2014年全球风险报告.docx

2014年全球风险报告.docx

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InsightReport

GlobalRisks2014NinthEdition

GlobalRisks2014,NinthEditionispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForum.

Theinformationinthisreport,oronwhichthisreportisbased,hasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthattheauthorsbelievetobereliableandaccurate.However,ithasnotbeen

independentlyverifiedandnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadeastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofanyinformationobtainedfromthirdparties.Inaddition,thestatementsinthisreportmayprovidecurrentexpectationsoffutureeventsbasedoncertainassumptionsandmayincludestatementsthatdonotdirectlyrelatetoahistoricalorcurrentfact.Thesestatementsinvolveknownandunknownrisks,uncertaintiesandotherfactorswhicharenotexhaustive.Thecompaniescontributingtothisreportoperateinaconstantlychangingenvironmentandnewrisksemergecontinually.Readersarecautionednotto

placeunduerelianceonthesestatements.Thecompaniescontributingtothisreportundertakenoobligationtopubliclyreviseorupdate

anystatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwise,andtheyshallinnoeventbeliableforanylossordamagearisingfromtheuseoftheinformationinthisreport.

WorldEconomicForumGeneva

Copyright©2014

BytheWorldEconomicForum

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,orotherwise,withoutthepriorpermissionoftheWorldEconomicForum.

ISBN-13:

92-95044-60-6

ISBN-10:

978-92-95044-60-9

REF:

090114

Thisreportandaninteractivedataplatformareavailableatwww.weforum.org/risks.

WorldEconomicForum91-93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland

Tel.:

+41（0）228691212

Fax:

+41（0）227862744

contact@weforum.orgwww.weforum.org

GlobalRisks2014

59

GlobalRisks2014NinthEdition

WorldEconomicForumincollaborationwith:

Marsh&McLennanCompaniesSwissRe

ZurichInsuranceGroupNationalUniversityofSingapore

OxfordMartinSchool,UniversityofOxford

WhartonRiskManagementandDecisionProcessesCenter,UniversityofPennsylvania

Contents

7 Preface

KlausSchwab

9 ExecutiveSummary

11Introduction

12Part1:

GlobalRisks2014:

UnderstandingSystemicRisksinaChangingGlobalEnvironment

26 Part2:

RisksinFocus

262.1Introduction:

UnderstandingGlobalSystemicRisk

272.2InstabilitiesinanIncreasinglyMultipolarWorld

33 2.3GenerationLost?

38 2.4DigitalDisintegration

42 2.5StrategiesforManagingGlobalRisks

50 Part3:

TowardsTenYearsoftheGlobalRisksReport

52Conclusion

53AppendixA:

DefinitionsofGlobalRisks2014

55 AppendixB:

GlobalRisksPerceptionSurveyandMethodology2014

57 Acknowledgements

Preface



Ourlivesarechangingatanunprecedentedpace.Transformationalshiftsinoureconomic,environmental,geopolitical,societalandtechnologicalsystemsofferunparalleledopportunities,buttheinterconnectionsamongthemalsoimplyenhancedsystemicrisks.Stakeholdersfromacrossbusiness,governmentandcivilsocietyfaceanevolvingimperativeinunderstandingandmanagingemergingglobalriskswhich,bydefinition,respectnonationalboundaries.

Conceptualmodelsareneededtodefine,characterizeandmeasurethepotentialnegativeimpactsofinterconnectedglobalrisks.ItisinthisspiritthatIpresenttheGlobalRisks2014report,nowinitsninthedition.Thisreportaimstoenhanceourunderstandingofhowacomprehensivesetofglobalrisksisevolving,howtheirinteractioncanleadtounexpectedandoftensystemicimpacts,andthetrade-offsinvolvedinmanagingthem.

GlobalRisks2014isastimulusforreflectionforpolicy-makers,chiefexecutiveofficers,seniorexecutivesandthoughtleadersaroundtheworld.Itisalsoacalltoactiontoimproveinternationaleffortsatcoordinationandcollaboration,goingbeyondthetraditionalrolesandresponsibilitiesofthepublicandprivatesectorstoequipinstitutionstounderstand,map,monitor,manageandmitigateglobalrisks.

Thereportemphasizestheimportanceofunderstandingsystemicrisks,

long-termthinkingtoaddressand

mitigatethemandthecriticalroleoftheyoungergeneration.Todoso,itoffersdeep-diveanalyticalinsightsintointerconnectedriskswiththepotentialtohavesystemicconsequencesinthegeopolitical,socio-economicanddigitalspheres.Thereportfeaturesananalysisofasurveyofover700leadersanddecision-makersfromtheWorldEconomicForum’sglobalmultistakeholdercommunityon31selectedglobalrisks.Forthefirsttime,surveyrespondentswereaskeddirectlytonominatetheirrisksofhighestconcern