汽车租赁和汽车销售市场之间的动态互动中英文外文文献翻译.docx

汽车租赁和汽车销售市场之间的动态互动中英文外文文献翻译.docx

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本科毕业设计（论文）

中英文对照翻译

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标题：

Dynamicinteractionbetweenmarketsforleasingandsellingautomobiles

作者：

AthanasiosAndrikopoulos，RaphaelMarkellos期刊：

JournalofBanking&Finance，No.50，pp：

260-270年份：

2015

原文

DynamicinteractionbetweenmarketsforleasingandsellingautomobilesAthanasiosAndrikopoulos，RaphaelMarkellos

Abstract

Wedevelopamodelofdynamicinteractionsbetweenpricevariationsinleasingandsellingmarketsforautomobiles.OurframeworkassumesadifferentialgamebetweenmultipleBertrand-typecompetingfirmswhichofferdifferentiatedproductstoforward-lookingagents.EmpiricalanalysisofourmodelusingmonthlyUSdatafrom2002to2011showsthatvariationsinselling（cash）marketpricesleadrapidlydissipatingchangesofleasingmarketpricesintheoppositedirection.Wediscussthepracticalimplicationsoftheseresultsbyaugmentingastandardleasingvaluationformula.Theadditionaltermsrepresenttheleasedassetvaluechangesthatcanbeexpectedonthebasisofpastvariationsinautomobilesellingmarketprices.

Keywords：

Interactingmarkets，Automobiles，DifferentialGames，Leasing，Valuation

1Introduction

Forhouseholdsindevelopedcountriestheautomobileistypi-callythesecondlargestassetpurchasedafterahouseandisthemostcommonlyheldnon-financialasset（Aizcorbeetal.,2003）.IntheUS,onethirdofallcarssoldisfinancedvialeasing（e.g.,seeHendelandLizzeri,2002;JohnsonandWaldman,2003）whileacomparableproportionofsalesinvolvescashtransactions（Manneringetal.,2002;Dasguptaetal.,

2007）.Despiteitsimpor-tance,theexactassociationbetweenleasingmarketsandcashmarkets（alsoknownassellingmarkets）isnotyetfullyunder-stood.Althoughsometheoreticalmodelsexist（seeBulow,1982,1986;BucovetskyandChilton,1986;PurohitandStaelin,1994;Purohit,1997;DesaiandPurohit,1998,1999;SaggiandVettas,2000;Huangetal.,2001）,theyaremostlystaticinnatureandmaketheunrealisticassumptionofperfectsubstitutability.More-over,nostudyexaminestheempiricallinkbetweenleasingandsellingmarketsforautomobiles.Theobjectiveofthepresentpaperistoshedfurtherlightonthisrelationship.Atatheoreticallevel,wemakemoregenericassumptionswhichpermitfordynamicinteractionsandimperfectsubstitutability.Atanempiricallevel,weuseUSmonthlydatatomodelforthefirsttimethedynamicrelationshipbetweenleasingandsellingmarketpricevariations.Ourresultsmotivateustodevelopanewdynamicleasingassetpricingapproachforautomobileswherebyshocksinsellingmarketpricesareallowedtohaveadissipativeeffectonleasingmarketpricesandresidualvalues.

Inthenextsectionwereviewtherelevantliterature.Section3laysoutourmodelfordescribingtheinteractionbetweenpricevariationsforautomobilesinleasingandsellingmarkets.Section4,estimatesempiricallythemodelusingmonthlyUSCPIdataanddiscussestheimplicationsoftheresultsforleasingvaluation.Thefinalsectionconcludesthepaper.

2Literaturereview

2.1TherelationshipbetweenleasingandsellingmarketsTheearliestattemptsinunderstandingtheassociationbetweenleasingandsellingmarketsoriginateintheinvestigationofdecisionsmadebyagentsinthemarketsfordurablegoodsundertheso-calleddurablegoodsmonopolyproblem（seeCoase,1972;Stokey,1981;Bulow,1982,1986;Guletal.,1986;BucovetskyandChilton,1986;PurohitandStaelin,1994;Purohit,1997;DesaiandPurohit,1998,1999;SaggiandVettas,2000）.Mostofthesepapersassumethatleasingandsellingareperfectsubstituteswithmarketparticipantsthatareindifferentbetweenthetwoalternatives.Moreover,thefocusofthesestudiesistoinvestigatetheconditionsunderwhichleasingistheoptimalstrategyinthecontextofdifferentmarketstructures.Arelatedstrandofliteratureexaminestherelationshipbetweenthemarketsfornewandusedautomobiles.Fromastaticperspective,Bresnahan（1981）,Berryetal.（1995）,Goldberg（1995）andPetrin（2002）gaugethemarketpowerofintroducingnewproductsintheautomobileindustry.However,asarguedbyBlanchardandMelino（1986）itisimportanttoemployadynamicapproachforatleasttworeasonswhicharediscussedbelow.First,dynamicsmayariseindurablegoodsmod-elsoftwointeractingmarketswhereusedcarsconstitutestockvariableswhichareimperfectsubstitutestonewcars.Forexample,Berkovec（1985）usestheeconometricestimatesofashort-runmodeltoforecastsalesandother

automobileindustryvariables.Rust（1985,1986）concentratesondynamicconsumerdemandindurablegoodswithnew,usedandscrappagemarketsforautomo-biles.TransactioncostsinadynamicsettingareconsideredbyKonishiandSandfort（2002）,Stolyaro