原油价格与石油产品价格外文翻译文献中英文最新Word文件下载.docx

1、A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product pricesLouis Ederington, Chitru FernandoAbstractWe review a large body of the empirical literature focusing on the relation betweenpetroleum productprices and oil prices and discuss the evidence on the direction o

2、fcausalitybetween crude oil prices and petroleum product prices. In addition, we survey the literature on the much-debated question of whether petroleum product prices respond differently to increases versus decreases in oil prices, which Bacon （1991） labeled the “rockets and feathers” phenomenon.Ke

3、ywords: Oil prices, Petroleum product prices, Energy economics, Commodities1.IntroductionThis survey is the first of a two-part series that reviews the extant empirical evidence regarding the behavior ofpetroleum productfutures prices. Herein we review the literature focusing on the relation between

4、 petroleum product prices and oil prices. In the companion review （Ederington etal., 2018a）, we turn to the general distributional characteristics of petroleum product prices, the influence of fundamental factors such as refinery outages and weather on product prices, the way that price discovery oc

5、curs for petroleum product prices, the predictive accuracy of petroleum product futures prices for future spot prices, and the impact of speculation on petroleum product prices.Crude oil is the “main ingredient” in refined petroleum products. Two primary hypotheses regarding the causal relation betw

6、een oil prices and petroleum product prices have been presented in the literature. The first argues that the primary causal relation runs from oil prices to product prices （see the survey ofFrey and Manera, 2007;U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2014） and rests on the hypothesis that the margi

7、nal price of a barrel of a petroleum product should, in principle, be determined by the highest marginal cost of oil used. An alternative is thatruns in the opposite direction （Verleger, 1982,2011;Baumeister etal., 2018）. The direction of causality has important implications for the regulation and o

8、rganization of these markets and the facilitation of trade. Numerous authors investigating the links between oil price changes and product price changes have taken the direction of causation as a given and assumed that the dominant channel is from oil prices to product prices. However, recent eviden

9、ce suggests that causality may run from product prices to oil prices. Whether there is a causal link running from product prices to oil prices has received limited although increasing attention （Asche etal., 2003;Kaufmann etal., 2009;Kilian, 2010;Bilgin and Ellwanger, 2017;al., 2018）. The evidence s

10、upporting the first hypothesis rests generally on the analysis of data measured at a monthly or weekly frequency, whereas support for the alternative hypothesis rests generally on the behavior of data measured at a quarterly or longer frequency.One important part of the dialogue about the short-term

11、 connection between oil prices and petroleum product prices is the speed and magnitude of product prices response to changes in oil prices. This response is often referred to as the “rockets and feathers” phenomenon, a phrase coined byBacon （1991）to describe the fast rise response in gasoline prices

12、 to increases in oil prices and the slow fall as oil prices decline. This question forms the basis of a long, ongoing debate about whether gasoline prices （and other product prices） respond more strongly and quickly to oil price increases than to oil price decreases. Prices of refined petroleum prod

13、ucts such as gasoline and heating oil have long been a focal point of interest to individual consumers, industrial producers and consumers, as well as public policy makers and academics. When gasoline prices are rising, there is much popular consternation. Allegations of collusion on the part of ret

14、ail sellers as well aspredatory pricingare common. For instance, hearings conducted by the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources emphasized the mission “To explore the effects of ongoing changes in domestic oil production, refining and distribution on U.S. gasoline and fuel prices.”N

15、o doubt as a consequence of the regulatory and antitrust attention focused on this industry, a large empirical literature studying gasoline prices has developed.Herein we review the evidence regarding causality and the ways that petroleum product prices respond to increases or decreases in oil price

16、s. As part of our review, we also examine the empirical evidence on which market-determined oil price serves as the principal benchmark for product prices.2.Petroleum product prices2.1.Crude oil prices and product pricesHeating oil, gasoline, and fuel oil are all refined from crude oil. The prices ofpetroleum productsare inextricably linked to the price of crud