上海市能源消费量的计量分析.docx
《上海市能源消费量的计量分析.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《上海市能源消费量的计量分析.docx(26页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
上海市能源消费量的计量分析
上海市能源消费量的计量分析
一、前言
在当今的国与国竞争中,能源问题已经成为非常重要的影响因素,在某种意义上说能源决定了一个国家的未来发展。
能否获得有效能源保障关系到很多国家的生存和发展。
在本文主要通过1985-2003年的一些数据,应用计量经济学的分析方法,来分析影响上海市的能源消费量的一些因素,并对未来的消费量进行粗略的预测。
通过分析,在掌握和熟练计量分析方法的同时,对上海市的能源问题进行分析,并提出一些自己的看法。
二、理论背景
在近期,我国相继采取了一系列的解决未来能源问题的行动,例如:
中国在巴西购买铝土,在智利购买铜,在澳大利亚购买锌,向哈萨克斯坦购买石油,与日本争夺“安大线”等等都表明能源对我国的重大意义。
能否保证能源的供需平衡是我国未来的一个巨大挑战。
而能源消费则成为此问题的重要因素。
鉴于此我选择中国经济发展的一个代表—我国经济最发达城市上海作为分析的对象,分析影响能源消费量的因素,来探究我国能源问题的过去、现在和未来。
三、模型建立与选择
本文选择一些宏观因素从总体和宏观的角度来分析能源消费量的问题。
本文选择了6个解释变量来解释能源消费量的变化,被解释变量------能源消费量是总体的能源消耗量,包括多种能源。
X1年末户籍人口表示人口数量,人口越多则对能源的需求量越多,消耗也越多。
GDP表示上海市国内生产总值,是上海市经济规模和活跃程度的一个体现。
用于教育的财政支出表示上海市对教育的主要投入,教育投入越多则表示人们素质就应该相对较高,科技人才就越多,科技水平就越高,相应能节省越多的能源。
人均可支配收入表示人们平均所拥有的消费能力,人均可支配收入越多则能源的消费越多。
全市财政收入主要包括全市企业所得和全市的税收收入,因此财政收入也表示上海市的经济规模和发展状况,财政收入越高则对能源的消费需求就越高。
本文利用Eviews软件对每个解释变量的组合进行最小二乘法回归分析,建立一个合适有效的估计方程。
然后,再利用夸特法对方程进行异方差检验,若存在异方差则利用加权最小二乘法进行修正。
若DW检验值表示存在自相关则利用广义差分法对其修正。
最终找到一个较准确有效的估计方程,继而对2004年上海市能源消费量进行预测。
四、数据来源分析
本文选择了6个解释变量(X1、X2、X3、X4、X5、X6,来解释能源消费量(Y其数据表格如下:
能源消费量(万吨标准煤Y
年末户
籍人口
(万人
X1
GDP(亿
元X2
工业总产
值(亿元
X3
用于教
育的财
政支出
(亿
元X4
人均可支
配收入
(元X5
全市财
政收入
(亿元
X6
消费价
格指数
(以
1952
年价
格
19852553.211216.69466.75862.736.581075263.86134.819862783.661232.33490.83952.217.511293257.72143.319872868.061249.51545.461073.847.471437241.36154.919882980.641262.42648.31304.668.61723261.69186.0019893111.031276.45696.541524.6710.251975297.25215.6019903191.061283.35756.451642.7511.352182284.36229.2019913466.521287.2893.771947.1812.482486324.66253.2019923656.921289.371114.322429.9614.933009340.13278.5019933946.731294.741511.613327.0420.064277439.53334.8019944176.641298.811971.924255.1931.215868615.91414.82
19954465.871301.372462.575349.5339.447172702.46492.3919964626.211304.432902.25126.2249.898159873.76537.6919974758.821305.463360.215649.9363.5984391070.95552.7419984874.111306.583688.25763.6776.0187731146.00552.7419995119.191313.124034.966213.2484.27109321390.58561.0320005492.081321.634551.156968.1893.79117181752.70575.0020015818.281327.144950.847656.96111.06128831995.62575.0020026118.531334.235408.768476.05116.0713250.172202.25577.9020036697.61341.776250.8111266.62131.3714867.492828.87578.50以上所有数据的原始数据都得来源于上海统计局网站公布的上海2000-2004统计年鉴具体来源如下:
能源消费量Y~来源于15.1能源消耗基本情况(1985~2003,是指上海市全市对于所有能源的消费量,主要包括煤、石油、天然气等能源的总消费量,衡量单位为万吨标准煤。
年末户籍人口X1~3.1历年户数、人口及人口密度,指上海市年末以户籍衡量的人口数。
GDPX2~2.1历年上海市生产总值,上海市各年的国内生产总值。
工业总产值X3~11.2历年工业总产值及指数,上海市各年的工业生产总值。
用于教育的财政支出X4~9.4主要年份用于文教、卫生、科学部门的财政支出,上海市财政支出中对教育的支出。
人均可支配收入X5~4.16城市居民家庭人均可支配收入(1985~2003,上海市居民人均可支配收入。
全市财政收入X6~9.1历年财政收入,上海市全市财政收入数额
居民消费价格指数~5.1历年居民消费价格指数,上海市历年的以1952年价格为基期价格计算的居民消费价格指数。
下表为通过居民消费价格指数(以1952年价格为基期调整为不变价格后的数据:
年份能源消费量
(万吨标准
煤Y
年末户籍人
口(万人
X1
GDP(亿
元X2
工业总产
值X3
用于教育的财
政支出(亿元
X4
人均可支
配收入X5
全市财政收
入X6
