外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议精品.docx

1、外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议精品中文3310字原 文:An analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in Brazil：challenges and recommendations 出 处： International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 作 者： Filipe Sobral,Alketa Peci,Gustavo Souza AbstractPurpose The main purpose of this study is to present an

2、analysis of the dynamics of the tourism market in South America and, more specifically, in Brazil, by measuring and analyzing the growth in tourists arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002.Design/methodology/approach This study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the nu

3、mber of tourists into various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.Findings Despite the fact that Brazil is the leading tourist destination in South America, the study shows that Brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in Sout

4、h America. The study also revealed the impact of 9/11 and Argentinas crises and the growing participation of the European tourist in Brazil.Originality/value Despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offer

5、ing Brazilian policy-makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country.Keywords :Tourism, Public policy, Brazil, South AmericaIntroductionTourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy.

6、 Ever since the 1950s when international travel became accessible to the public in general, the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. Estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. The trends for the future of the tourism ind

7、ustry indicate that by 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (World Tourism Organization, 2006). According to World Travel and Tourism Council it is expected that the tourism will contribute 3.6 percent to global GDP in 2006 (World Travel and Tourism

8、Council, 2006). In view of the importance of the tourism sector, this study seeks to contribute with another potentially useful technical analysis tool for evaluating the sector. The objective is to provide policy makers in Brazil with a systematic approach towards managing their tourism efforts and

9、 activities. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for public policies in the area of tourism based on the discussion of results of the model integrated with the results of other studies and research.The tourism industry in South AmericaIn terms of economic impact, tourism is a rece

10、nt phenomenon in South America. With the exception of the 1960-1970 decade, the growth of tourism on the American continent (North, Central and South America) was always below the world average(World Tourism Organization, 2005). Factors such as the great distance from the major tourist-generating ma

11、rkets, the timidity of the regional economies, as well as the prolonged economic recessions, had a negative impact on the development of regional and intra-regional tourism (Santana, 2000). Only in the 1990s South America emerged as a potential tourism destination, with Brazil, Argentina and Chile a

12、s the main players in the region. Factors like the transition to democracy, the consolidation of economic blocks, the growth of commerce with the major world markets and the improvement of basic public services, contributed positively to the development of tourism in the region. In conjunction with

13、this the opening up of the markets and massive investments in infrastructure facilitated the flow of tourism to traditional and non-traditional destinations in South America(Gouvea, 2004; Santana, 2000).Even though the growth in the Americas has followed the worldwide trend, tourism has an unrealize

14、d growth potential in the majority of South American countries. Only recently some countries have adopted tourism as a strategic alternative. In accordance with projections of the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) for 2006, it is expected that US$163,362 billion will be generated in economic a

15、ctivity (total demand)by the tourism industry. An impact of 7.2 percent on the GDP of Latin American countries is expected, as well as the generation of 12.1 million jobs, namely 6.9 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006).The tourism industry in BrazilWith respect to Brazil, i

16、t is possible to affirm that tourism is a relatively important economic activity, with great future growth potential. The contribution to GDP of the tourism industry in Brazil is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2006 (US$25.3 billion),increasing in nominal terms to US$ 36 billion (2.7 percent of GDP) by

17、 2016 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). The importance of the tourism sector in Brazil becomes more apparent when one evaluates its social impact, especially in generating jobs. Estimates of the Ministry of Labor and Employment reveal that over the 2003/2005 three-year period, the economic a

18、ctivity of tourism generated 560,000 new jobs (Embratur, 2006). For 2006, estimates of the total number of job positions generated by the tourism industry are 5.5 million, in other words 6.4 percent of the job total. By 2016, the total should reach approximately 9 million job positions, correspondin

19、g to 6.6 percent of the total (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2006). Despite the fact that Brazil is the largest Latin American country with incomparable cultural and ecological exuberance and diversity, both the public and private sectors have underestimated tourism. The analysis of historical d

20、ata on tourism in Brazil shows that it was only in the middle of the 1990s that the tourism industry really took off. The year 2000 saw the highest number ever recorded in terms of tourist arrivals in the country with 5.3 million international arrivals. For Brazil, Argentina is the main source of in

21、coming tourists with 922,484 tourists,followed by the USA (705,997), Portugal (336,988), Uruguay (309,732), Germany(294,989), Italy (276,563) and France (224,160) (Embratur, 2005a, b). Due to the economic crisis that Argentina suffered in 2002, its participation in the influx of tourists to Brazil f

22、ell from 32.8 percent in 2000 to 19.24 percent in 2004. However, the country is still in top place among the main tourist groupings entering Brazil. With respect to the average expense per capita/day, the average spending by international tourists was US$87.99 and the average length of stay was 13.5

23、 days (Embratur, 2005a, b).Research conducted into the image of the country abroad confirms the fact that the attraction of Brazil as a tourist destination is based on its natural beauty and exoticism,though the negative perceptions regarding social and economic conditions of the country, as well as

24、 the lack of security, coexist with this positive image. However,research indicated that the respondents do not have a good perception regarding the social and economic conditions of the country and, furthermore, are worried about security issues when visiting the country (Rezende-Parker et al., 200

25、3).The studyThis study uses a version of the shift-share technique, developed by Esteban-Marquillas (1972), to examine the characteristics and dynamics of the tourism industry in South America. The purpose is to measure and analyze the growth in tourists arrivals to South America (Argentina, Bolivia

26、, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay e Venezuela) from three different regions of the world (Europe, Americas and residual region which includes Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South Pacific countries) between 1998 and 2002. The shift-share technique decomposes the growth of

27、the number of tourists into various components that can explain its behavior, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.The selected countries in South America were chosen to compose the benchmark because they share some significant similarities in terms of potential at

28、tractiveness and image. Thus, each countrys performance can be compared to the collective performance of the benchmark. The data for tourist arrivals are compiled from the Statistical Yearbook, published by the Statistical Division of the United Nations Department of Economical and Social Affairs (U

29、nited Nations, 2005).ResultsThe main results of the study are the following:Brazil is the country that receives the highest number of international tourists in South America (over 30 percent), followed by Argentina (approximately 20 percent), Uruguay (11 percent) and Chile (11 percent).As for the to

30、urist-generating countries to South America, the Americas (over 70 percent) and Europe (23 percent) continue to be the leading tourist exporters.Between 1998 and 2002 there was a marked reduction in the number of international tourists, representing a drop of over 18 percent in the number of tourist

31、 arrivals to South America, mainly because the 9/11 and the political and economic instability of some of the countries in the region, especially Argentina,Colombia and Venezuela.Despite the global decrease of incoming tourists to South America, the number of European tourists increased during the p

32、eriod under consideration (5 percent).With respect to Brazil, its global performance fell well below expectations and it lost market share, losing more than a 1 million tourists (221.5 percent).The foregoing analysis made it clear that this reduction was due to a weak performance in the Americas, wh

33、ich was partly offset by a good performance from Europe.The results indicate that the number of European tourists visiting Brazil increased by 235,503 (an increase of more than 20 percent). According to the analysis, Brazil enjoys a competitive advantage in attracting European tourist and it is specialized in this re