外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议精品.docx
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外文翻译巴西旅游业的动态分析挑战和建议精品
中文3310字
原文:
AnanalysisofthedynamicsofthetourismindustryinBrazil:
challengesandrecommendations
出处:
InternationalJournalofContemporaryHospitalityManagement
作者:
FilipeSobral,AlketaPeci,GustavoSouza
Abstract
Purpose–ThemainpurposeofthisstudyistopresentananalysisofthedynamicsofthetourismmarketinSouthAmericaand,morespecifically,inBrazil,bymeasuringandanalyzingthegrowthintourists’arrivalstotheregionbetween1998and2002.
Design/methodology/approach–Thisstudyusestheshift-sharetechniquethatdecomposesthegrowthofthenumberoftouristsintovariouscomponents,enablingin-depthdiagnosisofthedynamicsofthesectorintheperiod.
Findings–DespitethefactthatBrazilistheleadingtouristdestinationinSouthAmerica,thestudyshowsthatBrazilhasbeenlosinggroundinrelationtosomeofitsneighborsinSouthAmerica.Thestudyalsorevealedtheimpactof9/11andArgentina’scrisesandthegrowingparticipationoftheEuropeantouristinBrazil.
Originality/value–Despitesomelimitations,thistechniquehastheadvantageoffocusingonaregionscarcelystudiedinmainstreamtourismresearchesandofferingBrazilianpolicy-makersanewmethodologysuchthattheymaytakeadvantageofemergingopportunitiesandcreatecompetitiveadvantagesforthecountry.
Keywords:
Tourism,Publicpolicy,Brazil,SouthAmerica
Introduction
Tourismisasectorexperiencingmajorgrowthintermsoftheglobaleconomy.Eversincethe1950swheninternationaltravelbecameaccessibletothepublicingeneral,thenumberoftouristshasbeengrowingatanaveragerateof6.8percentperyear.Estimatesarethatin2005thenumberofincomingtouriststotaled808million.Thetrendsforthefutureofthetourismindustryindicatethatby2020thenumberofincominginternationaltouristswillbeintheorderof1.6billion(WorldTourismOrganization,2006).AccordingtoWorldTravelandTourismCouncilitisexpectedthatthetourismwillcontribute3.6percenttoglobalGDPin2006(WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006).
Inviewoftheimportanceofthetourismsector,thisstudyseekstocontributewithanotherpotentiallyusefultechnicalanalysistoolforevaluatingthesector.TheobjectiveistoprovidepolicymakersinBrazilwithasystematicapproachtowardsmanagingtheirtourismeffortsandactivities.Thearticleconcludeswithaseriesofrecommendationsforpublicpoliciesintheareaoftourismbasedonthediscussionofresultsofthemodelintegratedwiththeresultsofotherstudiesandresearch.
ThetourismindustryinSouthAmerica
Intermsofeconomicimpact,tourismisarecentphenomenoninSouthAmerica.Withtheexceptionofthe1960-1970decade,thegrowthoftourismontheAmericancontinent(North,CentralandSouthAmerica)wasalwaysbelowtheworldaverage(WorldTourismOrganization,2005).Factorssuchasthegreatdistancefromthemajortourist-generatingmarkets,thetimidityoftheregionaleconomies,aswellastheprolongedeconomicrecessions,hadanegativeimpactonthedevelopmentofregionalandintra-regionaltourism(Santana,2000).
Onlyinthe1990sSouthAmericaemergedasapotentialtourismdestination,withBrazil,ArgentinaandChileasthemainplayersintheregion.Factorslikethetransitiontodemocracy,theconsolidationofeconomicblocks,thegrowthofcommercewiththemajorworldmarketsandtheimprovementofbasicpublicservices,contributedpositivelytothedevelopmentoftourismintheregion.Inconjunctionwiththistheopeningupofthemarketsandmassiveinvestmentsininfrastructurefacilitatedtheflowoftourismtotraditionalandnon-traditionaldestinationsinSouthAmerica(Gouveˆa,2004;Santana,2000).
EventhoughthegrowthintheAmericashasfollowedtheworldwidetrend,tourismhasanunrealizedgrowthpotentialinthemajorityofSouthAmericancountries.Onlyrecentlysomecountrieshaveadoptedtourismasastrategicalternative.InaccordancewithprojectionsoftheWorldTravelandTourismCouncil(WTTC)for2006,itisexpectedthatUS$163,362billionwillbegeneratedineconomicactivity(totaldemand)bythetourismindustry.Animpactof7.2percentontheGDPofLatinAmericancountriesisexpected,aswellasthegenerationof12.1millionjobs,namely6.9percentofthetotal(WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006).