19852553.211216.69346.25640.014.8813797.47195.7419862783.661232.33342.52664.495.2408902.30179.8519872868.061249.51352.14693.254.8225927.70155.8219882980.641262.42348.55701.434.6237926.34140.6919893111.031276.45323.04707.184.7542916.05137.8719903191.061283.35330.04716.734.952952.01124.0719913466.521287.2352.99769.034.9289981.83128.2219923656.921289.37400.11872.525.36091080.43122.1319933946.731294.74451.593.745.99161277.48131.2819944176.641298.81475.371025.87.52381414.60148.4819954465.871301.37500.131086.458.00991456.57142.6619964626.211304.43539.76953.389.27861517.42162.5019974758.821305.46607.251022.1611.50441526.75193.7519984874.111306.58667.251042.7413.75141587.18207.3319995119.191313.12719.21107.4615.02051948.54247.8620005492.081321.63791.51211.8616.31132037.91304.8220015818.281327.14861.021331.6519.31482240.52347.06
20026118.531334.23935.931466.720.08482292.81381.082003
6697.6
1341.77
1080.51947.56
22.7087
2570.01489.00
①①以上数据除人口外都已换算为不变价计量的数据。
Y与X的散点图如下:
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1200
1250
13001350
X1
Y
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
200
400
600
80010001200
X2
Y
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
500
1000
1500
2000
X3
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
5
10
15
20
25
X4
Y
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
50010001500200025003000
X5
Y
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
100200300400500
X6
五、模型的估计和分析
对上面六个解释变量对被解释变量Y的所有组合作最小二乘法回归,结果如下:
F-statistic六元回归C-6219.07002975.2830-2.0902450.0585518.8512X16.06282.42252.5027280.0278
X23.37181.66462.0255370.0656
X30.56730.42241.3429690.2041
X419.640753.06130.3701510.7177
X50.54860.33721.6267080.1298
X6-3.69121.1815-3.1240870.0088
五元回归
C-13262.22002511.9410-5.2796710.0001370.8058
X111.69642.09285.588930.0001
X24.01022.13741.8762520.0832
X3-0.26360.4246-0.6208290.5454
X4-65.693558.8543-1.1162050.2845
X50.77410.42621.8163860.0924
C-7378.33603066.1210-2.4064070.0317552.1712
X17.09122.48222.8568190.0135
X24.32861.65292.618810.0212
X30.65220.44491.4657750.1665
X429.323755.96520.5239640.6091
X6-4.10271.2250-3.3490160.0052
C-6692.12102596.1150-2.5777450.0230666.8629
X16.40642.16202.9631540.0110
X23.88180.90244.3017670.0009
X30.44450.25271.7591410.1021
X50.56260.32381.7374910.1059
X6-3.46610.9788-3.541310.0036
C-8575.51902475.9570-3.4635170.0042586.0363
X17.91102.05433.8509380.0020
X24.83361.29783.7246310.0025
X4-36.321633.8491-1.0730440.3028
X50.60450.34491.7530580.1031
X6-2.69220.9459-2.8461850.0138
C-4529.91803178.6360-1.4251140.1777501.9880
X14.84952.61241.8563510.0862
X31.12680.35573.1679390.0074
X4108.610033.13173.2781270.0060
X50.79000.35112.2498540.0424
X6-3.98501.3051-3.0535420.0092
C1214.5360206.01755.8953040.0001442.2882
X22.34171.91181.2248440.2424
X31.16790.41202.8343520.0141
X470.527858.09191.2140730.2463
X50.76890.38591.9924830.0677
X6-5.89240.9351-6.3011450.0000
四元回归
C-13064.41002527.5930-5.1687150.0001455.2000
X111.69652.11115.5404970.0001
X21.86630.94581.9731970.0686
X30.06460.30900.2089830.8375
X50.77300.42991.798030.0938
C-16137.77002104.3480-7.6687740.0000397.4140
X114.14601.72678.1923330.0000
X25.53062.12202.6063020.0207
X3-0.27500.4581-0.6004350.5578
X4-65.440863.5034-1.0305090.3202
