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TheinvestmentanalysisofVankeCorporation
VankeCorporationLtd.wasestablishedinMay1984,isthelargestprofessionalresidentialdevelopmentcompany,It’sHeadquarteredwasfoundedinShenzhenandhassetupbranchofficesin20cities.It'
scorporationshareswaslistedinMay1993,andthecompany'
stotalsharecapitalismorethan1.02millionshares.Ouranalysishasbeendividedintosixparts:
Macroeconomicanalysis,industrialanalysis,financialstatementanalysis,equityvaluationanalysisandtechniqueanalysisandconclusionandreference.
PartoneMacroeconomicanalysis
MacroeconomicandIndustryAnalysis
1.TheGlobalEconomy
Theglobaleconomyisstillinthestageofrecoveryfromtheworldeconomiccrisis.
Theeconomicsentimentindicators(suchasGDPgrowthrate)oftheworld'
smajoreconomicscontinuetoimprove,aswellastherecoveringinternationaltradeandinvestment.However,theproblemsbroughtbythefinancialcrisisin2008stillexistinsomedevelopedcountriesandhaveapossibilitytooutbreak,thusdamagingtheglobalrecoveringeconomy.Theunemploymentrateremainshighintheworld'
smajoreconomies,particularlyindevelopedeconomies,whichwillbringarangeofsocialandpoliticalproblemsandleadtheeconomicrecoveryintheworldtouncertainty.
2.DomesticMacroeconomic
TheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)hasbeenbeyondthemarketexpectationsformonthssinceOctober,2010andthereisinflationarypressureinChina'
seconomicdevelopment(assuggestedbythefigurebelow).
•
•On14thJanuary,China'
sCentralBankannouncedtoraisethedepositreserveratiooffinancialinstitutionsby0.5percentagefrom20thJanuary,2011.Thedepositreserveratiooflargefinancialinstitutionswillreachanewrecordof19%aftertheadjustmentwhilethereserveratioofsmallandmediumsizedfinancialinstitutionswillreach15.5%,withtheblockedfundamountingtoapproximately350billion.
•CentralBankstatisticsreleasedin2010financialreport.ThefinancialreportreleasedbytheCentralBankshowsthatbytheendof2010thegrowthrateofmoneysupplycontinuestorebound,withthebroadmoneybalancereaching¥
72.58trillion(showedanincreaseof19.7%)andnarrowmoneybalancereaching¥
26.66trillion(21.2%increase);
theannualnetcashreached¥
6281billionwithanincreaseof¥
235.4billion;
foreignexchangereservesshowedabalanceof$2.8473trillionwithanincreaseof18.7%.
Intermsofthecommoditymarkets,theoverallcapitaladequacywillcontinuetoprovidesupportforthepricesofbulkcommodities;
whileintheviewoftheindex,togetherwiththechangingpolicies,China'
sstockmarketwillexperienceamoresubstantialfluctuationintheyear2011duetothesensitivenessofChina'
sstockmarket.
Parttwoindustrialanalysis
1.China'
shugeurbanhousingdevelopmentspace
Withtheglobaltrendsofurbanization,developingcountrieswillseetheacceleratedurbanizationinthe21stCentury.AccordingtothestatisticsreleasedbytheConstructionDepartment,China'
surbanhousingareapercapitawas14.87squaremetersbytheendof2000,whichliesinthesamelevelwiththeworld'
smiddle-incomecountries.
2.Solidfoundationofrealestateindustry
Realestateindustryisinnaturepolicy-orientedandcloselyrelatedtothemacro-economy.In1998,thegovernmentproposedtoboomingthedomesticeconomybyboomingtheresidentialindustryandannouncedsupportivepolicies(lowertheloaninterestrate,forexample),thussuccessfullyincreasingconsumerdemandandimprovingtherealestateindustry.DatafromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsshowthatthetotalinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentreached624.5billionin2001,representingadoubleincreasecomparedwiththefigurein1997andtheamountofnationalcommercialhousingsoldreached382.5billionwithanincreaseof29%.
Meanwhile,theboomingmortgageloanbusinessgreatlyimprovedtheresidents'
abilityofpaymentofownhousesandprovidesolidsupportforthehealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry.Datafromthenationalbanksuggestedthatattheendof2001,thenationalindividualhousingloanshasreached506.8billion.
Basedonthegovernmentpolicyofexpensingdomesticdemand,therealestateindustrywillcontinuetoimproveinthenext3to5years.
3.Standardizedmarketsandconcentratedindustry
Withthemarketizationoflandtransactions,duetotheimprovedirregularitiesinlandsupplyanddisorderlycompetitionandtheconstraintonpremiumpaymentincreasetheaccessthresholdfortherealestateindustry,theprofitabilityoftherealestateindustryasawholetendtobereasonable.Thenextfewyearswillseethesurvivaloffittestdomesticrealestateenterprisesandchangestomarketizationandconcentrationoftheindustry.Th