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India-BangladeshWaterDispute
ICECaseNumber78
∙CASEBACKGROUND
∙ENVIRONMENTASPECT
∙CONFLICTASPECT
∙ENVIRONMENTCONFLICTOVERLAP
∙RELATEDINFORMATION
I.CASEBACKGROUND
1.Abstract
TheSouthAsiansub-continentishometoover1.3billionpeople,withclosetoonebillioninthecountryofIndiaalone.TheinclusionofneighboringPakistan,Nepal,andBangladeshaddanotherquarterbillion.Thepresenceofthisenormouspopulationhasexertedextremepressuresupontheenvironmentandwillcontinuetodosowiththecurrentandprojectedhighpopulationgrowthrates.Theencroachmentuponforestsandother(previously)sparselypopulatedareashasledtoincreaseddesertification,analarmingdecreaseinthewildlifepopulation,andsoilerosionthathasirreparablydamagedecosystems.Coupledwiththewidespreadpollutionofdevelopingindustriesandmushroomingpopulationdensitiesinurbancenters,environmentalissueshavebecomeofcriticalimportance.
2.Description
OneoftheperenniallyimportantenvironmentalissuesisthescarcityandsharingoffreshwaterresourcesbetweenIndiaandtwoofitsneighbors,BangladeshandPakistan.LargeriverssuchastheIndus,Ganges,andtheBrahmaputraarebornintheloftyheightsoftheHimalayasandareharnessedforhydroelectricpower(currentlyatlevelsfarbelowtheirmaximumpotential)beforeflowingtothevastplainsoftheDeccanandontoeithertheArabianSeatothewestortheBayofBengaltotheeast.Theproblemofwaterresourceallocationandsharing,primarilyforirrigationpurposes,hasplaguedrelationsbetweenIndiaanditsneighbors,andhasledtoatruecaseexampleofnvironmentalsecurity?
-whereenvironmentalissuesareentwinedwithnationalsecurityissues(e.g.environmentalscarcityleadstotensionsbetweennationssharingcommonresources).
Thepurposeofthispaperistoexaminehowremotelysenseddataandrelatedanalyticaltoolscanmakeauniqueandimmediatelyusefulcontributiontothesolutionoftheseenvironmentalproblems,andhowthisdatacanbemoreapplicableandhaveadirectimpactonenvironmentalpolicymaking.Firstly,itisimportanttounderstandthebackgroundandhistoricalcontextofthesewaterconflictproblems,andtocriticallyexaminethecausesoftheenvironmentalproblemsandtheresultingenvironmentalsecurityissuestheyhavecreated.Oncetheseissueshavebeenidentifiedandtheexistinglevelofknowledgeregardingthemisdetermined,aresearchstrategytostudytheseissuesfurtherwillbeformulatedtoshedgreaterlightonaspectsthatmaynotbeclearatthispointintime.Thisstrategywillspecificallyaddresshowremotelysenseddata,amongotherdatasources,canbeusedtostudyandaddresstheproblems.Lastly,astrategytoeffectivelyapplyandusethesedataforpolicymakingdecisions,andspecificrecommendedactionswillbeproposed.Theworkinghypothesisofthispaperisthattheuseofremotesensingdatamaybeabletocontributeinsomemannertothediffusionofenvironmentallybasedconflicts.
Background
Inthissection,thebackgroundforthetwoprincipalinternationalwaterdisputesinSouthAsiaispresented.Waterconflictinthisregionpresentsaninterestingcasestudyintermsofthevariednatureoftheconflictsthatarelargelyduetothedynamicsofthepowerbalancesbetweentheactors.InthecaseofIndiaandPakistan,thepotentialforrealmilitaryconflictexists,andtheissueofnuclearcapabilitieslendsachillingnewdimensiontoarmedengagement.However,aswillbeseen,theIndo-PakistanidisputeoverthesharingoftheIndusriversystemhasnotbeenascontentiousastheIndo-Bangladeshidispute.Indeed,since1960whentheIndusWatersTreatywassignedbyIndiaandPakistan,themainissueshavebeenresolved-primarilyduetointernationalintervention.
However,theGangesriverdisputebetweenIndiaandBangladeshhascontinuedtofester,anddespitearecenttreatysignedin1996,thereisstillmuchprogressthatremainstobeaccomplished.Inthisconflict,oneparty(India)completelydominatestheother(inamilitarysense),anditisonlythroughotherchannels,suchasthepressuresofillegalimmigrationcausedbyenvironmentaldisaster,thattheconflicthastrulymanifesteditself.DuetothelackofacomprehensivesolutionthattreatstheGangesbasinasasystemindependentofartificialnationalboundaries,aswellasthecomplexityofthesecondaryrepercussions,waterallocationissuesassociatedwiththeGangesriversystemwillbetheprimaryfocusofthispaper.
Tocontrastthetwoconflicts,itisinterestingtocomparetheminanotional"
conflictspace"
asdepictedinFigure1.Thetwodimensionsofthisspacearethepotentialseverityoftheconflictandtheleveloftheenvironmentalimpact.Aswillbeseen,theGangesRiverdisputehashadahigherenvironmentalimpactthantheIndusRiverdispute,butthepotentialseverityoftheconflictisnotaspotentiallyintenseasfortheIndusRiverdisputewherebothpartieshavenuclearcapabilities.
