数学建模美赛F题论文设计.docx

1、数学建模美赛F题论文设计For office use onlyT1_T2_T3_T4_Team Control Number49365Problem ChosenFFor office use onlyF1_F2_F3_F4_2016 MCM/ICMSummary Sheet(Your teams summary should be included as the first page of your electronic submission.) Type a summary of your results on this page. Do not includethe name of yo

2、ur school, advisor, or team members on this page.SummaryOur analysis and targets: In essence, this problem is kind of a case of maximum flow and minimum consumption with multiple sources and targets. “Multiple sources refers to different original countries of refugees involved in the case, while “mu

3、ltiple targets refers to different target countries where refugees arrive. Its our aim to rationalize the flows of refugees and to optimize the target country for each refugee, i.e. to optimize the choice of transmitting routes and the allocation of available resources with various condition factors

4、.Thegeneral idea and method: Set an indicator which consists of different parts of different factors.The indicator is designed to reflect the severity of both transportation and resources consumption. Every sub-factor should inflect the gap between theoretical value and actual conditions. For the ac

5、tual conditions, we can get enough data to describe or estimate it. As for the theoretical value,we introduce the advanced Dijkstra algorithm inspired by Edmond-Karp algorithm. Besides, we proposed the conceptions: weighting factor matrix, resources factor matrix, a series sub factor matrices which

6、is designed to describe the effect caused by different factors. The problem is quite similar to the model of water supply system. So we use the similar defining method to tackle the problems. Main results and conclusions: The model works well under dynamic conditions and the results fit the real sit

7、uation well, while the factor of politics and the factor of adjustments can be changed thus it is able to assess the cascading effects. It is helpful when the population of refugees grows rapidly and is able to make prediction of the maximum capacity of European mainland to consume the flow of refug

8、ees.Key points:Maximum flow and minimum expense/Water supply network modelDijkstra algorithmUnstoppable Refugees1 Introduction 1.1BackgroundAs a result of major political and social unrest and warfare, a massive surge of refugees emigrating from the Middle East to European countries. With hundreds o

9、f thousands of refugees moving across Europe and more arriving each day, much attention has been given to refugee integration policies and practices in many countries and regions. The challenges brought by the refugees must be managed carefully through effective policies.1.2An Over View of Tasks1)Me

10、trics of refugee crises. Develop a set of measures and parameters to for the refugee crises assessment.2)Flow of refugees. Create a model of optimal refugee movement that would incorporate projected flows of refugees across six travel routes with consideration of several important factors, like tran

11、sportations/accessibility,safety and countries capacities. Determine the number of refugees and the rate of points of entry. Justify the new elements added in the model and analyze the sensitivity.3)Dynamics of the crisis. Refine the model to adapt the demand of changing environmental factors. Here

12、we have to take the cascade effect of the resource consumption into consideration. Whats more, a plan should be given to allocate the resource properly and rank the priority of different kind of resources. Analyze the effects of NGOs and the new destinations for refugees.4)Policy to support refugee

13、model. We are asked to write a report on our model and propose a set of policies that will support the optimal pattern. Consider and prioritize the health and safety of refugees and local populations. Take the laws and cultural constraints and role of NGOS into consideration.5)Exogenous events. Anal

14、yze the exogenous events influence on the situation parameters and the cascading effect of the refugee flows. How your plan is designed to be resilient to these events?6)Scalability. Discuss the Scalability of your model when your model is applied for a much larger scale1.3Our General Analysis and W

15、ork1.3.1 Analysis:The index for the crisis assessment should be posed of two parts: 1) The burden of the refugee transition for the country on the path 2) The burden of the resource consumption for countries with refugeesEach part above should indicate the difference between ideal situations and practical ones.The practical situation can be known or be estimated from statistic data, so our focus is the theoretic or ideal refugee flow pattern.The essence of this problem is kind of a case of maximum flow(profit) and minimum consu