童装市场调研报告.docx

1、童装市场调研报告2015市场调研报告 2015/9/19 Saturday儿童人口调研/儿童市场调研/消费者调研/电商市场调研/青少年装调研/孕妇装调研1. 儿童人口数量统计及预测1.1儿童人口综述国家统计局发布的2014国民经济和社会发展公报显示，截止2014年末，全国总人口136782万人，其中0-15岁的有23957万人，占总人口比例17.5%。自国家实施“二胎”政策以来，新生儿人口相比2013年增加47万人，从2015年开始，我国出生人口会呈现出跳跃式上升。根据国务院办公厅印发的人口发展“十一五”和2020年规划提出，到2020年人口控制在14.5亿左右。也就是比2014年多8000万

2、人左右。预计到2020年，0-15岁青少年人口将达到2.53亿左右。儿童人口的绝对值和占总人口比例也是我们需要关注的指标，河南，山东，广东，四川4省不仅人口基数大，而且儿童人口数量多，且占比最高，是未来最有潜力的儿童市场，经济发达地区如北京，上海，天津，儿童人口的占比很低，人口出生率低，未来市场竞争将更加激烈。儿童人口绝对值前20名的城市和儿童人口占比前20名的城市很有意思，这些城市经济没有东部地区发达，传统的生育观很强，养儿防老的思维观念深入人心，且养育成本不高，导致人口出生率很高，比如河南南阳，2014年末全市人口1000万，出生人口11万，出生率高达11%，远高于全国平均水平。综上所述，

3、我们初步得出如下结论：1. 儿童人口在政策引导下，出生率呈现一定的上升，但上升幅度仍不明朗，需要每年关注国家公布的出生率数据。2. 河南，山东，广东，四川是未来最有潜力的儿童产业市场，不仅具有高儿童基数，且具有高儿童密度。3. 其他有潜力的市场有河北，湖南，安徽，江苏等。4. 一线城市市场竞争惨烈，且儿童人口密度低，新生儿出生率低，预计未来对整个公司的毛利贡献不大。1.2各省市人口数据各省人口和儿童人口表（按人口数降序排列）省份人口0-14岁儿童人口比例广东10430176216.89%山东9561150715.77%河南9402197521.00%四川8042136516.97%江苏7866

4、102313.01%河北7185120916.83%湖南6568115717.62%安徽5950105817.77%湖北572479613.91%浙江547771913.13%广西460399921.71%云南459695320.73%江西445797521.88%辽宁443347910.81%黑龙江38313338.70%陕西373354914.71%福建364957115.63%山西357161117.10%贵州347587625.22%重庆288549016.98%吉林274632911.99%甘肃255846418.16%内蒙古247134814.10%上海23021998.63%新疆

5、218139918.31%北京19611698.60%天津12941279.80%海南86717320.00%香港7138612.00%宁夏63013521.46%青海56311820.92%西藏300103.27%澳门59712.01%各省人口和儿童人口表（按儿童人口降序排列）省份人口0-14岁儿童人口比例河南9402197521.00%广东10430176216.89%山东9561150715.77%四川8042136516.97%河北7185120916.83%湖南6568115717.62%安徽5950105817.77%江苏7866102313.01%广西460399921.71%江

6、西445797521.88%云南459695320.73%贵州347587625.22%湖北572479613.91%浙江547771913.13%山西357161117.10%福建364957115.63%陕西373354914.71%重庆288549016.98%辽宁443347910.81%甘肃255846418.16%新疆218139918.31%内蒙古247134814.10%黑龙江38313338.70%吉林274632911.99%上海23021998.63%海南86717320.00%北京19611698.60%宁夏63013521.46%天津12941279.80%青海563

7、11820.92%香港7138612.00%西藏300103.27%澳门59712.01%各省人口和儿童人口占比排序（降序）省份人口0-14岁儿童人口比例贵州347587625.22%江西445797521.88%广西460399921.71%宁夏63013521.46%河南9402197521.00%青海56311820.92%云南459695320.73%海南86717320.00%新疆218139918.31%甘肃255846418.16%安徽5950105817.77%湖南6568115717.62%山西357161117.10%重庆288549016.98%四川8042136516.

