AcademicEnglishGrowinggreyNew.docx

AcademicEnglishGrowinggreyNew.docx

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Academic-English-Growing-grey

Growinggrey

JohnI.ClarkeandAndrewCraven

Thepopulationoftheworldisageing.Theproportionofelderlypeopleinbothdevelopedanddevelopingcountriesisgrowing.Thisarticleconsidersthestatisticsandsomeoftheimpactsofthisdemographicphenomenon.Itisrelevanttoanyonestudyingpopulationchange.

Weliveinanageistsociety,inwhichpeoplearediscriminatedagainstonthegroundsofage.Thisiscurious,becausemostcountriesintheworldhaveageingpopulations,withagrowingproportionofoldpeoplewhowillhaveanincreasingimpactuponallaspectsofpolity,societyandeconomy.

1Whoaretheold?

Therearenosharpthresholdsseparatingtheoldandtheveryold（sometimeslessharshlycalledelderlyandveryelderly）fromtherestofthepopulation.Internationally,theUNPopulationDivisiondefinestheoldasthoseaged60andover（UnitedNations,2005）.In2005therewereabout673millionoldpeopleaccordingtothisdefinition一10%oftheworldpopulationInthedevelopingworldthiswas8%ofthepopulationandinthedevelopedworld20%.TheratherlowUNthresholdof60makessenseinthedevelopingworld,aspeoplehavelowerlifeexpectanciesthere,butinthedevelopedworldasawholethoseaged60andoveralreadyoutnumberchildrenaged0-14.

ThewidelyciteddatasheetsofthePopulationReferenceBureau（Haute,2005）usethehigherthresholdof65andoverasadefinitionofoldage.Accordingtothis,about7%oftheworldpopulationwere"old"in2005:

only5%ofthedevelopingworld,but15%ofthedevelopedworld.IntheUKwehavetended,ratheridiosyncratically,todefineoldpeopleasthoseofpensionableage-65andoverformenand60andoverforwomen.Thisisdespitethefactthatwomentendtooutlivemen.Atthe2001census18.4%oftheUKpopulation,or10.8millionpeople,fellintothiscategory.Fortunately,thegenderdifferenceinthedefinitionisbeingreplacedbyageneralmoveto65andover.

2Whoaretheveryold?

Demographersoftendistinguishbetweenthe"oldandtheveryold,becausetheydifferconsiderablyintheiractivities,health,medicalandhousingneeds,independence,socialintegration/segregationandintheircontributionstosociety.EvenaccesstotheInternettendstovarybyage.Again,thereisnoclearcutthresholdfortherapidlygrowingveryoldpopulation.SeventyfiveandoveriscommonlyusedintheUKandotherdevelopedcountries,and85andoverfortheincreasingnumbersofvery,veryold.However,theUNPopulationDivisionprovidesdataforanintermediateagegroup-theoldest-old-aged80andover.In2005thisgroupaccountedforonly1.3%oftheworldpopulation,andmorethanhalfofthemwereinthedevelopedworldwherelessthanafifthoftheworldpopulationwasliving（UnitedNations,2005）

3Moreoldandveryoldpeople

Ageingofthepopulationismainlycausedby-theworldwidephenomenonoffertilitydecline,whichisbringingaboutwidespreadbutvariablereductionsinthepercentageofyoungpeople.Itisaugmentedbyincreasedlifeexpectancy.Thenumberofthoseaged60andoverintheworldisincreasingbyabout2%annually,fasterthanyoungeragegroups.In2000,therewereapproximatelythreetimesasmanypeopleaged60andoverintheworldasin1950;by2050theyareexpectedtotripleagaintoreach22%oftheworldtotal,oralmost1.9billion.Eightoutoftenofthemwillbelivinginthedevelopingworld.

Naturally,thepercentageofoldpeople（Figure1）andtheirrateofincreasevariesamongcountries.In2005,thoseaged60andoverrangedfrommorethan25%inJapan,ItalyandGermanytolessthan5%inmosttropicalAfricancountriesandintheoil-richcountriesintheMiddleEastthatattractnumerousyoungworkers.By2050,therangeisexpectedtobeevenwiderfrommorethan40%inJapan（whichhasthelongestlifeexpectancyintheworld）,Italy,theRepublicofKoreaandSloveniatostilllessthan5%inafewAfricancountries（EquatorialGuinea,LiberiaandSwaziland）.Broadly,ageingofpopulationisfastestincountrieswithrapidfertilitydecline（e.g.,China,theRepublicofKorea,Tunisia,IranandAlgeria）,andslowestintheleastdevelopedcountriesoftropicalAfrica（e.g.,Niger,Uganda）thathaveexperiencedlimitedfertilitydecline.Thesecontrastsbetweencountriesaremuchthesameifthe65-yearthresholdisused.InthisageingprocesstheUKisaboutaverageforadevelopedcountry.In2005,21%oftheUKpopulationwereaged60andover,andthisisexpectedtoriseto29%in2050.Bythistime.somedevelopedcountrieswillhavetwoelderlypeopleforeverychild.

