国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料Word文档格式.docx

国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料Word文档格式.docx

《国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料Word文档格式.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《国际金融FinanceTestBank9资料Word文档格式.docx（30页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

technicalforecasting.

d.

mixedforecasting.

ANS:

BPTS:

1

2.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresentsoleuseoftoday'

sspotexchangerateoftheeurotoforecasttheeuro'

sfutureexchangerate?

3.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresenttheuseofrelationshipsbetweeneconomicfactorsandexchangeratemovementstoforecastthefutureexchangerate?

APTS:

4.Whichofthefollowingforecastingtechniqueswouldbestrepresentthesoleuseofthepatternofhistoricalcurrencyvaluesoftheeurotopredicttheeuro'

sfuturecurrencyvalue?

CPTS:

5.Ifaparticularcurrencyisconsistentlydecliningsubstantiallyovertime,thenamarket-basedforecastwillusuallyhave:

underestimatedthefutureexchangeratesovertime.

overestimatedthefutureexchangeratesovertime.

forecastedfutureexchangeratesaccurately.

forecastedfutureexchangeratesinaccuratelybutwithoutanybiastowardconsistentunderestimatingoroverestimating.

6.Accordingtothetext,theanalysisofcurrenciesforecastedwithuseoftheforwardratesuggeststhat:

currenciesexhibitedaboutthesamemeanforecasterrorsasapercentoftherealizedvalue.

theCanadiandollarcanbeforecastedbyU.S.firmswithgreateraccuracythanothercurrencies.

theSwissfranccanbeforecastedbyU.S.firmswithgreateraccuracythanothercurrencies.

noneoftheabove

7.Assumethefollowinginformation:

PredictedValueof

RealizedValueof

Period

NewZealandDollar

1

$.52

$.50

2

.54

.60

3

.44

.40

4

.51

.50

Giventhisinformation,themeanabsoluteforecasterrorasapercentageoftherealizedvalueisabout:

1.5%.

26%.

6%.

6.5%.

e.

D

SOLUTION:

[|$.52-$.50|/$.50+|$.54-$.60|/$.60+|$.44-$.40|/$.40+|$.51-$.50|/$.50）]/4

=[.04+.10+.10+.02]/4

=.065=6.50%

PTS:

8.Ifitwasdeterminedthatthemovementofexchangerateswasnotrelatedtopreviousexchangeratevalues,thisimpliesthata____isnotvaluableforspeculatingonexpectedexchangeratemovements.

technicalforecasttechnique

fundamentalforecasttechnique

alloftheabove

9.Whichofthefollowingistrue?

Forecasterrorscannotbenegative.

Forecasterrorsarenegativewhentheforecastedrateexceedstherealizedrate.

Absoluteforecasterrorsarenegativewhentheforecastedrateexceedstherealizedrate.

Noneoftheabove.

DPTS:

10.Whichofthefollowingistrueaccordingtothetext?

Forecastsinrecentyearshavebeenveryaccurate.

Useoftheabsoluteforecasterrorasapercentoftherealizedvalueisagoodmeasuretouseindetectingaforecastbias.

Forecastingerrorsaresmallerwhenfocusedonlongertermperiods.

11.Afundamentalforecastthatusesmultiplevaluesoftheinfluentialfactorsisanexampleof:

sensitivityanalysis.

discriminantanalysis.

technicalanalysis.

factoranalysis.

12.Whenthevaluefromthepriorperiodofaninfluentialfactoraffectstheforecastinthefutureperiod,thisisanexampleofa（n）:

laggedinput.

instantaneousinput.

simultaneousinput.

BandC

13.Assumeaforecastingmodelusesinflationdifferentialsandinterestratedifferentialstoforecasttheexchangerate.Assumetheregressioncoefficientoftheinterestratedifferentialvariableis-.5,andthecoefficientoftheinflationdifferentialvariableis.4.Whichofthefollowingistrue?

Theinterestratevariableisinverselyrelatedtotheexchangerate,andtheinflationvariableisdirectly（positively）relatedtotheinterestratevariable.

Theinterestratevariableisinverselyrelatedtotheexchangerate,andtheinflationvariableisdirectlyrelatedtotheexchangerate.

Theinterestratevariableisdirectlyrelatedtotheexchangerate,andtheinflationvariableisdirectlyrelatedtotheexchangerate.

Theinterestratevariable