130323 MGWord文档格式.docx

130323 MGWord文档格式.docx

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China’sSilentArmy:

ThePioneers,Traders,FixersandWorkersWhoAreRemakingtheWorldinBeijing’sImage. 

ByJuanPabloCardenalandHeribertoAraú

jo.TranslatedbyCatherineMansfield. 

Crown;

350pages;

$26. 

Buyfrom 

A, 

Amazon.co.uk

ChinaGoesGlobal:

ThePartialPower. 

ByDavidShambaugh. 

OxfordUniversityPress;

409pages;

$29.95and£

20. 

A 

and 

Inthissection

∙Toastingtheworld（ornot）

∙Brothersinarms

∙Thejoyofstats

∙Complexpersecution

∙Wherefingersdothewalking

∙Diplomaticwhirl

Reprints

Relatedtopics

∙China

ACHANGINGChinahaslongbeenamirrorinwhichvisitorscanseetheirexpectationsandtheirowncharacterreflected.Glass-half-fullpeoplearguethathundredsofmillionshavebeenliftedoutofpovertyandmillionsarenowbeingempoweredbytheiruseoftheinternetandtheirincreasedspendingpower.Thelesspositivepointoutthathumanrightsareroutinelyabused,freedomofspeechisrestrictedandcorruptionendemic.Bothareright.Itjustdependswhereyoulookandwhatyouwanttosee.

Thesame,itturnsout,istrueofChina’sengagementwiththeworld,accordingtotwonewbooks.In“China’sSilentArmy”JuanPabloCardenalandHeribertoAraú

jo,bothSpanishjournalists,claimthatChinaisattheheightofitsexpansionacrosstheworldandthatitslong-termvocationisglobal.Theworld,theyargue,facesaslowbutsteadyconquestthatisalreadylayingthefoundationsforthenewworldorderofthe21stcentury:

“aworldunderChina’sleadership”.

Thetworeporterssetouttoshow,inahighlyreadablefashion,thegrowingChineseimpactoneverycorneroftheglobe.FromthegasfieldsofTurkmenistantothebazaarsofDubaiandtheminesofCongo,theyfindChineseworkerstryingtoextractwhattheycanfromforeigncustomersandtheearth’scrust.ThearrivalofgoodsandpeoplefromChinaischanginghowbusinessisdone.ChinesetradershavetakenoverthemainthoroughfareoftheSenegalesecapital,Dakar,whichisnowknownasBoulevardMao.TheyareplunderingBurma’sforestsandjademines.“TheChineseoverseascommunityislikeagiantMasoniclodge,”complainsoneArgentinian.“Wefeellikewe’relivinginaChinesecolony,”addsaPeruvianminer,whosemine（andtown）wereboughtbyastate-ownedChinesecompany.

Certainlythereisplentytocomplainabout.ManyChinesecompaniesbringtheirownworkerstoAfrica,ortreatlocalworkersbadlywhentheydohirethem.Environmentaldamageiswidespread.TheunaccountabilityofChinesecompaniesathomeisextendedabroadastheyteamupwithrapaciouslocalelites.

ThisisanimportantsummaryofsomeoftheworstChinesebehaviouraroundtheworld,buthyperboleweakensitsargument.Theauthorsclaimthatallthejobscreated,infrastructurebuiltandcheapgoodsprovidedare“undoubtedlyeclipsedbyitsapproachtolabourconditions”,ignoringthefactthatChineseinvestmentbringspositivechangeaswellasproblems.Theyindicatethatthe“Chinesemiracle”athomehasbeenamiraclemainlyforpoliticalelites,aclaimthatiseasytodisprovesimplybywalkingaroundanyChinesecity.Mostimprobably,theyclaimthattheworldisbecoming“sinicised”.

“ChinaGoesGlobal”tellstheothersideofthestory.Theauthor,DavidShambaugh,aChinaspecialistatGeorgeWashingtonUniversity,saysitiswrongeventosuggestthattheworldis,orwillbe,“underChina’sleadership”.Thecountryisnotnearlyaspowerfulaspeoplethink,heargues.Itsfootprintis“broad,butnotdeep”.MrShambaughtakesissuewiththeideathatChinaistryingtolockupinternationalmineralproductionandprovidesstatisticstobackuphisargument.“Buyup,yes,”hewrites.“Lockup,no.”Chinesecompanies’shareofglobalmininginvestmentswaslessthan6%ofglobaltransactionsin2010.FewChinesemergersandacquisitionsabroadhavebeensuccessful,andChina’soverseasdirectinvestmentisonaparwithDenmark’s.

Theauthorgoesontolookatthecountry’sglobalsecurityandculturalpresence.HeconcludesthatChinahaseithernottried（inthecaseofamilitarypresence）,orhastriedandfailed（inpushingitssoftpower）toexpanditsinfluenceglobally.HebelievesthenotionthatChinawillruletheworldtobe“profoundlyoverstatedandincorrect”.Andheaddsthatthenationhasa“verylongwaytogobeforeitbecomes—ifiteverbecomes—atrueglobalpower”.

