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OnMaintainingTrust
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PartIIReadingComprehension(SkimmingandScanning)(15minutes)
Inthispart,youwillhave15minutestogooverthepassagequicklyandanswerthequestionsonAnswerSheet1.Forquestions1-7,choosethebestanswerfromthefourchoicesmarkedA),B),C)andD).Forquestions8-10,completethesentenceswiththeinformationgiveninthepassage.
Ratesarelow,butconsumerswon'
tborrow
Withheavydebtloadsandhighjoblessness,Americansarecautious
TheUSFederalReserve(Fed)'
sannouncementlastweekthatitintendedtokeepcreditcheapforatleasttwomoreyearswasaclearinvitationtoAmericans:
Gooutandborrow.
Butmanyeconomistssayitwilltakemorethanlowinterestratestopersuadeconsumerstotakeonmoredebt.Therearealreadysignsthattherecentstockmarketfluctuations,turbulenceinEuropeandtheUSdeficithavescaredconsumers.OnFriday,preliminarydatashowedthattheThomsonReuters/UniversityofMichiganconsumersentimentindexhadfallenthismonthtolowerthanitwasinNovember2008,whentheUnitedStateswasdeepinrecession.
Undernormalcircumstances,theFed'
sannouncementmighthaveattractednewhomeandcarbuyersandpromptedcreditcardholderstorackupfreshcharges.Butwithunemploymenthighandthosewithjobsworriedaboutkeepingthem,consumersaremoreconcernedaboutpayingofftheloanstheyalreadyhavethanaddingmoredebt.Andbyshowingitshandforthenexttwoyears,theFedmayhavethoughtlesslyinvitedprospectiveborrowerstoputofflargepurchases.
Lenders,meanwhile,arestilldealingwiththeeffectsoftheboom-gone-bustandareforcingprospectiveborrowerstogotoextraordinarylengthstoprovetheircreditworthiness.
"
Idon'
tthinklendersaregoingtobeinterestedinextendingalotofdebtinthisenvironment,"
saidMarkZandi,chiefeconomistofMoody'
sAnalytics,amacroeconomicconsultingfirm."
NordoIthinkhouseholdsaregoingtobeinterestedintakingonalotofdebt."
Inhousing,consumershavealreadyshownaslowresponsetolowrates.Applicationsfornewmortgageshavedecreasedthisyeartoa10-yearlow,accordingtotheMortgageBankersAssociation.Salesoffurnitureandfurnishingsremain22%belowtheirpre-recessionpeak,accordingtoSpendingPulse,aresearchreportbyMasterCardAdvisors.
Creditcardrateshaveactuallygoneupslightlyinthepastyear.Theonebrightspotinlendingisthenumberofautoloans,whichisupfromlastyear.Butsomeeconomistssaythatconfidenceamongcarbuyersishittingnewlows.
ForXavierWalter,aformermortgagebankerwhowithhiswife,Danielle,accumulated$20000increditcarddebt,lowrateswillnotchangehisspendinghabits.
Asthehousingmarkettoppedoutfiveyearsago,helosthissix-figureincome.Heandhiswifewereabletomodifythemortgageontheirfour-bedroomhouseinMedford,NewJersey,aswellasnegotiatelowercreditcardpayments.
Twoyearsago,Mr.Walter,a34-year-oldfatherofthree,startedanenergybusiness.Hehasswornoffcredit."
I'
mnotgoingtogobackindebteveragain,"
hesaid."
IfIcan'
tpayforitincash,Idon'
twantit."
Untilnow,oneofthebiggestrestraintsonconsumerspendinghasbeenadebtaftereffect.SinceAugust2008,whenhouseholddebtpeakedat$12.41trillion,ithasdeclinedbyabout$1.2trillion,accordingtoananalysisbyMoody'
sAnalyticsofdatafromtheFederalReserveandEquifax,thecreditagency.Alargeportionofthat,though,wassimplywrittenoffbylendersasborrowersdefaultedonloans.
Byothermeasures,householdshaveimprovedtheirposition.Theproportionofafter-taxincomethathouseholdsspendtoremaincurrentonloanpaymentshasfallen.
Still,householddebtremainshigh.Thatpresentsaparadox:
manyeconomist