错误思维训练.docx

1、错误思维训练Argument（6580）From Samantha, CUFE65.The following appeared in the promotional literature for Cerberus dog food.“Obesity in humans is typically caused by consuming more calories than the body need. For humans, a proper diet for losing weight is a reduced-calorie diet that is high in fiber and c

2、arbohydrates but low in fat. Therefore, the best way for dog owners to help their dogs lose weight in a healthy way is to restrict the dogs diet to Cerberus reduce-calorie dog food, which is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat.”论据一：Obesity in humans is typically caused by consuming more c

3、alories than the body need.反驳：错误类比，对于humans来说肥胖的原因是calories的过度摄取，对于pet dogs来说不一定如此，有可能是因为饮食结构的不合理，也有可能是由于一个正常的摄入量和一个低水平的运动量的结合。论据二：For humans, a proper diet for losing weight is a reduced-calorie diet that is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat. Therefore, the best way for dog owners to h

4、elp their dogs lose weight in a healthy way is to restrict the dogs diet to Cerberus reduce-calorie dog food, which is high in fiber and carbohydrates but low in fat.反驳：错误类比，a reduced-calorie diet对于人类来说或许是一种好的减肥食谱，然而对于pet dogs来却不一定适合，因为人体所需要的营养和人类的消化系统与pet dogs还是有很大的来源于物种的差异的。此外，哪怕文中所提及的reduced-calo

5、rie diet，即高纤维、高碳水化合物，低脂肪的减肥食谱对于pet dogs来说同样适合，对人对pet dogs来说都只是一种proper way to lose weight，并不能推出将pet dogs的饮食限制于这样的食谱是最佳的为pet dogs减肥的方法（best way forto），一定有许多其他的方法能够帮助pet dogs减肥，比如运动减肥法，药物减肥法。特别需要强调的是，每一只pet dog个体health condition和体质都不同，作者以偏概全一概而论的方法是片面（one-sided; unbalanced）、不负责任的（irresponsible; casual

6、）。更甚，即使这样的食谱的确是唯一的最好的pet dogs减肥食谱，Cerberus也绝对不是唯一的选择，市面上还会有很多牌子的dog food的营养配方遵循这样的食谱。总体说来，作者所提供的证据（evidence）无法支持作者的结论。66.The following appeared in an article in a travel magazine.“After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number

7、one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month. And now Speedee is offering more flights to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for todays business traveler.“理由一：After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their

8、 on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month.反驳：作者只提供了航空工业要求airlines公布on-time rates之后Speedee航空公司的准点率情况，这并不能代表在此之前这家公司的准点率一直排名第一而且达到89%之高，很可能在此之前公司的准点率在业内（within the industry）排名非常靠后，公司正是借着airline industry将on-tim

9、e rates作为公开指标的机会提高自己的这项指标以便提高，甚至是挽救公司的声誉。此外，Speedee公司或许只有very limited amount of flights，甚至只有不到10条航线（less than 10 flights），因此89%的准点率并不能说明公司的航班有多么强的时间管理能力（time-managed ability）。并且，on-time rates只能是衡量航空公司服务的众多标准之中的一个，这个信息无法帮助我们推断出Speedee公司的服务质量、安全系数、航线丰富程度等其他信息。理由二：And now Speedee is offering more fligh

10、ts to more destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for todays business traveler.反驳：为了进一步支持自己的结论，作者提到这样一个事实：公司比以前提供了更多的航线（或者说destinations）。然而作者没有告诉我们公司之前的航线数量，正如上面假设的，或许公司之前只有极其有限的航线，那么哪怕一个非常大程度的提高，也无法使得公司拥有称得上“abundant”的destinations来满足市场需要，更何况作者根本没有给出信息告诉我们增长的程度（the level

11、of the increase）。此外，哪怕Speedee的确是一家非常好的航空公司，增加航线后的确拥有数一数二丰富的航线（have more flights/destinations than any other airlines in the industry），Speedee也不一定是business traveler的最佳选择。因为很可能其航线覆盖的大多是旅游目的地，并且价格相对于商务舱价位来说都太高，从需求和成本上都不能满足business traveler的需要，更何况，作者根本没有提供任何更多的证据让我们判断Speedee究竟是一家怎样的航空公司。67The following

12、appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an investment firm.“Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity. Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed. He

13、nce we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solarios chief executive was once the financial pl

14、anning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.”论据一：Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity.反驳：几种设备的成本降低了不足以证明整个转化solar energy into electricity设备的成本都降低

15、了，并且最近的降低（recently）不能保证降低的趋势一致延续下去，延续多长时间。作者也没有提供关于成本降低程度的信息，如果设备的成本本来就处于一个特别高的水平之上，短时间内的低水平dropping in costs无法保证进入这个行业的成本是很低的。论据二：Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed.反驳：作者主观认定new technologies是令人兴奋的，这样的判断标准值得怀疑，作者只是依据主观判断（subjec

16、tive）下了结论，没有客观的（objective）说服力。此外，正在被研发的新技术并不一定真正能够转化为生产力，并不一定对太阳能发电产业带来好的效应。观点一：Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power.反驳：作者根据以上两个不充分（inefficient）的观点得出了如上的结论，这个结论本身就没有说服力。此外，结论认为solar energy相比于coal和oi