MrShambaughalsoinvestigatesChina’sglobaleconomicexpansion.Exports,hesays,arestilldominatedbylow-endconsumerproductsandthereisalmostnoChinesebrandrecognition.“Merelyhavingaglobalpresencedoesnotequalhavingglobalpower,”hewrites.Chinesepeopleandcompaniesmayhavegoneglobal,butChinaisnotinfluencingworldaffairsbeyondtherealmoftradeandtheenergymarkets.Itisnotinfluentialinaddressingandsolvingglobalproblemsbecauseitsleadersaretoobusytryingtoaddressdomesticproblems.ThefactthatChinadoesnotreallyhaveacivilsocietyofitsownmeansitislesslikelytoengageincivilsocietyabroad.Itisanarrowlyself-interestedpowerthatventuresoverseastosupportitsowneconomicgrowthandlittleelse.

Theauthoradmitsthathewassurprisedbyhisfindings.Hehadexpectedtocometoaverydifferentconclusion.However,inoneexampleafteranotherheprovidessolidquantitativeevidenceforhisargument.“ChinaGoesGlobal”isafascinatingandscholarlychallengetothereceivedwisdomaboutChina’srise,andanimportantcritiqueoftheacceptednarrativeofChineseexpansionism.

AfricaandChina

Morethanminerals

ChinesetradewithAfricakeepsgrowing;

fearsofneocolonialismareoverdone

| 

NAIROBI 

AGROUPoffivetouristsfromBeijingpasseslowoverMountKenyaandintotheRiftValleyintheirprivateplanebeforelandingonadustyairstripsurroundedbytheyellowtrunksandmist-likebranchesoffevertrees.Theywalkacrossagrassyopeningwherezebrasandgiraffesroam,snappingpictureswhilekeepinganeyeoutforchargingbuffaloes.Whentheysitdownatatable,theyseemhungrybutatease.“LastyearIwenttotheSouthPolewithsomefriends,”saysoneoftwohousewives,showingoffiPhonepicturesofagaggleofpenguinsonpermafrost.

ChinesearecomingtoAfricainevergreaternumbersandfindingitacomfortableplacetovisit,workinandtrade.Anestimated1marenowresidentinAfrica,upfromafewthousandadecadeago,andmorekeeparriving.Chinesearethefourth-most-numerousvisitorstoSouthAfrica.AmongthemwillbeChina’snewpresident,XiJinping,whoisalsogoingtoTanzaniaandtheDemocraticRepublicofCongoonhisfirstforeignoutingasleader.

∙Morethanminerals

∙AddledinAddis

∙Ontothepolls

∙Let’stryalessawkwardembrace

∙Whathappenedtoreform?

∙Asia-Pacificpolitics

∙Nigeria

∙Africa

∙Africanpolitics

∙Chinesepolitics

TheoriginofChina’sfascinationwithAfricaiseasytosee.BetweentheSaharaandtheKalaharidesertsliemanyoftherawmaterialsdesiredbyitsindustries.ChinarecentlyovertookAmericaastheworld’slargestnetimporterofoil.Almost80%ofChineseimportsfromAfricaaremineralproducts.ChinaisAfrica’stopbusinesspartner,withtradeexceeding$166billion.Butitisnotallminerals.ExportstoAfricaareamixedbag（seechart）.Machinerymakesup29%.

ThesizeofChina’sdirectinvestmentinAfricaishardertomeasurethantrade.LastsummerChina’scommerceminister,ChenDeming,saidthenumber“exceeded$14.7billion,up60%from2009”.AroundthesametimetheChineseambassadortoSouthAfrica,TianXuejun,said:

“China’sinvestmentinAfricaofvariouskindsexceeds$40billion.”Apparently,thefirstfigureisforAfricaninvestmentsreportedtothegovernment.ThesecondincludesestimatesofChinesefundsflowinginfromtaxsheltersaroundtheworld.

Sino-Africanlinkshavebroadenedinthepastfewyears.TherelationshipisnowalmostasdiverseasAfricaitself.ButMrXiwillsearchinvainforthee-mailaddressofasingleAfricanleaderwhocanspeakfortherest,ratherasHenryKissingerlegendarilystruggledtofindasinglephonenumberforEurope.

UntilrecentlyChinaconcentratedonafewbigresource-richcountries,includingAlgeria,Nigeria,SouthAfrica,SudanandZambia.ButplaceslikeEthiopiaandCongo,wheremineralsarescarceorhardtoextract,arenowgettingmoreattention,notleastasmoreChinesebusinessesbranchoutintonon-resourcesectors.State-ownedcompaniescompetewithprivatefirms—bothtemptedbymarginsoftenfarhigherthanathome.YoungChineseprivate-equityfundsarealsocomingtoAfrica.

Africansarefarfrombeingsteamrollered.Theirgovernmentshaveshownasurprisingassertiveness.ThefirstpersontobeexpelledfromAfrica’syoungestcountry,SouthSudan,wasaChinese:

LiuYingcai,thelocalheadofPetrodar,aChinese-Malaysianoilcompanyandthegovernment’sbiggestcustomer,inconnectionwithanalleged$815moil“theft”.CongokickedouttworoguecommoditiestradersintheKivuregion.AlgeriancourtshavebannedtwoChinesefirmsfromparticipatinginapublictender,allegingcorruption.Gaboneseofficialsditchedanunfavourableresourcedeal.KenyanandSouthAfricanconservationistsareaskingChinatostopthetradeinivoryandrhinohorn.

AfricanelitesseeChinaastheirbiggestpartneramongemergingcountries,butbynomeanstheonlyone.Brazil,RussiaandIndia（alsointheBRICSclub）,aswellasTurkey,Sou