AcademicEnglishGrowinggreyNew.docx

1、AcademicEnglishGrowinggreyNewAcademic-English-Growing-grey_NewAcademic-English-Growing-greyGrowing greyJohn I. Clarke and Andrew CravenThe populationof the world is ageing. The proportion of elderly people in both developed and developing countries is growing. This article considers the statistics a

2、nd some of the impacts of this demographic phenomenon. It is relevant to anyone studying population change.We live in an ageist society, in which people are discriminated against on the grounds of age. This is curious, because most countries in the world have ageing populations, with a growing propo

3、rtion of old people who will have an increasing impact upon all aspects of polity, society and economy.1 Who are the old?There are no sharp thresholds separating the old and the very old (sometimes less harshly called elderly and very elderly) from the rest of the population. Internationally, the UN

4、 Population Division defines the old as those aged 60 and over (United Nations, 2005). In 2005 there were about 673 million old people according to this definition一10% of the world population In the developing world this was 8% of the population and in the developed world 20%. The rather low UN thre

5、shold of 60 makes sense in the developing world, as people have lower life expectancies there, but in the developed world as a whole those aged 60 and over already outnumber children aged 0-14.The widely cited data sheets of the Population Reference Bureau (Haute, 2005) use the higher threshold of 6

6、5 and over as a definition of old age. According to this, about 7% of the world population were old in 2005: only 5% of the developing world, but 15% of the developed world. In the UK we have tended, rather idiosyncratically, to define old people as those of pensionable age-65 and over for men and 6

7、0 and over for women. This is despite the fact that women tend to outlive men. At the 2001 census 18.4% of the UK population, or 10.8 million people, fell into this category. Fortunately, the gender difference in the definition is being replaced by a general move to 65 and over.2 Who are the very ol

8、d?Demographers often distinguish between the old and the very old, because they differ considerably in their activities, health, medical and housing needs, independence, social integration/segregation and in their contributions to society. Even access to the Internet tends to vary by age. Again, the

9、re is no clear cut threshold for the rapidly growing very old population. Seventy five and over is commonly used in the UK and other developed countries, and 85 and over for the increasing numbers of very, very old. However, the UN Population Division provides data for an intermediate age group-the

10、oldest-old -aged 80 and over. In 2005 this group accounted for only 1.3% of the world population, and more than half of them were in the developed world where less than a fifth of the world population was living (United Nations, 2005)3 More old and very old people Ageing of the population is mainly

11、caused by- the worldwide phenomenon of fertility decline, which is bringing about widespread but variable reductions in the percentage of young people. It is augmented by increased life expectancy. The number of those aged 60 and over in the world is increasing by about 2% annually, faster than youn

12、ger age groups. In 2000, there were approximately three times as many people aged 60 and over in the world as in 1950; by 2050 they are expected to triple again to reach 22% of the world total, or almost 1.9 billion. Eight out of ten of them will be living in the developing world. Naturally, the per

13、centage of old people ( Figure 1)and their rate of increase varies among countries. In 2005, those aged 60 and over ranged from more than 25% in Japan, Italy and Germany to less than 5% in most tropical African countries and in the oil-rich countries in the Middle East that attract numerous young wo

14、rkers. By 2050, the range is expected to be even wider from more than 40% in Japan( which has the longest life expectancy in the world), Italy, the Republic of Korea and Slovenia to still less than 5% in a few African countries (Equatorial Guinea, Liberia and Swaziland). Broadly, ageing of populatio

15、n is fastest in countries with rapid fertility decline (e.g., China, the Republic of Korea, Tunisia, Iran and Algeria), and slowest in the least developed countries of tropical Africa (e.g., Niger, Uganda) that have experienced limited fertility decline. These contrasts between countries are much th

16、e same if the 65-year threshold is used. In this ageing process the UK is about average for a developed country. In 2005, 21% of the UK population were aged 60 and over, and this is expected to rise to 29% in 2050. By this time. some developed countries will have two elderly people for every child.T

17、he geographical differences are even more striking among the oldest age groups, whose rates of growth are more rapid still. UN projections indicate that the world population of oldest-old aged 80 and over is increasing by 4.2% annually. It is expected to grow from 87 million (1.3% of the world total

