外文翻译金融危机对房地产的影响.docx

外文翻译金融危机对房地产的影响.docx

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外文翻译金融危机对房地产的影响

TheEffectofFinancialCrisistoRealEstate

Thesub-loancrisisisalsocalledasthesubprimemortgagecrisisandtranslatedasthesubprimelendingcrisis.ItreferstoafinancialstormthatoccurredintheUnitedStatesduetothebankruptcyofthesub-mortgageagencies,theforcedclosingoftheinvestmentfunds,andthesevereturbulenceofthestockmarket.Itledtothecrisisinlackofliquidityattheworld'smajorfinancialmarkets.TheU.S."Sub-LoanCrisis"begantoemergefromthespringof2006.FromAugustof2007,itstartedtosweepthroughtheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnion,Japan,andothermajorfinancialmarketsintheworld.

Sub-loanmeans"subprimemortgageloan".“Sub”meansthepoorsidecorrespondingto“high”and“excellent”,whileinthe"sub-loancrisis"itreferstothelowcreditandlowdebt-repayingcapacity.

Subprimemortgageloanisahigh-riskandhigh-yieldindustry,whichreferstotheloansofferedbyanumberoflendinginstitutionstotheborrowerswithpoorcreditandlowincome.Comparingtothetraditionalstandardmortgageloans,thesubprimemortgageloansdemandlowlevelsontheborrowers’credithistoryandrepayingability,butitscorrespondinglendingrateismuchhigherthanthenormalmortgageloans.Thosewhoarerefusedonhigh-grademortgageloansbythebankfortheirbadcredithistoryorweakrepayingabilitymayapplyforthesubprimemortgageloanstobuyhouses.

Whenthehousepriceisgoingup,thesubprimemortgageloansbusinessisbooming.Eveniftheborrower’scashflowcannotrepaytheloan,theymayobtainre-loansfromthevalue-addedrealestatetofillthegap.However,whenthehousepricemaintainsorgoesdown,therewillbeafundinggapandthenthebaddebts.

Thesubprimemortgageloanisakindofhousingmortgagesabroad,tosupplyloanstothepeoplewithlessincomeorlower-levelcredithistory.Thereasonforsupplyingloanstothesepeopleisthatthelendinginstitutionscanreceiveamortgageinteresthigherthanthegoodcreditmortgage.Whenthehousepricesrise,theloanswillhavenoproblemsasaresultofadequatevalueinpledge;butwhenthehousepricesfall,valueinpledgeisnolongersufficient,whilethemortgagerhaslessincome,thustheloancontractmaybebreachedandthehousemaybereturnedtothebank.Itwillcausetheincreaseinthebaddebtsofthemortgager,thecollapsedcasesofthemortgageprovidersandtherisksinthefinancialmarkets.

Theaddedvalueofrealestateindustryaccountsformorethan5%ofthegrossdomesticproduct（GDP）inourcountry.Asapillarindustry,ithasplayedanimportantroleinthenationaleconomy.

YuXiuqin,thespokeswomanofBeijingMunicipalBureauofStatisticssaidonOctober14,2004,thatBeijing’sGDPinthefirstquarterincreased13%overthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.ThereleasedRealEstateInvestmentReportbytheFixedAssetsInvestmentDivisionofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommissiononOctober15indicatedthattheinvestmentgrowthrateinthefirstthreequartersreducedto20.3%from40.6%inthefirstquarter,"rankinginamorereasonablerange."ButtheReportalsopointedoutthatthegreatdroppingintherealestateinvestment"leadingindicators（landdevelopment,etc.）”undoubtedlyaffectedthepotentialgrowthofinvestmentinrealestate.Thedelayedimpactfrommacro-controlmeasuresshallbepaidattentionsto."ThisReportobviouslyremindedthatthedevelopmentandinvestmentinrealestatemaymaintainthedownwardtrendduetotheimpactofmacro-control,anditmayfurtherhaveacertainimpactonBeijing’seconomicgrowth

Whatimpactcanmacro-controlbringonBeijing’sGDP?

DingXiangyang,DirectorofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommission,saidwhenhereportedtoBeijingPeople'sCongressStandingCommitteeontheimplementationofnationaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentplanduringthefirsthalfyear,thataseriesoflandpoliciesinBeijingsuchasthemoratoriumonagriculturallandrequisition,theceasingofagreedlandtransfer,andtheclean-upofinvestmentprojectsindevelopmentzones,aswellasthemacro-control,hadprobablyeffectedaninvestmentofaboutRMB120billionyuan,withabout2-3percentagepointsonaffectingtheannualeconomicgrowthinthenextfewyears.TheReportoftheFixedAssetsInvestmentDivisionfinallyshowedthatfromtheinvestmentinrecentyears,theproportionofrealestateinvestmenthadalwaysbeenmaintainedatabove55%,whichdidnotmatchthedirectionofindustrialrestructuringondevelopinghigh-techindustriesandmodernmanufacturingsectors.Inordertomaintaintheconsecutiveandstableeconomicgrowthofthecityandoptimizetheindustrialstructure,itisnecessarytointensifytheinvestmentstructureadjustmentandincreasetheproportionofindustrialinvestment,especiallyunderthecircumstancesthatthepotentialsintherealestateindustryareaffected

Wecanseesuchalogicrelationship:

therealestateinvestmentmaintainsahighproportioninrecentyears,whilethemacro-controlreducestherealestateinvestmentgrowthrate,whichwillannuallydecreaseseveralpercentagepointsofBeijing’sGDPinthenextfewyears.RealestatehasanextraordinaryimpactonBeijing'seconomy.

