德勤2005年给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案.ppt

德勤2005年给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案.ppt

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U.S.Energy&TheRoleofU.S.Energy&TheRoleofRockyMountainNaturalGas:

RockyMountainNaturalGas:

CleanDomesticEnergyForaGrowingAmerica（2005）CleanDomesticEnergyForaGrowingAmerica（2005）Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergyBasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsThereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergyBasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsOverthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%Thereisnoeconomy,beitnew,oldorevenfuturistic,thatwouldexistwithoutreliable,accessibleandaffordableenergyBasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsWeimport14%ofthegasand53%oftheoilweuseOverthepast25yearsU.S.demandforenergyhasincreasedby35%whileoursupplyhasonlyincreasedby17%PollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:

Source:

COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFacts1.TakesenergyforgrantedPollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:

Source:

COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFacts1.Takesenergyforgranted2.NeitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernationsPollsdemonstratethattheAmericanpublic:

Source:

COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFacts1.Takesenergyforgranted2.Neitherunderstandsnorappreciateshowcheapourenergyisinconstantdollarsorincomparisontootherconsumernations3.SeemstobelievethemistakennotionthatenergyproductionnecessarilyentailsunacceptableenvironmentalimpactInColoradoabout2,000drillingpermitsareissuedannuallycomparedtoabout50,000housingpermitsSource:

COGAFlowline,Vol.17,#3BasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsOILOILTotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyTotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001PrimaryEnergySource2001Source:

EIAPetroleum39.4%NaturalGas22.8%Coal23.1%Other-3.9%Hydro-2.5%Nuclear-8.4%WorldPetroleumDemandWorldPetroleumDemand25.9%76.0MMbodSource:

EIAInthelast5yearstheworldconsumed27billionbarrels/year,buttheindustrydiscoveredonly3billionbarrels/yearTherefore:

used135billionbarrelsofoilwhilediscovering15billionbarrelsofoilSource:

USGSBasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsWorldTopOilProducingCountriesin2001WorldTopOilProducingCountriesin20011.U.S.9.0MMbo/d2.Russia8.8MMbo/d3.SaudiArabia8.0MMbo/d4.NorthSea（UK,Norway,Denmark）6.3MMbo/d5.Iran3.7MMbo/d6.Mexico3.6MMbo/d7.China3.3MMbo/d8.Venezuela2.9MMbo/d9.Canada2.8MMbo/d10.Iraq2.4MMbo/dSource:

EIAU.S.PetroleumProductsProductionvs.U.S.PetroleumProductsProductionvs.U.S.PetroleumDemandU.S.PetroleumDemandProduction-25%Demand+24%Source:

EIAU.S.CrudeOilProductionU.S.CrudeOilProduction&CrudeOilImports&CrudeOilImportsSource:

EIA051015202519731976197919821985198819911994199720002001QuadrillionBtuOilProductionOilImportsTopSuppliersofCrudeOiltoU.S.in2001TopSuppliersofCrudeOiltoU.S.in20011.SaudiArabia1,611Mbo/d2.Mexico1,394Mbo/d3.Canada1,356Mbo/d4.Venezuela1,291Mbo/d5.Nigeria842Mbo/d6.Iraq795Mbo/dSource:

EIANATURALGASNATURALGASTotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyTotalU.S.EnergyConsumptionbyPrimaryEnergySource2001PrimaryEnergySource2001Source:

EIAPetroleum39.4%NaturalGas22.8%Coal23.1%Other-3.9%Hydro-2.5%Nuclear-8.4%U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionin2001U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionin200122.0Tcf22.0TcfSource:

Groppe,Long&LittellResidential22%Commercial15%Industrial26%ElectricUtilities26%ChemicalsandMaterials3%Other9%U.S.NaturalGasConsumptionvs.DryProductionU.S.NaturalGasConsumptionvs.DryProductionSource:

EIA01020304050607019731977198119851989199319972001BcfdConsumptionProductionU.S.ShortfallinProductionvs.ConsumptionU.S.ShortfallinProductionvs.ConsumptionSource:

EIAIn2001U.S.consumptionwas6BcfdgreaterthanU.S.production!

ProjectedNaturalGasDemandProjectedNaturalGasDemandSource:

EIATcfperyearU.S.manufacturingisbasedonaffordableandreliablesuppliesofnaturalgas.Attheseprices,itisunlikelytheU.S.willattractnewmanufacturingcapital.Todaysgaspricesareforcingmanufacturerstoconsiderproductionoverseas.Source:

IndustrialEnergyConsumersofAmericaELECTRICITYELECTRICITYU.S.highwayfuelmarkettotals11-12MMbopdmakingitthesinglelargestpetroleummarketintheworldHowevertheenergycontentcreatingKilowattsintheU.S.isalmosttwiceaslargeasthehighwayfuelmarket!

ElectricityBasicEnergyFactsElectricityBasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsBasicEnergyFactsIn2001nearly42%oftheenergyconsumedintheU.S.wasusedtogenerateelectricity.Source:

Groppe,Long&LittellU.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001U.S.ElectricitySupplybySourcein2001Source:

EIANaturalGas16.5%Coal51.5%OtherGaseousFuels-0.5%Geothermal,Solar,Wind-2.1%Petroleum-3.4%Hydro-5.8%Nuclear20.3%FromendofWWIItostar