8、97%广东10430176216.89%河北7185120916.83%山东9561150715.77%福建364957115.63%陕西373354914.71%内蒙古247134814.10%湖北572479613.91%浙江547771913.13%江苏7866102313.01%澳门59712.01%香港7138612.00%吉林274632911.99%辽宁443347910.81%天津12941279.80%黑龙江38313338.70%上海23021998.63%北京19611698.60%西藏300103.27%儿童人口排名前20的城市城市省份人口0-14岁儿童人口比例重庆重庆

9、288549017%南阳河南102623523%周口河南89521324%赣州江西83720525%毕节贵州65420331%上海上海23021999%保定河北111919217%邯郸河北91719021%临沂山东100418218%阜阳安徽76017523%菏泽山东82917221%北京北京19611699%驻马店河南72316523%湛江广东69916423%商丘河南73615721%上饶江西65815624%石家庄河北101615515%徐州江苏85815418%成都四川140515411%邵阳湖南70715121%儿童人口占总人口排名前20的城市城市省份人口0-14岁儿童人口比例玉树青

10、海381232%毕节贵州65420331%钦州广西3088828%果洛青海18528%黔西南贵州2817828%铜仁贵州3098628%凉山州四川45312427%昭通云南52114027%固原宁夏1233327%贵港广西41211027%玉林广西54914627%喀什新疆39810526%和田新疆2015326%黄南青海26726%茂名广东58215026%临夏甘肃1954925%安顺贵州2305825%临高海南431125%黔东南贵州3488725%海南青海441125%直辖市和特区序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1北京1961.2168.78.60%2上海2301.91198

11、.568.63%3天津1293.82126.759.80%4重庆2884.62489.816.98%5香港71385.5612.00%6澳门58.637.0412.01%浙江序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1杭州880.299.1111.39%2宁波763.988.8811.69%3温州915.6130.5314.31%4绍兴494.362.7612.78%5台州600.592.2815.46%6嘉兴454.453.6911.93%7金华539.976.2914.23%8湖州290.533.7611.67%9衢州21234.316.16%10丽水211.735.8416.93%11

12、舟山11411.4310.19%总数5477718.8713.13%广东序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1广州1270.08145.6311.47%2深圳1035.79101.889.84%3珠海156.0221.0613.50%4东莞822.0267.88.25%5佛山719.4385.2611.85%6中山312.0936.3811.66%7惠州459.780.9217.60%8汕头539.1120.1322.29%9江门444.8863.1514.20%10茂名581.77149.9125.77%11肇庆391.882.1420.97%12湛江699.3164.0323.46

13、%13梅州424.0186.8920.49%14汕尾293.5771.5824.39%15河源295.370.7523.96%16清远369.8371.3319.29%17韶关282.6652.0318.41%18揭阳587.7145.0724.68%19阳江242.1844.2318.27%20潮州266.9848.7918.27%21云浮236.0152.7622.36%总数10430.221761.7216.89%江苏序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1南京800.4676.149.51%2无锡637.2665.610.29%3徐州858.05154.1717.97%4常州45

14、9.252.8611.51%5苏州1046.696.349.21%6南通728.2877.410.63%7连云港439.3985.4819.46%8淮安479.9980.6516.80%9盐城726.02104.2114.35%10扬州445.9852.711.82%11镇江311.3432.0710.30%12泰州461.8655.9212.11%13宿迁471.5689.4618.97%总数7865.99102313.01%福建序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1福州671.54103.1114.49%2厦门353.1345.3512.84%3莆田277.8549.9217.97