Theproportionofrealestateinvestmentistoolarge?

AccordingtotheplanningofNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,BeijingCityhascleanedupthefixedassetsprojectsinthecity.FromtheinformationofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommission,therearemorethan6000projectsbeingcleanedup,inwhichmorethan600projectsinvolvedinviolations.Amongthem,thereare53projectsbeingstoppedtheconstructionorcancelledand554projectsbeingsuspendedtheconstructionforrectification,withatotalinvestmentamountofRMB164billionyuan,accountingfor1/5ofthetotalnumberinourcountry.Fromtheprojectclean-upsituation,thereisstillmorethan50%ofinvestmentconcentratedintherealestatefieldamongallthecity'sinvestmentprojectsbeingconstructedorplannedforconstruction.FiguresshowthattherealestateinvestmentinBeijingaccountsfor56.5%ofthetotalinvestmentintheentiresociety,farexceedingthenationalaveragelevelof18%.TheReportoftheFixedAssetsInvestmentDivisionofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommissionsuggeststhattheproportionofrealestateinvestmentistoolarge,"andthisdoesnotmatchthedirectionofindustrialrestructuringondevelopinghigh-techindustriesandmodernmanufacturingsectors."

However,RenZhiqiang,PresidentofHuayuanGroupwhoresearchesmuchontheeconomicindexessaid,"Beijingoriginallyhasalotoflandsforuse,buttheCapitalhasnotimplementedconstructionsforalongtime,andnowtheconstructiondevelopsafterconqueringgreatdifficulties,ahigherproportionofrealestateinvestmentisnormal."ProfessorYeJianping,HeadoftheLandManagementDivisionofRenminUniversityofChina,consideredthatdemandsforhousingandthesupplyinBeijinginrecentyearshadpromotedtheproportiongrowthofinvestment,althoughthisproportionof56.5%wasmuchhigherthantheinternationalaveragelevel.However,itisverydifficulttoevaluatewhetheritisrightornotatspecialstagesinaspecificperiod."Nevertheless,theremustbeproblemsifsuchproportionmaintainsinalongperiod."SomeoneintheFixedAssetsInvestmentDivisionofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommissionsaidthatahigherproportioninrealestateinvestmenthascertainrationalityatthepresentstageonacceleratingurbantransformation,urbanizationandeconomicgrowth.Andnowallaspectsoftherealestateindustryarestillwithinthesafetylineingeneral.Alargenumberofbubblephenomenonsuchashousingvacancyorpriceskyrocketinghavenotoccurred.Buthealsopointedoutatthesametimethatitwasveryeasytoemergebubblesastherealestateindustrywasgreatlyaffectedbythepolicy.ThereforeBeijing,asalarge-sizedcity,iftheproportionofrealestateinvestmentistoolarge,thecity’swholeeconomywillaccordinglybecomemorevulnerable.

WhoisthelargestcontributortoGDP?

TheofficialdatafromBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommissionshowthatthedirectpullingroleofrealestateonBeijing’sGDPisbetween5%and10%.ExpertsbelievethatthedirectcontributionoftherealestateindustrytoGDPcompletelyresultsfromthedemandgrowthintherealestatemarket.ItisreportedthatthevolumeofdemolitioninBeijingreducesattheannualrateof20%for5consecutiveyears.Therewereabout100,000removinghouseholdsinBeijing5yearsago,butin2004therewereonly20,000.InthepastaconsiderableportionofthedemandinBeijingrealestatemarketconsistsofurbanrenewal,infrastructureconstructionaswellasalargenumberofdemolitionsinvestedbythegovernment.Nowalthoughthegovernmentdemolitionsdeclinealot,theconsumptionamounthasnotreduced,thustherealestatemarketremainsastrongdemand."Withthisdemand,therelativelyhighproportionofrealestateinGDPisquitenormal,becauseBeijing'srealestateisnotforBeijingCityonly,butforthewholecountryandeventheworld."

InadditiontothepullingroleofthestrongdemandsinrealestatemarketonBeijing’sGDP,itiswellknownthattherealestateindustrydrivesitsupstreamanddownstreamindustries.SomeoneinBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommissiondisclosed:

"Accordingtothesalesestimation,theproportionofrealestateandtherelevantindustriessuchasitsdrivenrawmaterialsandserviceindustryisabout1:

1.2.""Realestateinvestmentcandriveadozenoforahundredofrelatedi