................................................................................12
图19:
龙头房企历年现金流出构成........................................................................................................13
图20:
大型房企历年现金流出构成........................................................................................................13
图21:
中型房企历年现金流出构成........................................................................................................13
图22:
小型房企历年现金流出构成........................................................................................................13
图23:
样本房企历年现金流入细项........................................................................................................13
图24:
样本房企历年现金流出细项........................................................................................................13
图25:
分组房企17年现金流入细项.....................................................................................................14
图26:
分组房企17年现金流出细项.....................................................................................................14
图27:
分组房企18年Q1现金流入细项14
图28:
分组房企18年Q1现金流出细项14
图29:
44家样本历年经营现金流...........................................................................................................15
图30:
龙头房企历年经营活动现金流...................................................................................................15
图31:
大型房企历年经营活动现金流...................................................................................................15
图32:
中型房企历年经营活动现金流...................................................................................................15
图33:
小型房企历年经营活动现金流...................................................................................................15
图34:
历年经营活动现金流入细项拆分..............................................................................................16
图35:
历年经营活动现金流出细项拆分..............................................................................................16
图36:
历年投资现金流...............................................................................................................................16
图37:
龙头房企历年投资活动现金流...................................................................................................16
图38:
大型房企历年投资活动现金流...................................................................................................16
图39:
中型房企历年投资活动现金流...................................................................................................17
图40:
小型房企历年投资活动现金流...................................................................................................17
图41:
历年投资活动现金流入细项拆分..............................................................................................17
图42:
历年投资活动现金流出细项拆分..............................................................................................17
图43:
17年投资活动现金流入细项拆分(分组)...........................................................................17
图44:
17年投资活动现金流出细项拆分(分组)...........................................................................17
图45:
18年Q1投资活动现金流入细项拆分(分组)18
图46:
18年Q1投资活动现金流出细项拆分(分组)18
图47:
历年筹资活动现金流............................................................................................................