ThetourismindustryinBrazil
WithrespecttoBrazil,itispossibletoaffirmthattourismisarelativelyimportanteconomicactivity,withgreatfuturegrowthpotential.ThecontributiontoGDPofthetourismindustryinBrazilisestimatedat2.8percentfor2006(US$25.3billion),increasinginnominaltermstoUS$36billion(2.7percentofGDP)by2016(WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006).TheimportanceofthetourismsectorinBrazilbecomesmoreapparentwhenoneevaluatesitssocialimpact,especiallyingeneratingjobs.EstimatesoftheMinistryofLaborandEmploymentrevealthatoverthe2003/2005three-yearperiod,theeconomicactivityoftourismgenerated560,000newjobs(Embratur,2006).For2006,estimatesofthetotalnumberofjobpositionsgeneratedbythetourismindustryare5.5million,inotherwords6.4percentofthejobtotal.By2016,thetotalshouldreachapproximately9millionjobpositions,correspondingto6.6percentofthetotal(WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,2006).
DespitethefactthatBrazilisthelargestLatinAmericancountrywithincomparableculturalandecologicalexuberanceanddiversity,boththepublicandprivatesectorshaveunderestimatedtourism.TheanalysisofhistoricaldataontourisminBrazilshowsthatitwasonlyinthemiddleofthe1990sthatthetourismindustryreallytookoff.Theyear2000sawthehighestnumbereverrecordedintermsoftouristarrivalsinthecountrywith5.3millioninternationalarrivals.
ForBrazil,Argentinaisthemainsourceofincomingtouristswith922,484tourists,followedbytheUSA(705,997),Portugal(336,988),Uruguay(309,732),Germany(294,989),Italy(276,563)andFrance(224,160)(Embratur,2005a,b).DuetotheeconomiccrisisthatArgentinasufferedin2002,itsparticipationintheinfluxoftouriststoBrazilfellfrom32.8percentin2000to19.24percentin2004.However,thecountryisstillintopplaceamongthemaintouristgroupingsenteringBrazil.Withrespecttotheaverageexpensepercapita/day,theaveragespendingbyinternationaltouristswasUS$87.99andtheaveragelengthofstaywas13.5days(Embratur,2005a,b).
ResearchconductedintotheimageofthecountryabroadconfirmsthefactthattheattractionofBrazilasatouristdestinationisbasedonitsnaturalbeautyandexoticism,thoughthenegativeperceptionsregardingsocialandeconomicconditionsofthecountry,aswellasthelackofsecurity,coexistwiththispositiveimage.However,researchindicatedthattherespondentsdonothaveagoodperceptionregardingthesocialandeconomicconditionsofthecountryand,furthermore,areworriedaboutsecurityissueswhenvisitingthecountry(Rezende-Parkeretal.,2003).
Thestudy
Thisstudyusesaversionoftheshift-sharetechnique,developedbyEsteban-Marquillas(1972),toexaminethecharacteristicsanddynamicsofthetourismindustryinSouthAmerica.ThepurposeistomeasureandanalyzethegrowthintouristsarrivalstoSouthAmerica(Argentina,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,Paraguay,Peru,UruguayeVenezuela)fromthreedifferentregionsoftheworld(Europe,AmericasandresidualregionwhichincludesAsia,Africa,theMiddleEastandSouthPacificcountries)between1998and2002.Theshift-sharetechniquedecomposesthegrowthofthenumberoftouristsintovariouscomponentsthatcanexplainitsbehavior,enablingin-depthdiagnosisofthedynamicsofthesectorintheperiod.
TheselectedcountriesinSouthAmericawerechosentocomposethebenchmarkbecausetheysharesomesignificantsimilaritiesintermsofpotentialattractivenessandimage.Thus,eachcountry’sperformancecanbecomparedtothecollectiveperformanceofthebenchmark.ThedatafortouristarrivalsarecompiledfromtheStatisticalYearbook,publishedbytheStatisticalDivisionoftheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicalandSocialAffairs(UnitedNations,2005).
Results
Themainresultsofthestudyarethefollowing:
BrazilisthecountrythatreceivesthehighestnumberofinternationaltouristsinSouthAmerica(over30percent),followedbyArgentina(approximately20percent),Uruguay(11percent)andChile(11percent).
Asforthetourist-generatingcountriestoSouthAmerica,theAmericas(over70percent)andEurope(23percent)continuetobetheleadingtouristexporters.
Between1998and2002therewasamarkedreductioninthenumberofinternationaltourists,representingadropofover18percentinthenumberoftouristarrivalstoSouthAmerica,mainlybecausethe9/11andthepoliticalandeconomicinstabilityofsomeofthecountriesintheregion,especiallyArgentina,ColombiaandVenezuela.
DespitetheglobaldecreaseofincomingtouriststoSouthAmerica,thenumberofEuropeantouristsincreasedduringtheperiodunderconsideration(5percent).
WithrespecttoBrazil,itsglobalperformancefellwellbelowexpectationsanditlostmarketshare,losingmorethana1milliontourists(221.5percent).
TheforegoinganalysismadeitclearthatthisreductionwasduetoaweakperformanceintheAmericas,whichwaspartlyoffsetbyagoodperformancefromEurope.
TheresultsindicatethatthenumberofEuropeantouristsvisitingBrazilincreasedby235,503(anincreaseofmorethan20percent).Accordingtotheanalysis,BrazilenjoysacompetitiveadvantageinattractingEuropeantouristanditisspecializedinthisre