18、) in 2005 to 394 million (4.3% of the total) in 2050, 70% of this group living in the developed world. In India and China this group may number 100 million and 53 million respectively by 2050. However much higher percentages of oldest-old are likely to be found in some developed countries: more than

19、 15% in Japan and Italy, and up to 9% in the UK (Figure 2) In contrast, many African populations will still have less than 1% of their populations aged 80 and over. The 2001 census in the UK gives more than 1.1 million people (1.9%) aged 85 and over. This is 5.5 times the number counted 50 years ear

20、lier at the 1951 census. In 2001 there were more than a third of a million aged 90 and over. The very old is the fastest growing age group.4 More old womenWomen generally live longer than men, although the difference varies from over 10 years in many countries vn eastern Europe (13 years in Russia)

21、to 1 year or less in some countries in south-central Asia(Nepal, Bangladesh and India). So the majority of older people are women, but that majorty increases with age. In the world population of 2005, there were about 10% more women than men aged 60 and over (67 million) . However, there were twice

22、as many women as men aged 80 and over and four times as many female centenarians. In male-dominated societies, elderly widows who outlive their usually older husbands face particularly severe social and economic problems. More than half of all women aged 75 and over in the UK live alone, compared wi

23、th less than a third of men of that age, because more elderly men remarry.5 Dependency burdenThe surge in the numbers and proportion of old people is posing a growing age-related dependency burden on the active populations of most countries. This is sometimes measured by a potential support ratio (P

24、SR), which is the ratio of the number aged 15-64 to those aged 65 or more. Since 1950, the world PSR has fallen from 12 to 9, and by 2050 it is expected to fall to 4, a level already attained by the UK and Spain. It is even lower than this in Portugal (3.9), Greece (3.7), Italy (3.5) and particularl

25、y in Japan (3.3). By 2020 one in four Japanese will be over 65. In the developed world, we have had time to become accustomed to the growing problems of pensions, poverty, health, housing and isolation of elderly people in individualistic societies with loosening family ties. It is unfortunate that

26、the valuable experience of elderly people is often overlooked as a resource. they are insufficiently integrated into society, and a growing percentage of the them are living alone. In the developing world, ageing of populations is happening much more rapidly, as is urbanisation and a decline in the

27、cohesion of the extend family, traditionally a support for the elderly. The problems of adjustment to ageing are therefore more acute and immediate in less economically developed countries.6 Age-selective migrationMigration plays an important part in the age differentiation of populations, particula

28、rly at a local level within countries. For many year the movement of people of working age has dominated migrtion, but retirement migration has a clear effect on the location of elderly people in developed countries. In Britain all 10 districts with the highest proportions (3.6% -4.6% at the 2001 ce

29、nsus) of persons sged 85 and over and all 10 districts with the highest proportions (27.4-33.1%) of persons of retirement age have coastal locations in the south and southeast of England. These are traditional retirement areas (Figure 3). Seven of the districts appear in both lists: Christchurch (Do

30、rset), East Devon, West Somerset, Tendring (Essex), Arun (West Sussex), and Rother and Eastbourne (East Sussex). The inevitable preponderance of old women in these districts means they have low gender ratios, sometimes fewer than 90 males per 100 females. No doubt the pattern would have been sharper

31、 had it not been for the recent preference for retiring abroad to sunnier climes.Differential ageing of populations also leads to international migration. The more aged populations of the developed countries are inevitably attracting younger migrant workers from less developed countries. All countri

32、es of the European Union, for example, are faced with growing international migration and growing ethnic diversity of populations. These have become thorny political topics, especially with the emergence of terrorism and militant religious fundamentalism. The impact of international migration may be

33、 one of the major consequences of ageing populations during the 21st century.ReferencesHaub, C. (2005). 2005 world population data sheet. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. Retrieved October 26, 2011，from www.prb.org/pdf05/OSworlddatasheet_ eng.pdfUnited Nations (2005). World population prospects: The 2004 revision,highlights (ESAlPlWP