Figure1.RelativePositionsofSouthAsianWaterConflictsinaNotionalConflictSpace
TheIndusRiverDispute(Indiavs.Pakistan)TheIndusRiverisborninthehighlandsofTibet,andflowstotheArabianSeaoverthecourseofsome2,900kmthroughIndiaandPakistan.Withabasincoverageareaofover900,000km2,theIndushasaflowvolumetwicethatoftheNile,andthreetimesthatoftheTigris-Euphratesriversystem.[1]
Asfarbackasfourmillenniumago,theIndusbasinwasoneofthecradlesofcivilization,spawningtheancientcitiesofHarappaandMohenjo-daro.Agriculturewasamainformoflivelihood,andtheIndusRiverwasafertileregion.Only200yearsago,duringtheiroccupationoftheIndiansub-continent,theBritishactivelyencouragedagricultureinthisregionknownasthePunjab(whichmeans﨤andofFiveRivers?
thattodaystraddlesaportionoftheborderbetweenpresentdayIndiaandPakistan.TheBritishmotivationwastofindanoccupationforthemanyidleSikhswhohadputupstiffresistancetotheBritishinvasion.Consequently,BritishengineersbegananextensivesetofprojectstodivertthemaintributariesoftheIndusintoawebofirrigatingcanals,andthePunjabbecameafertile"
breadbasket"
.
In1947,theBritishpartitionedtheregionbetweenIndiaandPakistan,andanagreementwassignedbetweenthetwonewlyformedcountriestomaintainwatersuppliesatthelevelofpre-independencetimes.However,disputesoverwaterallocationsoonarose,andin1948,IndiacutoffthewaterincanalsflowingtoPakistan.Negotiationsensued,butthemagnitudeofthecontroversythataffectedtheagricultureofsuchalargeregioninfluencedtheU.S.magazine,Collier'
s,tosponsorDavidLilienthal,ChairmanoftheTennesseeValleyAuthority,toundertakeafact-findingtourandproposesomesolutions.Lilienthal'
sworkwasbroughttotheattentionofthepresidentoftheWorldBankatthattime,EugeneBlack,whoattemptedtopersuadethetworiparianstofindalastingpeacefulsolution.
Aftermanyyearsofdiscussions,theIndusWatersTreatywassignedin1960.ItwasagreedthattheamountofwateravailablefromtheInduswouldbeincreasedbyvariousengineeringworksfundedbytheWorldBank,andthesixprimaryriversoftheIndusbasinwouldbesplitevenlybetweenIndiaandPakistan(threetoeachparty).[2]TheIndusWaterTreatyremainsineffecttoday,andislargelyintactbecausetheamountofwateravailablewasabletobeincreasedtobothpartiesbytheconstructionofvariousworksthatwerefundedbyothercountries[2].Twoothercontributingfactorswerethesimplefactthatthesplittingoftheriverbranchesmadephysicalgeographicsense,andthatthepopulationlevelsatthattimedidnotexertstrenuousdemandsonwaterresources.However,thisregionisincreasinglygrowinginpopulationtoday,anditremainstobeseenhowrobusttheTreatywillremain.Ontheotherhand,itisinterestingtonotethatthisTreatyhaswithstoodthestrainsofthemajorwarsIndiaandPakistanhavefought.
TheresolutionoftheIndusRiverdisputeremainsasagoodlessoninthataslongasresourcesdonotbecomeovertlyscarce,andthereisstrongexternalarbitration,thereishopeforenvironmentalconflicttobepeacefullyresolvedtoalargeextent.However,itistruethatremotesensingcanstillplayanimportantroleinmonitoringlongtermchangeintheIndusRiverbasin,andaidinthemanagementofwaterflowandlanduse.WeshallnowturnourfocustotheeasternboundariesofIndiawhereafesteringdisputewillbecloselyexaminedinthenextsection,andthepotentialbenefitsofremotesensingapplicationswillbemoreapparent.TheGangesRiverDispute(Indiavs.Bangladesh)
TheGangesandBrahmaputrariverbasininSouthAsiaisthelargestintheregion,encompassingover1.6millionkm2.FlowingfromtheHimalayansinNepalandTibet,bothriverscoursethroughIndia,andultimatelyjoininBangladeshwheretheydischargeintotheBayofBengal.BeforetheGangesentersBangladesh,itdividesoffasmallerriver,theBhagirathi-Hooghly,thatflowsthroughtheportofCalcutta.Four-fifthsofBangladesh,anareasmallerthanNewYorkstate,isstraddledbythisdeltasystem.ApproximatelyhalfofthecountryGDPisbasedonagriculture,andhencetheserivers?
irrigationvalueisvitaltothecountryeconomyanditsover120millioninhabitants.[1]ThetopographyofBangladesh(i.e.itssealevelelevationanddeltawetlands)anditsgeographicallocationmakeitextremelyvulnerabletonaturaldisasters.Typhoonsandmonsoonsproducemultiplefl