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ClimatePolicy

卷:

13；

期:

3；

页:

345-362；

页数:

18；

出版年份:

2013

出版地:

London

ISSN:

14693062

Apractitioner'

Fankhauser,Samuel

Abstract

DrawingprimarilyontheUKexperience,fivepracticallessonsareidentifiedforpolicymakerswhoseektodecarbonizetheireconomies.First,decarbonizationneedsasolidlegalbasistogiveitcredibilityandovercometimeinconsistencyproblems.Second,puttingapriceoncarbonisessential,butlow-carbonpoliciesalsohavetoaddresswidermarket,investment,andbehaviouralfailures.Thisinturnraisesissuesofpolicycomplexityandcoordination.Third,thelow-carboneconomyislikelytobehighlyelectrified.Cleanelectricitycouldbeacost-effectivewayofdecarbonizingmanypartsoftheeconomy,includingtransport,heating,andpartsofindustry.Decarbonizationthereforestartsinthepowersector.Fourth,thelow-carbontransitionisprimarilyarevolutionofproductionandnotconsumption.Bothsupply-sideinnovationanddemand-sideadjustmentsinlifestyleandbehaviourareneeded,thoughtheformershoulddominate.Fifth,thetransitiontoalow-carboneconomyiseconomicallyandtechnologicallyfeasible.Achievingitisaquestionofpolicycompetenceandhavingthepoliticalwilltodriveeconomicandsocialchange.

Keywords:

climatechangepolicy;

decarbonization;

greengrowth;

low-carbontransition;

mitigation;

UK

1.Introduction

Moreandmorecountriesaretakingactionagainstclimatechange.NearlyallmajorGHGemitters,includingmanyemergingmarkets,nowhaveclimatechangelegislationontheirstatutebooks（Town-shendetak,2011）.Itisdebatablewhethertheseefforts-andanyinternationalagreementthatmightreinforcethem-willbesufficienttolimitclimatechangetoanacceptablelevel.However,givenwhatisatstake,andthecomplexityofthetaskathand,itisimportantthatpolicymakerslearnfromoneanotherandestablishacodeofgoodlow-carbonpractice.ThisarticleattemptstodistilthemainlessonsfromtheUK.

TheclimatechangedebateintheUKisfairlyadvanced,withastronglegalbasisforclimateaction,ambitioustargets,andsophisticatedinstitutionalarrangements（Fankhauser,Kennedy,&

Skea,2009）.TheUKalsohasaconstantlyevolvingregulatorylandscape,withoccasionalpolicyfailuresandU-turns,whileawaningcommitmentamongpoliticiansandlatentclimatescepticisminpartsofthepressareputtingtheinstitutionalframeworkincreasinglytothetest.Assuch,theUKisagoodcasefromwhichtolearnlessons.1

Thereisarichanalyticalliteratureonmanyaspectsofclimatechangepolicy.Forexample,muchhasbeenwrittenabouttherelativemeritofdifferentpolicyoptions（Hepburn,2006;

Pizer,2002）,thedesignofemissionstradingschemes（Fankhauser&

Hepburn,2010a,2010b;

Grü

ll&

Taschini,2011;

Murray,Newell,&

Pizer,2009）,policyperformance（Ellerman&

Buchner,2008;

Ellerman,Convery,dePerthuis,&

Alberola,2010;

Martin,Preux,&

Wagner,2009）,andlow-carboninnovation（Acemoglu,Aghion,Bursztyn,&

Heinous,2009;

Aghion,Boulanger,&

Cohen,2011;

Aghion,Dechezleprê

tre,Heinous,Martin,&

vanReenen,2011;

Dechezleprê

tre,Glachant,Hascic,Johnstone,&

Mé

niè

re,2011;

Popp,2002）.

Thisarticlediffersfromtheexistingliteratureinthatittakesanexplicitlypracticalapproach.Whiledrawingontheanalyticalliterature,itlooksatthespecificcaseofacountrythatwantstoreduceitsGHGemissions,inthiscasetheUK.Thepolicyambitionismuchdeeperthanamarginalchangeinemissions,whichistheconcernofmuchoftheliterature.Itisacomprehensiveredesignofthemoderneconomy.Atthesametime,thescopeisnarrowerthanthatofthegreengrowthliterature,whichincludeswidernotionsofsustainabledevelopmentbesideslow-carbongrowth（Bowen&

Fan-khauser,2011）.Alldecarbonizationeffortswillfaceatleastfourchallenges.First,astronglegalandinstitutionalbasisforlow-carbonpolicymustbeputinplace（Section2）.Second,low-carbonobjectivesmustbetranslatedintoacredibleroadmapofsector,technology,andreformtargetsthatcanguidepolicyanddeterminewhethertheobjectivesareachievable（Section3）.Third,thenecessarypoliciestoimplementtheroadmapmustbeputinplace（Section4）.Fourth,thewidersocio-economicconse-quencesofdecarbonizationmustbemanaged（Section5）.ItisconcludedinSection6thatthelow-carbontransitionisachievableifthesechallengesaremetandthereissufficientpolicycompetenceandpoliticalwill.