17、l是一种更加经济、有吸引力的发电原料，在这个对比中，作者没有给出具体的关于coal和oil的具体信息，因此这样的结论不可信，这样的比较也缺乏事实根据。观点二：We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solarios chief executive was once the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm

18、that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.反驳：作者最后得出的结论是要投资新的solar-powered products（太阳能动力产品制造商），这明显犯了偷换概念的错误，假设solar energy作为发电材料真的是更加具有前景的，我们也无法肯定solar-powered products就是投资的好选择。更何况作者给出的补充理由极其没有说服力，一个曾经在软件工程公司的financial planning team中取得过成绩的人作为完全不同行业公司的CEO并不一定有很强的实力，况且一个team的成功无法

19、作为衡量个人能力的决定性（exclusive）标准，因此Solario公司并不一定是有能力、有潜力、能够带来盈利的投资对象。68（我感觉我写得不好麻烦大家及时修改反馈啊）The following appeared in a memorandum from a companys marketing department.“Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe air filter six months ago, sales of our economy filter- and company profits

20、- have decreased significantly.The deluxe air filter sells for 50 percent more than the economy filter, but the economy filter lasts for only one month while the deluxe filter can be used for two months before it must be replaced. （这句话不知道有什么错误，不知道怎么反驳）To increase repeat sales of our economy filter a

21、nd maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe air filter and concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter.”论据一：Since our company started manufacturing and marketing a deluxe air filter six months ago, sales of our economy filter- and company profits- have decreased significa

22、ntly.反驳：非因果关系，生产和销售deluxe air filter与economy filter销售量以及公司的profits的下降之间并不一定是必然的因果关系，可能在此之前公司的sales of economy filter and company profits已经处于下降的阶段，故不能将decrease归因于生产和销售deluxe air filter。此外，影响销售量和profits的因素有很多，除了营销策略（marketing strategy）之外，也可能是由于整个行业的发展状况、经济环境（economic condition）等其他因素的作用。作者也没有告诉我们下降的具体程

23、度。结论一：To increase repeat sales of our economy filter and maximize profits, we should discontinue the deluxe air filter and concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter.反驳：这家公司的marketing department的目标是提高economy filter的重复销售（repeat sales）和最大化公司的利润，为达到这样的目标，采取两个措施，第一个是停止deluxe air filte

24、r的业务，第二个是focus their advertising on the economy filter。这里面隐藏着作者的一个逻辑错误，作者认为maximize profits与economy filter的销售有直接的关系，然而根据文章有限的信息，我们知道deluxe air filter虽然贵，但耐用，与economy filter各有优缺点（The deluxe air filter sells for 50 percent more than the economy filter, but the economy filter lasts for only one month w

25、hile the deluxe filter can be used for two months before it must be replaced.），我们没有理由拒绝deluxe air filter或许能够更好地maximize profits这样一个观点，因为或者是由于这家公司对于deluxe air filter的marketing做得不好而导致的销售业绩的不理想，并不由于产品本身，而文章没有提供给我们关于这方面的更加详细的信息。因而，完全discontinue the deluxe air filter不一定是一个好的strategy，多样化的产品加上更加适合市场的营销策略，或

26、许能够更好地实现maximize profits的目标。另外，即使集中化（centralizaion？正确的英文表达是什么来着？原谅我不是商科滴）的销售策略的确是best choice，concentrate all our advertising efforts on the economy filter这样一个advertising strategy也不见得是好的，对于一家公司来说，公司的reputation和image同样重要，也同样需要advertisement对其进行宣传，将所有advertising efforts集中于一个产品是不明智的（unwise/unreasonable）。

27、69The following appeared in a memorandum from a president of a company that makes shampoo.“A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects. Furthermore, we have received no

28、 complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.”观点一：A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical

29、 compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects.反驳：作者认为the study about HR2的样本容量不够大，因此拒绝接受研究的成果，然而事实上如果抽样方法、研究方法和具体的操作都是科学合理的，500的样本容量并不会太小，研究成果也能够在一定程度上说明问题。（reveal the truth to some degree）。论据一：Furthermore, we have received

30、no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do.反驳：作者说during the past year（在过去的一年里），公司并没有收到顾客的complaints，然而如果研究的结论属实，那么只有a prolonged use of the shampoo contained HR2才会引起hair loss，一年的use time究竟能否归入a prolonged us

31、e的范畴有待商榷。并且，在过去的一年里没有收到complaints不能说明该公司收到的complains很少，更不能证明其产品质量非常好，有可能在更长的销售史中，该公司收到的complains远多于average。此外，competitors的行为（behavior）不能够成为决定本公司行为的理由。We cant break the rules of our society just because other people do so.或许别的公司添加more HR2的行为已经造成了serious consequences，damage the health of customs了。观点二：

32、Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative. 反驳：作者根据上文陈述的理由得出这样的结论，由于上文的观点和论据都不够有说服力，可以说the basic assumption of this conclusion is irrational，这个结论自然缺乏可信度。70The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.（专卖店，百货公司）“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their products increased during this same period.（我不知道