中日开战美国咋办.docx

1、中日开战美国咋办中日开战美国咋办？美国网友评论吵翻天了（图）2014-7-16 9:32:59编辑：参考消息来源：互联网If China and Japan Went to War: What Would America do?如果中日开战，美国会怎么做？Harry J. KazianisJune 21, 2014Over the last several months China has instituted dailynon-naval maritime patrols around the hotly disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.Beijing is

2、even sending fully-fledged naval assets within the islands 12 mileexclusion zone while its aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, exercised only 50 miles awayfrom the islands back in February truly the end of Beijings small-stick diplomatic strategy.过去几个月以来，围绕高度争议的尖阁/钓鱼岛，中国已经制定了日常非海军的海上巡逻。北京甚至派遣了羽翼丰满的海军抵达钓

3、鱼岛的12海里禁区。而且，早在2月，中国航母辽宁舰行驶到了离该岛只有50英里的地方。真正结束北京的小棍外交战略。资料图：中国海军辽宁号航母战斗群资料图：美国海军双航母编队But on 1 March the plot thickens. Two Chinese SU-27fighters come within 25 feet of a Japanese P-3 Orion surveillance plane just 10miles west of the Senkakus (sound familiar?). The Japanese pilot gets nervous. A slig

4、httweak at the controls and the Japanese plane collides with one of the Chinesefighters. Both aircraft crash into the ocean, with no survivors.Naturally each side blames the other. Beijing accuses theJapanese pilots of violating Chinese sovereign airspace and violating its Air Defense Identification

5、 Zone, or ADIZ. Japan claims theChinese pilots acted recklessly, flying so close. The media in both countriesfan the flames of nationalism. Just 72 hours later, a group of twenty Chinesenationals land on one of the disputed islands under the cover of darkness.Rumors swirl that Beijing knew of the vo

6、yage but did nothing to stop it. A Japanesenaval task force carrying a small detachment of soldiers is dispatched. Theirgoal: remove the only residents of the disputed five-island chain.但3月1日情况变得更复杂了。两架中国SU-27战斗机出现在了日本P-3猎户座侦察机的25英尺内，尖阁列岛（听起来熟悉吗？）以西仅10英里。日本飞行员紧张了。轻微调整控制后，这架侦察机与一架中国战斗机相撞。二者都坠入了海里，没有幸

7、存者。自然，双方都互相指责对方。北京指责日本飞行员侵犯了中国的领空以及防空识别区。日本则声称中国飞行员不顾一切地飞得如此近。两国媒体煽动着民族主义的火焰。仅在72小时后，一个20位中国公民的团体在夜幕的掩护下，登上了钓鱼岛。谣传北京知道了这次航行，但没有阻止它。日本海军特遣队派遣了一小分队士兵。他们的目标是：拿下争议的五个岛屿链的唯一居民。If China and Japan Went to War: What Would America do?如果中日开战，美国会怎么做？Harry J. KazianisJune 21, 2014Over the last several months Ch

8、ina has instituted dailynon-naval maritime patrols around the hotly disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.Beijing is even sending fully-fledged naval assets within the islands 12 mileexclusion zone while its aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, exercised only 50 miles awayfrom the islands back in February trul

9、y the end of Beijings small-stick diplomatic strategy.过去几个月以来，围绕高度争议的尖阁/钓鱼岛，中国已经制定了日常非海军的海上巡逻。北京甚至派遣了羽翼丰满的海军抵达钓鱼岛的12海里禁区。而且，早在2月，中国航母辽宁舰行驶到了离该岛只有50英里的地方。真正结束北京的小棍外交战略。资料图：中国海军辽宁号航母战斗群资料图：美国海军双航母编队But on 1 March the plot thickens. Two Chinese SU-27fighters come within 25 feet of a Japanese P-3 Orion

10、surveillance plane just 10miles west of the Senkakus (sound familiar?). The Japanese pilot gets nervous. A slighttweak at the controls and the Japanese plane collides with one of the Chinesefighters. Both aircraft crash into the ocean, with no survivors.Naturally each side blames the other. Beijing

11、accuses theJapanese pilots of violating Chinese sovereign airspace and violating its Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ. Japan claims theChinese pilots acted recklessly, flying so close. The media in both countriesfan the flames of nationalism. Just 72 hours later, a group of twenty Chinesenat

