原油价格与石油产品价格外文翻译文献中英文最新Word文件下载.docx

原油价格与石油产品价格外文翻译文献中英文最新Word文件下载.docx

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Areviewoftheevidenceontherelationbetweencrudeoilpricesandpetroleumproductprices

LouisEderington,ChitruFernando

Abstract

Wereviewalargebodyoftheempiricalliteraturefocusingontherelationbetween 

petroleumproduct 

pricesandoilpricesanddiscusstheevidenceonthedirectionof 

causality 

betweencrudeoilpricesandpetroleumproductprices.Inaddition,wesurveytheliteratureonthemuch-debatedquestionofwhetherpetroleumproductpricesresponddifferentlytoincreasesversusdecreasesinoilprices,whichBacon（1991）labeledthe“rocketsandfeathers”phenomenon.

Keywords:

Oilprices,Petroleumproductprices,Energyeconomics,Commodities

1. 

Introduction

Thissurveyisthefirstofatwo-partseriesthatreviewstheextantempiricalevidenceregardingthebehaviorof 

petroleumproductfuturesprices.Hereinwereviewtheliteraturefocusingontherelationbetweenpetroleumproductpricesandoilprices.Inthecompanionreview（Ederingtonet 

al.,2018a）,weturntothegeneraldistributionalcharacteristicsofpetroleumproductprices,theinfluenceoffundamentalfactorssuchasrefineryoutagesandweatheronproductprices,thewaythatpricediscoveryoccursforpetroleumproductprices,thepredictiveaccuracyofpetroleumproductfuturespricesforfuturespotprices,andtheimpactofspeculationonpetroleumproductprices.

Crudeoilisthe“mainingredient”inrefinedpetroleumproducts.Twoprimaryhypothesesregardingthecausalrelationbetweenoilpricesandpetroleumproductpriceshavebeenpresentedintheliterature.Thefirstarguesthattheprimarycausalrelationrunsfromoilpricestoproductprices（seethesurveyof 

FreyandManera,2007;

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,2014）andrestsonthehypothesisthatthemarginalpriceofabarrelofapetroleumproductshould,inprinciple,bedeterminedbythehighestmarginalcostofoilused.Analternativeisthat 

runsintheoppositedirection（Verleger,1982, 

2011;

Baumeisteret 

al.,2018）.Thedirectionofcausalityhasimportantimplicationsfortheregulationandorganizationofthesemarketsandthefacilitationoftrade.Numerousauthorsinvestigatingthelinksbetweenoilpricechangesandproductpricechangeshavetakenthedirectionofcausationasagivenandassumedthatthedominantchannelisfromoilpricestoproductprices.However,recentevidencesuggeststhatcausalitymayrunfromproductpricestooilprices.Whetherthereisacausallinkrunningfromproductpricestooilpriceshasreceivedlimitedalthoughincreasingattention（Ascheet 

al.,2003;

Kaufmannet 

al.,2009;

Kilian,2010;

BilginandEllwanger,2017;

al.,2018）.Theevidencesupportingthefirsthypothesisrestsgenerallyontheanalysisofdatameasuredatamonthlyorweeklyfrequency,whereassupportforthealternativehypothesisrestsgenerallyonthebehaviorofdatameasuredataquarterlyorlongerfrequency.

Oneimportantpartofthedialogueabouttheshort-termconnectionbetweenoilpricesandpetroleumproductpricesisthespeedandmagnitudeofproductprices'

responsetochangesinoilprices.Thisresponseisoftenreferredtoasthe“rocketsandfeathers”phenomenon,aphrasecoinedby 

Bacon（1991） 

todescribethefastriseresponseingasolinepricestoincreasesinoilpricesandtheslowfallasoilpricesdecline.Thisquestionformsthebasisofalong,ongoingdebateaboutwhethergasolineprices（andotherproductprices）respondmorestronglyandquicklytooilpriceincreasesthantooilpricedecreases.Pricesofrefinedpetroleumproductssuchasgasolineandheatingoilhavelongbeenafocalpointofinteresttoindividualconsumers,industrialproducersandconsumers,aswellaspublicpolicymakersandacademics.Whengasolinepricesarerising,thereismuchpopularconsternation.Allegationsofcollusiononthepartofretailsellersaswellas 

predatorypricing 

arecommon.Forinstance,hearingsconductedbytheU.S.SenateCommitteeonEnergyandNaturalResourcesemphasizedthemission“Toexploretheeffectsofongoingchangesindomesticoilproduction,refininganddistributiononU.S.gasolineandfuelprices.” 

Nodoubtasaconsequenceoftheregulatoryandantitrustattentionfocusedonthisindustry,alargeempiricalliteraturestudyinggasolinepriceshasdeveloped.

Hereinwereviewtheevidenceregardingcausalityandthewaysthatpetroleumproductpricesrespondtoincreasesordecreasesinoilprices.Aspartofourreview,wealsoexaminetheempiricalevidenceonwhichmarket-determinedoilpriceservesastheprincipalbenchmarkforproductprices.

2. 

Petroleumproductprices

2.1. 

Crudeoilpricesandproductprices

Heatingoil,gasoline,andfueloilareallrefinedfromcrudeoil.Thepricesof 

petroleumproducts 

areinextricablylinkedtothepriceofcrud