消费信贷的决定因素外文翻译.docx

消费信贷的决定因素外文翻译.docx

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消费信贷的决定因素外文翻译

外文翻译

原文

TheDeterminantsofConsumerCredit

MaterialSource:

Source:

ConsumerCreditinEurope—RisksandopportunitiesofaDamnicIndustryy

Author:

DanielaVandone

1Introduction

Theliteratureofconsumercreditissizeable.Suchabodyofworkreflectsnotonlythecompositenatureofunsecureddebt,butalsothefactthatdifferentmethodologicalapproachesexistdependingontheresearchquestionsunderanalysisandtheobjectivessought.

Fourmainapproachescanbeseen:

amanagementapproach,whichfocusesonthecharacteristicsofthecreditindustry,itsworkingsandthepoliciesadoptedbysupply-sideplayers;alegalapproach,whichinvestigatestheimpacttheregulatoryframeworkhasoncompetitionandconsumerprotection;asocio-psychologicalapproach,whichanalyseshowindividualsareaffectedbyconsumptionbehaviorandindebtednesschoices;aneconomicapproach,whichforthemostpartconcentratesonthedeterminantsofthedemandforandsupplyofconsumercreditandonananalysisofthecharacteristicsofindividualsandhouseholdsindebt.

Inthischapterwewilldiscusstheeconomicapproachwiththeaimofprovidinganoutlineoftheindividualandinstitutionalfactorsthatareconsideredintheliteratureasdeterminantsofconsumercredit,itsdiffusionanddistributionamongstdifferentsegmentsofthepopulation.

Theeconomicmodelsreferredtoarebasedontheeconomicrationalityofindividuals,whoseektoincreaselivingstandardsbysmoothingconsumptionoverdifferentperiodsoftheirlivesthroughsavingandborrowingdecisions.Accordingtothesemodels,consumercreditdemandandsupplyisdeterminedbyindividualfactors,i.e.socio-demographicandeconomicfactors,aswellasbyinstitutionalfactors,i.e.theinstitutionalcontextinwhichborrowersandlendersareplaced.

Thesestudies,whichfirstappearedinthesecondhalfofthetwentiethcentury,havebeenflankedinrecentyearsbyworkinbehavioraleconomics,whichfocusesinsteadonthepsychologicalvariablesthatinfluenceanindividual’sbehaviorandwhichhaverevealedthatthisbehaviorisatoddswiththerationalchoicespositedbytraditionaleconomicmodels.

Theanalysisoftheliteratureofferedhere,ratherthanattemptingtorepresentanexhaustivesummaryofempiricalestimationsandeconomicmodelsusedbytheauthorsofthevariousworkscited,moremodestlyaimstoprovideabasisforspecificinvestigationsintothediffusionofconsumercreditinEurope,thenatureoftheconsumercreditindustry,thecausesofover-indebtednessandthemostappropriatepolicyresponsestotheproblem.

2TheLife-CycleandPermanentIncomeTheories

Thetheoreticaleconomicframeworkforconsumption,savingandindebtednessdecisionsdevelopedwithintheLife-Cycletheory,developedbyModiglianiandBrumberg1954,andthePermanentIncomeHypothesis,proposedbyFriedmanin1957.

（1）

Thecentralideaoftheseinter-temporalconsumptionchoicemodelsisthathouseholdsmaketheirconsumptionchoices（andconsequentlythoserelatingtosavingandindebtedness）onthebasisoftheirwealth,currentdisposableincomeandfutureincomeexpectationssoastoguaranteeauniformlevelofconsumptionovertheirlifetimes.

Theunderlyingassumptionofthesemodelsisthatincomeisgenerallylowinanindividual’searlyworkinglifeandtendstorisetowardsretirement.Individualsatthestartoftheirworkinglife,expectinghigherfutureincomereceipts,financethepurchaseofassetsinordertoraiseconsumptionoverthelevelofferedbycurrentincome.Nearingtheendoftheirworkinglives,inversely,individualsraisesavingslevelsinpreparationforretirementwhenspendingwillbegreaterthanearnings.Withinthisframework,savingandindebtednessguaranteeheightenedeconomicwelfarebysmoothingoutconsumptionovertime.

Inthe‘‘standardtheory’’,namedassuchbyModiglianihimself,theeconomicmodelpositsthatchoicesregardinghouseholds’consumptionlevelsoverdifferentperiodsoftheirlifearesubjecttoaninter-temporalbudgetconstraint.Consequently,theymaydecideinacertainyeartospendmorethanavailableincomebyrunningdownallorpartoftheirassetsand/orbyborrowing,providedthatsuchasolutionistemporaryandthattheydiesolvent.

（2）

Considerablefurtherempiricalanalysesofthetheoryhavestressedtheneedforthestandardmodeltotakeintoaccounttwoadditionalaspects（AndoandModigliani1957;Modiglianietal.1985;Modigliani1988;Deaton1992;Alessieetal.1997;Attanasio1999）:

–Householdsdemandfordebtissubjecttofactorsotherthanincomeandwealth;

–Householdsmaybe‘‘liquidityconstrained’’.