C-8138.35202630.3960-3.0939640.0079727.8623
X17.65042.18223.5058640.0035
X25.13680.57868.8777350.0000
X30.46980.26981.740970.1036
X6-3.77811.0292-3.6710450.0025
C-12915.67002394.7740-5.3932730.0001484.6877
X111.44752.00845.6997540.0001
X23.01791.38742.1751730.0472
X4-40.392341.5187-0.972870.3471
X50.77810.41671.8672480.0829
C-10267.33002443.1370-4.202520.0009637.3884
X19.37122.01214.6574360.0004
X26.14921.13455.4202770.0001
X4-34.855536.2578-0.961320.3527
X6-2.98530.9975-2.99270.0097
C-8754.10402483.6810-3.5246490.0034724.4222
X18.18342.04963.9927410.0013
X23.89930.96754.03040.0012
X50.59540.34661.7178090.1079
X6-2.73500.9501-2.8785850.0121
C-11899.46002612.1360-4.5554530.0004392.0493
X110.77282.20964.8755010.0002
X30.33220.30621.0848580.2963
X433.539328.04651.1958470.2516
X51.08730.42602.5523670.0230
C-5648.68103565.9690-1.5840520.1355485.3919
X15.97512.91242.0516480.0594
X31.52770.34964.369360.0006
X4166.087523.96196.9313240.0000
X6-4.79931.4242-3.3698150.0046
C-8351.59203851.2580-2.1685360.0478368.3625X17.66173.21362.3841290.0318
X30.45650.37901.2043060.2484
X51.67750.29125.761210.0000
X6-0.81051.1394-0.711370.4885
C728.3924370.63921.9652330.0695144.2209X21.20043.69270.3250870.7499
X30.19110.74070.258020.8001
X4-65.6980104.6171-0.6279840.5401
X52.30910.57933.98590.0014
C1367.3460210.51726.4951740.0000455.2830X23.51792.00201.757220.1007
X31.44870.42633.3985410.0043
X498.071162.12041.5787260.1367
X6-7.07270.7966-8.8782080.0000
C996.6806102.91179.6848150.0000534.3994X24.24271.11523.8043430.0019
X30.79430.27862.8505580.0128
X50.88030.38112.3100780.0366
X6-5.46990.8825-6.1979460.0000
C939.7948222.82314.2176720.0009366.6487X25.83071.79293.252080.0058
X4-52.427047.3584-1.1070260.2869
X51.14300.44442.571760.0222
X6-4.89531.0620-4.6094520.0004
C1363.6310169.15388.0614860.0000533.4250X31.49280.32084.6528630.0004
X4128.806633.91833.7975580.0020
X50.91480.37352.4491420.0281
X6-5.78390.9474-6.1049410.0000
C-10165.72003378.9490-3.0085450.0094379.8284X19.43762.78893.3839460.0045
X448.268734.77391.3880720.1868
X51.34730.38983.4563130.0039
X6-0.96021.1412-0.8414330.4142
三元回归
C-15936.55002099.5910-7.590310.0000527.3534
X114.14251.73038.1734540.0000
X23.39270.44707.5898680.0000
X30.05190.33110.156690.8776
C-15791.31001980.0890-7.9750530.0000553.3558
X113.89911.64098.4702490.0000
X24.50291.22743.6685590.0023
X4-39.033544.8213-0.8708690.3975
C-13191.65002373.6670-5.55750.0001648.2479
X111.81361.96935.9988940.0000
X21.94470.84002.3150470.0352
X50.77100.41591.8537910.0835
C-10414.25002432.1790-4.2818590.0007853.8613
X19.61151.99154.8263940.0002
X25.23290.61378.5263670.0000
X6-3.02230.9943-3.0396620.0083
C1006.4510513.82791.9587320.069093.8516
X25.95424.93311.2069810.2461
X30.61851.03460.597830.5589
X4-64.4138147.6724-0.4361940.6689
C926.2613191.19744.8445290.0002200.2482
X2-0.94361.3781-0.6847040.5040
X30.51930.51421.0098780.3286
X52.30800.56754.0669340.0010
C1078.8880109.63629.8406160.0000551.3577
X26.57150.541612.134370.0000
X30.95810.30603.1315080.0069
X6-6.70220.7983-8.3960720.0000
C-15812.73002473.2300-6.3935570.0000380.6276
X114.255