15、%4三明250.3440.616.22%5泉州812.85117.8914.50%6漳州480.9980.7616.79%7南平264.5546.9217.73%8龙岩255.9541.8116.34%9宁德282.1944.215.66%总数3649.39570.5615.63%山东序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1济南681.492.9113.64%2青岛871.51117.1713.44%3淄博453.0666.0514.58%4枣庄354.6660.9416.34%5东营203.5331.6915.57%6烟台696.8276.4710.97%7潍坊908.62137.74

16、15.16%8济宁808.1913917.20%9泰安549.4285.7415.60%10威海280.4828.2810.08%11日照280.1145.5416.26%12滨州374.8560.1516.05%13德州556.8292.6916.65%14聊城578.9998.2416.97%15临沂1003.94182.0318.13%16菏泽828.78172.2920.79%17莱芜129.8520.4915.78%总数9561.031507.4215.77%辽宁序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1沈阳810.6279.29.77%2大连669.0466.229.90%3鞍

17、山364.5943.0911.82%4抚顺222.0520.329.50%5本溪170.9516.489.64%6丹东244.4727.0811.08%7锦州312.6536.0311.52%8营口242.8528.0611.56%9阜新181.9322.0812.14%10辽阳185.8822.0711.88%11铁岭271.7734.712.77%12朝阳354.526.87.60%13盘锦139.2517.712.71%14葫芦岛262.3539.1514.92%总数4432.9499.711.27%吉林序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1长春767.7192.1412.00%

18、2吉林441.4748.8511.06%3四平338.6343.7712.92%4辽源117.6613.9511.85%5通化232.5227.0511.63%6白山129.6614.7111.35%7白城203.3125.3712.48%8延边227.1622.149.75%9松原288.1141.2914.33%总数2746.23329.2711.99%黑龙江序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1哈尔滨1063.6116.4210.95%2齐齐哈尔536.769.1712.89%3牡丹江279.8731.411.22%4佳木斯255.2131.7512.44%5大庆290.4537

19、.5612.93%6鸡西186.2120.210.85%7双鸭山146.2613.769.41%8伊春114.8110.749.36%9七台河92.0411.9813.01%10鹤岗105.8711.4510.82%11黑河167.3921.1612.64%12绥化541.6468.9112.72%13大兴安岭51.165.2910.34%总数3831.21333.378.70%河北序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1石家庄1016.38154.8115.23%2唐山757.73110.8214.62%3秦皇岛298.7642.5814.25%4邯郸917.47190.0520.72

20、%5邢台710.41126.4117.80%6保定1119.44191.5817.11%7张家口434.5569.1715.92%8承德347.3260.3217.37%9沧州713.41127.8617.92%10廊坊435.8865.7315.08%11衡水434.0869.9716.12%总数7185.431209.316.83%河南序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1郑州862.6513816.00%2开封467.6299.9621.38%3洛阳654.95131.320.05%4平顶山490.4499.2420.23%5安阳517.28113.0621.86%6鹤壁156.

21、9135.322.50%7新乡570.78119.7920.99%8焦作353.9966.7618.86%9濮阳359.8579.9622.22%10许昌430.7284.8819.71%11漯河254.4145.517.88%12三门峡223.3934.8815.61%13南阳1026.3234.9122.89%14商丘736.25157.1321.34%15信阳610.87143.6323.51%16周口895.32213.4723.84%17驻马店723.07165.1922.85%18济源67.5711.6217.20%总数9402.371974.5821.00%安徽序号城市总人口（万

22、）0-14岁（万）所占比率1合肥570.280.1214.05%2淮北211.435.7916.93%3毫州485.1113.4523.39%4宿州535.3105.7119.75%5蚌埠316.458.5318.50%6阜阳760175.423.08%7淮南233.436.4615.62%8滁州393.867.7517.20%9六安561.299.3517.70%10 马鞍山136.617.4512.77%11巢湖387.363.416.37%12芜湖226.328.4412.57%13宣城253.336.914.57%14铜陵72.49.9113.69%15池州140.322.916.32%16安庆531.187.816.53%17黄山135.918.213.39%总数59501057.5617.77%江西序号城市总人口（万）0-14岁（万）所占比率1南昌504.2693.11