12、ionals land on one of the disputed islands under the cover of darkness.Rumors swirl that Beijing knew of the voyage but did nothing to stop it. A Japanesenaval task force carrying a small detachment of soldiers is dispatched. Theirgoal: remove the only residents of the disputed five-island chain.但3月

13、1日情况变得更复杂了。两架中国SU-27战斗机出现在了日本P-3猎户座侦察机的25英尺内，尖阁列岛（听起来熟悉吗？）以西仅10英里。日本飞行员紧张了。轻微调整控制后，这架侦察机与一架中国战斗机相撞。二者都坠入了海里，没有幸存者。自然，双方都互相指责对方。北京指责日本飞行员侵犯了中国的领空以及防空识别区。日本则声称中国飞行员不顾一切地飞得如此近。两国媒体煽动着民族主义的火焰。仅在72小时后，一个20位中国公民的团体在夜幕的掩护下，登上了钓鱼岛。谣传北京知道了这次航行，但没有阻止它。日本海军特遣队派遣了一小分队士兵。他们的目标是：拿下争议的五个岛屿链的唯一居民。As the example abo

14、ve shows, a Sino-Japanese conflict couldstart from the most unlikely scenario, where one incident builds on another andboth sides share the blame. What would President Obama do? Considering hisrecent speech at West Point, which favors tired idealism over substance anddisplayed what David Rothkopf ca

15、lled a rehash of Obamas Walmart foreignpolicy, can anyone really know for sure?如上例所示，中日冲突会从最不可能的情况下开始，一个事件贯穿于另一个事件，双方都有责任。奥巴马总统会怎么做？鉴于他最近在西点军校的演讲，充斥着陈腐的理想主义，没有什么实质内容，是戴维罗特科普夫所谓的奥巴马“沃尔玛式外交政策”的老调重弹，谁能完全知道？This drives to the very heart of Americas rebalance toAsia and exposes a fatal flaw in its founda

16、tions. Would Obama make the case tothe American people that its men and women should give their lives to what manypundits would undoubtedly spin as a ploy to protect a bunch of rocks with afunny sounding name, rocks which most Americans could not even find on a map?Considering the Presidents limited

17、 political capital, with only two-and-a-halfyears left in office, would he make the case under less than clear-cutcircumstances for a conflict which many would say is not in US nationalinterests? To put the question differently: short of an unambiguous Chineseinvasion of the Senkakus, would he back

18、Japan unconditionally? Or more broadly:under what circumstances would America come to Asias rescue?资料图：中国空军歼11战斗机资料图：中国空军歼11战斗机这直指奥巴马亚洲再平衡的核心，暴露了其基础上的一个致命缺陷。奥巴马是否愿意向美国民众解释，为何美国人应该为了保护一堆名称可笑的岩石而牺牲生命，许多美国人甚至在地图上找不到这堆岩石？考虑到奥巴马有限的政治资本，在任时间只剩下两年半，他是否愿意解释为何要在形势并不明朗的情况下卷入一场许多人认为并不符合美国国家利益的冲突？换种方式来考虑这一问题：既然

19、中国没有明确入侵尖阁列岛，奥巴马会无条件地支持日本吗？或更广泛地说：在什么样的情况下，美国会到亚洲支援？Ominous questions, for sure. Maybe this is the reason PrimeMinister Abe reacted the way he did at the recent Shangri-LaDialogue. And maybe this is why Australians are considering a much bigger rolefor themselves or “A Larger Australia” in the regio

20、n as well as globally.While American intentions might be there, the will to act may not, even for atreaty ally.不祥的问题，肯定的。也许这就是安倍首相在最近香格里拉对话上如此反应的原因。也许这就是澳大利亚人正考虑在相关地区以及全球范围内发挥更大作用的原因。美国或许有某些意图， 却可能没有实施行动的意愿，即使是盟友。But lets back up for a moment. Say Obama did make the casefor intervention in the scena

21、rio I outlined above. How would the averageAmerican respond? If most Americans would not support US military action inSyria, would they support a war over the Senkakus, or the Second Thomas Shoal,or any other disputed island or reef in the Asia Pacific? Clearly, Americasnational interests are at sta

22、ke if the status quo is washed away in Asia. Butin an age of quick sound bites and rabid social media, can such interests bearticulated so that Americans would be prepared to die for the Senkakus, areef, or even a hard-to-articulate international order?暂且退后一步。如果奥巴马确实为在前文所述的情况下进行干涉找到了合理解释，普通美国民众的反应时？

