数学建模美赛F题论文设计.docx

数学建模美赛F题论文设计.docx

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数学建模美赛F题论文设计

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49365

ProblemChosen

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2016

MCM/ICM

SummarySheet

（Yourteam'ssummaryshouldbeincludedasthefirstpageofyourelectronicsubmission.）

Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotinclude

thenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.

Summary

Ouranalysisandtargets:

Inessence,thisproblemiskindofacaseofmaximumflowandminimumconsumptionwithmultiplesourcesandtargets.“Multiplesources〞referstodifferentoriginalcountriesofrefugeesinvolvedinthecase,while“multipletargets〞referstodifferenttargetcountrieswhererefugeesarrive.It’souraimtorationalizetheflowsofrefugeesandtooptimizethetargetcountryforeachrefugee,i.e.tooptimizethechoiceoftransmittingroutesandtheallocationofavailableresourceswithvariousconditionfactors.

Thegeneralideaandmethod:

Setanindicatorwhichconsistsofdifferentpartsofdifferentfactors.Theindicatorisdesignedtoreflecttheseverityofbothtransportationandresourcesconsumption.Everysub-factorshouldinflectthegapbetweentheoreticalvalueandactualconditions.Fortheactualconditions,wecangetenoughdatatodescribeorestimateit.Asforthetheoreticalvalue,weintroducetheadvancedDijkstraalgorithminspiredbyEdmond-Karpalgorithm.Besides,weproposedtheconceptions:

weightingfactormatrix,resourcesfactormatrix,aseriessubfactormatriceswhichisdesignedtodescribetheeffectcausedbydifferentfactors.Theproblemisquitesimilartothemodelofwatersupplysystem.Soweusethesimilardefiningmethodtotackletheproblems.

Mainresultsandconclusions:

Themodelworkswellunderdynamicconditionsandtheresultsfittherealsituationwell,whilethefactorofpoliticsandthefactorofadjustmentscanbechangedthusitisabletoassessthecascadingeffects.ItishelpfulwhenthepopulationofrefugeesgrowsrapidlyandisabletomakepredictionofthemaximumcapacityofEuropeanmainlandtoconsumetheflowofrefugees.

Keypoints:

Maximumflowandminimumexpense/Watersupplynetworkmodel

Dijkstraalgorithm

UnstoppableRefugees

1Introduction

1.1Background

Asaresultofmajorpoliticalandsocialunrestandwarfare,amassivesurgeofrefugeesemigratingfromtheMiddleEasttoEuropeancountries.WithhundredsofthousandsofrefugeesmovingacrossEuropeandmorearrivingeachday,muchattentionhasbeengiventorefugeeintegrationpoliciesandpracticesinmanycountriesandregions.Thechallengesbroughtbytherefugeesmustbemanagedcarefullythrougheffectivepolicies.

1.2AnOverViewofTasks

1）Metricsofrefugeecrises.Developasetofmeasuresandparameterstofortherefugeecrisesassessment.

2）Flowofrefugees.Createamodelofoptimalrefugeemovementthatwouldincorporateprojectedflowsofrefugeesacrosssixtravelrouteswithconsiderationofseveralimportantfactors,liketransportations/accessibility,safetyandcountriescapacities.Determinethenumberofrefugeesandtherateofpointsofentry.Justifythenewelementsaddedinthemodelandanalyzethesensitivity.

3）Dynamicsofthecrisis.Refinethemodeltoadaptthedemandofchangingenvironmentalfactors.Herewehavetotakethecascadeeffectoftheresourceconsumptionintoconsideration.What’smore,aplanshouldbegiventoallocatetheresourceproperlyandrankthepriorityofdifferentkindofresources.AnalyzetheeffectsofNGOsandthenewdestinationsforrefugees.

4）Policytosupportrefugeemodel.Weareaskedtowriteareportonourmodelandproposeasetofpoliciesthatwillsupporttheoptimalpattern.Considerandprioritizethehealthandsafetyofrefugeesandlocalpopulations.TakethelawsandculturalconstraintsandroleofNGOSintoconsideration.

5）Exogenousevents.Analyzetheexogenousevents’influenceonthesituationparametersandthecascadingeffectoftherefugeeflows.Howyourplanisdesignedtoberesilienttotheseevents?

6）Scalability.DiscusstheScalabilityofyourmodelwhenyourmodelisappliedforamuchlargerscale

1.3OurGeneralAnalysisandWork

1.3.1Analysis:

Theindexforthecrisisassessmentshouldbeposedoftwoparts:

1）Theburdenoftherefugeetransitionforthecountryonthepath

2）Theburdenoftheresourceconsumptionforcountrieswithrefugees

Eachpartaboveshouldindicatethedifferencebetweenidealsituationsandpracticalones.

Thepracticalsituationcanbeknownorbeestimatedfromstatisticdata,soourfocusisthetheoreticoridealrefugeeflowpattern.

Theessenceofthisproblemiskindofacaseofmaximumflow（profit）andminimumconsu