Table1.1Consumercreditdemandandsupplyfactors

CREDITDEMAND

INDIVIDUALFACTORS

Socio-demographic

Age

Education

Sizeandcompositionoffamily

Economic

Income

Wealth

Uncertainty

INSTITUTIONALFACTORS

Efficiencyofjusticesystem

Information-sharing

Informalcreditmarkets

CREDITSUPPLY

Encompassingtheseaspectseffectivelyimpliesthemodelshouldaddressvariablesthatinfluenceboththedemandandsupplysidesofthecreditmarket（Table1.1）.Thesevariablescanbeeither‘‘individual’’or‘‘institutional’’.Individualfactorsregardthecharacteristicsofanindividualandhis/herhouseholdandcanbeclassifiedintotwoclasses:

socio-demographic（forexample,age,sizeandcompositionofthefamily,education）andeconomic（forexample,employmentstatus,workprofiles,financialassets）.

Institutionalfactorsthatcharacterizelocalcreditmarketsincludethejusticesystem,theexistenceandqualityofinformation-sharingmechanismsamongstfinancialinstitutions,andthepresenceofinformalcreditcircuits（borrowingfromrelativesandfriends）.

Thesamevariables,individualandinstitutional,influencebothcreditdemandandsupply,albeitnotalwaystothesameextentandinthesamedirection.（3）

3EmpiricalFindings

EmpiricalanalysesaimedatstudyingthedeterminantsofhouseholdcreditmarketsandtheircoherencewithLife-CycleandPermanentIncomemodelsfocusonthefollowingareas,accordingtotheresearchquestionstheyinvestigate:

–Participationinthecreditmarket

–Levelofborrowing

–Cross-countrycharacteristics

–Riskofover-indebtedness

–Creditconstraints

Workacrosstheseareasexaminesbothindividualandinstitutionalvariables.Analysishastypicallyconcentratedonthedemandside,thoughabranchofstudyhasusedeconomic

4BehavioralEconomics

BehavioraleconomicshasinrecentyearsproposedalternativetheoriestoLife-CycleandPermanentIncomemodels（Brownetal.2005;Karlssonetal.2004;Ranyardetal.2006;StoneandVasquezMaury2006;Supriyaetal.2005;Poppe2008;Yangetal.2007;GrahamandIsaac2002）.Thesestudieshavefocusedonbehavioralaspectsthatmaysignificantlyinfluenceindividuals’decisionsrelatingtospending,savingorindebtedness.Theseaspectsdifferfromthesocio-demographicandeconomicvariablesanalyzedwithintheeconomicmodelsdiscussedinthepreviousparagraphs.

Theresearchmodelsadoptedwithinbehavioraleconomicsarebasedonempiricalresultsandanomaliesregardingconsumerbehaviorthatconflictwithtraditionalnotionsofeconomicrationality.Severalstudieshaveinfactshownhowthebehaviorofindividualsdeviatessystematicallyfromthe‘‘rationalchoice’’modelofstandardeconomictheorieswithoutimplyingthatsuchbehaviorisirrational.（8）

Individualchoicesareinfluencedbypsychologicalfactors,suchaspersonaltaste,forecastingerrorsandimpatience,whichasaresultpreventindividualsfrommaximizingfutureutility（Kilborn2005;MeierandSprenger2007）.

Threemainpsychologicalfactorsareidentifiedintheliteratureasinducingindividualstomakenonrationalborrowingchoices:

–Overconfidencebias

–Availabilityheuristic

—Hyperbolicdiscounting

Studiescarriedoutwithinbehavioraleconomicshavealsoshownthatindividualshavelittleawarenessoftheexistenceandconsequencesthesepsychologicalmechanismshave.Indeed,individualsinfinancialdifficultiestendtolaytheblameonexogenousfactorssuchasillness,divorceorjobloss,whichreduceincomeslevelsbelowthoseexpected.Rarelydoindividualsrecognizethatthecausesfortheirdifficultieslieprincipallyoratleastalsowiththeirinabilitytomanagemoneyandthedecisionsmaderegardingspendingandindebtedness.Furthermore,manystudieshaveshownhowdeviantbehaviorpatternspersistevenwhenindividualsareawareoftheriskstheyface.Individuals’incapacitytotakecorrectivestepsdespiteknowingofthedangersofover-indebtednessmayhavesignificantrepercussiondesigningeffectivepoliciesforthemanagementofsituationsofindebtednessthatarealreadyorareatriskofbecomingpathological9（Kilborn2005;Watson2003;Leaetal.1995）.

5SummaryoftheDeterminantsoftheDemandforandSupplyofConsumerCredit

TheeconomicmodelsofthePermanentIncomeandLife-Cycletheoriescontinuetobeusedasaframeworkforanalysisofhouseholds’consumption,savingandindebtednessdecisions（Jappelli2005）.

However,workinbehavioraleconomicshasmadeanimportantcontributionindrawingattentiontotheroleplayednotonlybysocio-demographicandeconomicvariables,butalsopsychologicalfactorsasdeterminantsofthedemandforunsecureddebt.Ithasalsobeenshownhowpsychologicalfactorshaveanimpactontheeffectivenessofpoliciesadoptedtopreventexanteandmanageexpostfinancialdifficultiesarisingfromover-indebtedness.

Table1.3providesasummaryofthefactorsinfluencingthedemandforandsupplyofconsumercredit.Ascanbeseen,thesigns（+）and（—）arenotalwayshomogeneousandhavevaryingdegreesofintensi