23、任何大多数美国人不支持美国在叙利亚的军事行动，他们会支持因钓鱼岛、仁爱礁或亚太地区其他任何有争议的岛屿或暗礁而发动的战争吗？很显然，一旦亚洲的现状遭到破坏，美国的国家利益将处于危险中国。但在如今这个语言信息和社交媒体盛行的年代，能否对上述利益加以言辞修饰，以至于让美国人愿意为钓鱼岛、为某块暗礁，甚至为某种语焉不详的国际秩序舍身赴死呢？资料图：中国空军歼11战斗机资料图：中国空军歼11战斗机As much as I believe in my heart of hearts that Americamust rebalance its foreign policy towards Asia an

24、d that Washington shouldcertainly come to the aid of its allies, absent the loss of American lives oran outright invasion of a treaty ally it is hard to see a scenario in the nearfuture where an American president is able to present successfully such avision.就像我深信，美国必须再平衡其对亚洲的外交政策，华盛顿应该对其盟友提供援助，但是要在

25、不牺牲美国人的生命或其条约盟友没有直接入侵的情况下。在不久的将来，很那看到某位美国总统提出这样的观点。To be clear, none of this is to cast a vote in favor ofAmerica abandoning its Asian allies in any way, shape or form. I stronglybelieve the present international order as constructed in the Asia Pacific andwider Indo-Pacific is worth fighting for. A

26、merican prosperity and security isbased on an international order created by Washington and its allies afterWorld War II. If and when it were to be overthrown, Americans would findthemselves in a less secure, less stable international environment.需要说明的是，这并非支持美国以任何方式或任何形式放弃亚洲盟友。我坚信，值得为维护亚太地区和范围更广的印度洋

27、-太平洋地区的当前国际秩序而战。美国的繁荣和安全是基于华盛顿及其盟友二战后建立的国际秩序。一旦它被推翻了，美国人会发现自己处于不那么安全和稳定的国际环境中。However, Washingtons Asia Pacific allies must understandthe limitations of Americas rebalance to the region. Without such an understanding,Asia might be caught off guard in a crisis.然而，华盛顿的亚太盟友必须明白，美国对该区域的再平衡有一些限制。如果不理解这一点

28、，亚洲可能会在危机时措手不及。Image: U.S. Navy Flickr.评论：Potarick ? a day agoIf Japan and China went to war and the U.S. attack China, then thatcould force China to call upon atomic energy. :-)如果中日开战并且美国攻击中国，此时“可能”迫使中国召唤原子能。资料图：中国空军歼11战斗机编队资料图：中国空军苏30MKK战斗轰炸机编队MTC ? 11 hours agoI guess America giving moral support

29、 and military intelligence to itallies (such as precisely where the Japanese, Vietnam or Filipino navies canfind their enemy in the ECS or SCS or western Pacific) would suffice. Just likeAmerica did to UK in 1981. American allies are sovereign countries. Theirnationals should risk their lives and de

30、vote themselves to secure their sovereignty.Japanese politicians should be fully aware of that, which explains why they arenow establishing their own small marines which they didnt have before. Nobodywill think (except mainland-Chinese media outlets) Vietnamese as weaklings.Filipinos are tough fight

31、ers (they have used up their military resources inMindanao, though) They can take care of themselves.我猜美国会给其盟友提供道义支持以及军事情报（例如日本越南菲律宾海军恰好在东海南海或西太平洋发现敌人），这样就足够了。就像日本1991年对应该做的那样。美国的盟友是主权国家。他们的公民应冒着生命危险致力于保护自己的主权。日本政治家应该充分意识到这些，这就解释了为什么现在正建设之前没有过的小型海军陆战队。没有人认为（除了中国大陆媒体）越南是懦夫。菲律宾人是勇猛的战士（尽管他们在棉兰老岛用尽了军事资源

32、）。他们能照顾自己。Rafiki Ji ? 9 hours agousa act like mafia boss, cares about the justic. Justis is that the diaoyubelongs to China美国像黑手党老大，关心正义。正义是钓鱼岛属于中国。Son Nguyen ? 4 hours agoTwo Chinese SU-27 fighters come within 25 feet of a Japanese P-3 Orionsurveillance plane just 10 miles west of the Senkakus (sound familiar?). TheJapanese pilot gets nervous. Why would the Japanese pilot gets nervous? Whatare you kidding? Dont underestimate Japans