2.Providingthelegalandinstitutionalbasis

Thestartingpointforeconomy-widedecarbonizationisastronglegislativebasis.Thefundamentalreformstoenergy,transport,industrial,agricultural,andfiscalpolicythatwillfollowwillneedstatu-torylegitimacy.Theadoptionofaclimatechangelawisalsoawayofforgingthebroadpoliticalcon-sensusneededduringimplementation.Itisstrikinghowmanyoftheclimatechangelawsinmajoreconomieshavebeenbipartisanefforts（Townshendetak,2011）.TheUKClimateChangeActof2008,forexample,waspassednear-unanimously.

Mostclimatechangelawsareunifyinglawsthatbringtogetherexistingstrandsofregulation（e.g.onenergyefficiency）,expressalong-termobjective,andcreateaplatformforsubsequentaction.TheUKClimateChangeActcallsforacutinGHGemissionsofatleast80%,relativeto1990,by2050.Thisisbasedonanambitiontolimitmedianglobalwarmingto2°

Candkeeptheriskofextremeclimatechange（ofsay4°

C）toaminimum.TheActalsodefinesthemechanismthroughwhichthelong-termtargetistobemet:

aseriesofstatutory,5-yearcarbonbudgetsthatsetabindingceilingforGHGemissionsoverthatperiod.TheUKhasbeensubjecttothiseconomy-widecarbonconstraintsince2008.

Oneofthekeypurposesofthelegislationistomakeastatementofintentthatcansubsequentlyguidepolicydeliveryandreduceuncertaintyfordecisionmakers.Althoughactionisrequiredimmedi-ately,buildingalow-carboneconomywilltakedecades,amuchlongertermthanpolicymakerscancrediblycommit.Thiscreatesproblemsforbusinesses,whichwillmistrustthelong-termvalidityoftheplanandhedgetheirbehaviour.Animportantroleofclimatechangelegislationistoovercomesuchtimeinconsistencyproblemsandinstillong-termcredibilityintothepolicyeffort.

Theissueisakintothecredibilityofinflationtargets（Kydland&

Prescott,1977;

Barro&

Gordon,1983;

Rogoff,1985）,andtheinstitutionalremediesthathavebeenproposedforbothproblemsbearsomeresemblancetooneanother.Anindependentinstitution,theCommitteeonClimateChange（CCC）,wascreatedtorecommendandmonitorcarbonbudgets,inthebeliefthattechnocratsaremorelikelytotakealong-termviewthanpoliticians.However,thecarbonbudgetsareultimatelypassedbyParlia-menttogivethemstatutorycredibility.AjudicialreviewislikelyifthegovernmentsystematicallyignorestheCommittee'

sadviceorifkeypolicydecisionsareinconsistentwithcarbonobjectives.

3.Definingastrategyfordelivery

Forthehigh-levelobjectivesoftheclimatelawtobecredibletheyneedtobebackedupbyasoundimplementationstrategy.TheUK,EU,andmanyotherjurisdictionshavedevelopedconcretedecarbo-nizationroadmapsforthispurpose（CCC,2010;

DECC,2011;

EC,2011）.Thesearenotblueprintsthatneedtobeimplementedtotheletter.Themarketsandprivateinitiativewilldeterminemostofthedetails.However,theyrepresentimportantstrategiesthatwilldetenninethespeedanddirectionoftravel.

Theseroadmapsareunderpinnedbyafairamountoftechnicalanalysis,whichensuresthatthestrat-egyistechnologicallyandeconomicallyrational,aswellasconsistentwiththeultimateemissionsobjective.Numericalsimulationmodelsarewellsuitedtothecalculationoftheleast-costwayofmeetingacertainemissionstargetundergiventechnologyconstraints.IntheUK,boththeCCCandtheDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange（DECC）haveusedsuchmodelstoinformtheirlow-carbonroadmaps.ThemodelevidenceusedbytheCCC,inparticular,isquitedetailed.Evenso,modelresultsareheavilycomplementedandqualifiedbyprofessionaljudgement.

Least-costoptimizationmodels（e.g.MARKAL）areusedtodeterminethecorrectchoiceoftechnol-ogiesasafunctionoftheircostprofiles（CCC,2010）,whicharethemselvesderivedfromdetailedengin-eeringstudies（e.g.MottMcDonald,2011）.Least-costmodelsalsoinformtheallocationofscarceresourcesamongcompetinguses;

e.g.indeterminingwhetherthelimitedsupplyofsustainablebiomassshouldbeusedforelectricitygeneration,heating,ortransport（CCC,2011a）.Detailedmodelsoftheelectricitymarketcansimulatehowthepowersectorwillcopewitharisingshareofinter-mittentrenewablesandinflexiblenuclearcapacity（Pö

yry,2011）.Least-costmodelsprovideestimatesofthelikelyeconomiccosts,althoughthesebottom-upestimatesshouldbecomplementedwithgeneralequilibriumormacro-econometricmodelmns（Barkeretak,2007）.

Akeyquestionthattheroadmapshouldanswerisaboutthespeedofdecarbonization:

'

Whatisthemosteconomicallyrationalrateofbringingemissionsdown?

'

Theanticipatedfallinthecostoflow-carbontechnologiesandtheeffectofdiscountingsuggeststhataslowstartwillbefollowedbysteepemissionsreductionslater.2However,progressinreducingtechnologycostsisafunctionofcumulativeinvestment,notjustthepassageoftime.Postponinglow-carboninvestmentmaythereforedelaythepointatwhichthes