Thegeographicaldifferencesareevenmorestrikingamongtheoldestagegroups,whoseratesofgrowtharemorerapidstill.UNprojectionsindicatethattheworldpopulationofoldest-oldaged80andoverisincreasingby4.2%annually.Itisexpectedtogrowfrom87million（1.3%oftheworldtotal）in2005to394million（4.3%ofthetotal）in2050,70%ofthisgrouplivinginthedevelopedworld.InIndiaandChinathisgroupmaynumber100millionand53millionrespectivelyby2050.Howevermuchhigherpercentagesofoldest-oldarelikelytobefoundinsomedevelopedcountries:

morethan15%inJapanandItaly,andupto9%intheUK（Figure2）Incontrast,manyAfricanpopulationswillstillhavelessthan1%oftheirpopulationsaged80andover.The2001censusintheUKgivesmorethan1.1millionpeople（1.9%）aged85andover.Thisis5.5timesthenumbercounted50yearsearlieratthe1951census.In2001thereweremorethanathirdofamillionaged90andover.Theveryoldisthefastestgrowingagegroup.

4Moreoldwomen

Womengenerallylivelongerthanmen,althoughthedifferencevariesfromover10yearsinmanycountriesvneasternEurope（13yearsinRussia）to1yearorlessinsomecountriesinsouth-centralAsia（Nepal,BangladeshandIndia）.Sothemajorityofolderpeoplearewomen,butthatmajortyincreaseswithage.Intheworldpopulationof2005,therewereabout10%morewomenthanmenaged60andover（67million）.However,thereweretwiceasmanywomenasmenaged80andoverandfourtimesasmanyfemalecentenarians.Inmale-dominatedsocieties,elderlywidowswhooutlivetheirusuallyolderhusbandsfaceparticularlyseveresocialandeconomicproblems.Morethanhalfofallwomenaged75andoverintheUKlivealone,comparedwithlessthanathirdofmenofthatage,becausemoreelderlymenremarry.

5Dependencyburden

Thesurgeinthenumbersandproportionofoldpeopleisposingagrowingage-relateddependencyburdenontheactivepopulationsofmostcountries.Thisissometimesmeasuredbyapotentialsupportratio（PSR）,whichistheratioofthenumberaged15-64tothoseaged65ormore.Since1950,theworldPSRhasfallenfrom12to9,andby2050itisexpectedtofallto4,alevelalreadyattainedbytheUKandSpain.ItisevenlowerthanthisinPortugal（3.9）,Greece（3.7）,Italy（3.5）andparticularlyinJapan（3.3）.By2020oneinfourJapanesewillbeover65.Inthedevelopedworld,wehavehadtimetobecomeaccustomedtothegrowingproblemsofpensions,poverty,health,housingandisolationofelderlypeopleinindividualisticsocietieswithlooseningfamilyties.Itisunfortunatethatthevaluableexperienceofelderlypeopleisoftenoverlookedasaresource.theyareinsufficientlyintegratedintosociety,andagrowingpercentageofthethemarelivingalone.Inthedevelopingworld,ageingofpopulationsishappeningmuchmorerapidly,asisurbanisationandadeclineinthecohesionoftheextendfamily,traditionallyasupportfortheelderly.Theproblemsofadjustmenttoageingarethereforemoreacuteandimmediateinlesseconomicallydevelopedcountries.

6Age-selectivemigration

Migrationplaysanimportantpartintheagedifferentiationofpopulations,particularlyatalocallevelwithincountries.Formanyyearthemovementofpeopleofworkingagehasdominatedmigrtion,butretirementmigrationhasacleareffectonthelocationofelderlypeopleindevelopedcountries.InBritainall10districtswiththehighestproportions（3.6%-4.6%atthe2001census）ofpersonssged85andoverandall10districtswiththehighestproportions（27.4-33.1%）ofpersonsofretirementagehavecoastallocationsinthesouthandsoutheastofEngland.Thesearetraditionalretirementareas（Figure3）.Sevenofthedistrictsappearinbothlists:

Christchurch（Dorset）,EastDevon,WestSomerset,Tendring（Essex）,Arun（WestSussex）,andRotherandEastbourne（EastSussex）.Theinevitablepreponderanceofoldwomeninthesedistrictsmeanstheyhavelowgenderratios,sometimesfewerthan90malesper100females.Nodoubtthepatternwouldhavebeensharperhaditnotbeenfortherecentpreferenceforretiringabroadtosunnierclimes.

Differentialageingofpopulationsalsoleadstointernationalmigration.Themoreagedpopulationsofthedevelopedcountriesareinevitablyattractingyoungermigrantworkersfromlessdevelopedcountries.AllcountriesoftheEuropeanUnion,forexample,arefacedwithgrowinginternationalmigrationandgrowingethnicdiversityofpopulations.Thesehavebecomethornypoliticaltopics,especiallywiththeemergenceofterrorismandmilitantreligiousfundamentalism.Theimpactofinternationalmigrationmaybeoneofthemajorconsequencesofageingpopulationsduringthe21stcentury.

References

Haub,C.（2005）.2005worldpopulationdatasheet.Washington,DC:

PopulationReferenceBureau.RetrievedOctober26,2011，fromwww.prb.org/pdf05/OSworlddatasheet_eng.pdf

UnitedNations（2005）.Worldpopulationprospects:

The2004revision,highlights（ESAlPlWP