半导体行业.docx

1、半导体行业半导体行业：洗牌12009-04-112009.04.02Under new managemen 半导体行业处于洗牌中The semiconductor industry 半导体行业Under new management处于洗牌中Apr 2nd 2009 | DRESDENFrom The Economist print editionChipmakers were suffering even before the global economic downturn. Recession is heightening the pain and highlighting change

2、s in structure and ownership在全球经济低迷之前，芯片制造业者已经处于危机中。经济危机的到来更加加剧了这种痛苦，并使得芯片制造业在产业结构和所有制方面的转变迫在眉睫。 MOST tourists come to Dresden to view the citys architectural wonders. Beautifully rebuilt, the Frauenkirche (Church of Our Lady), for instance, reveals no hint that its huge cupola once crumbled after a

3、 rain of British bombs. But the capital of the German state of Saxony also has more contemporary attractionsat least for technically inclined travellers. It is the hub of one of Europes biggest technology clusters. Silicon Saxony, as the region has come to be called, boasts 1,500 high-tech firms emp

4、loying 43,000 people, most of them in the semiconductor industry.大多数游客来到德累斯顿（Dresden），是为了观赏城市中的建筑奇迹。譬如，Frauenkirche （圣母教堂），它在战后被完美的重建了，以至于没有留下巨大圆顶阁楼曾被英军的狂轰滥炸摧毁过的蛛丝马迹。但是德国萨克森州的首府即德累斯顿也同样不乏当代的名胜至少对于爱好技术的游客们来说如此。事实上，它是欧洲最大科学技术密集区的枢纽1500高科技企业以及他们的43000员工聚集此处，其中大多数从事半导体行业，也因此，德累斯顿被尊称为硅-萨克森（Silicon Saxony

5、）。Yet industrial tourists had better hurry. Recently Silicon Saxony has taken some hits that have weakened its foundations. On April 1st Qimonda, a maker of memory chips and the clusters largest employer, mothballed its factory, having been forced into insolvency earlier this year. Its last hope is

6、to be bought by an outside investor lured by money from the Saxon government. Inspur, a Chinese computer-maker, is among those expressing interest in Qimonda, which has developed some cutting-edge technology.然而工业旅游者得抓紧时间了。硅-萨克森最近受到的一些打击已经消弱了他的地位。四月一日，地区最大雇主，存储芯片制造厂商奇梦达（Qimonda）关闭了他的工厂，在今年早些，它已经被迫破产。

7、它的最后希望是被外部投资者收购，因为来自萨克森政府的补贴金仍然对投资者具有吸引力。众多投资者表达了对已经发展了一定先进技术的奇梦达的兴趣，其中包括中国电脑制造商浪潮集团（Inspur）。At Dresdens other big “fab”, as chip-fabrication plants are called, is an indicator of another change that may prove just as damaging. There is a new logo at the entrance: visitors are no longer welcomed to

8、AMD but to Globalfoundries. AMD, a maker of microprocessors for personal computers (PCs), decided last year to spin off its fabs into a separate company and to sell a majority stake to investment funds controlled by the government of Abu Dhabi. A good deal of production, some fret, may eventually mo

9、ve from Dresden to the Gulf.在德累斯顿的另外一个被称为芯片制造工厂的大晶圆厂则表现了一种纯粹破坏性的的改变。在它的入口处有一个新LOGO：欢迎客户来到环球晶圆代工（Globalfoundries）而不是AMD。个人PC微处理器制造商AMD去年决定把晶圆厂分拆到单独的公司，并把多数股份卖给阿布扎比（Abu Dhabi）政府把持的投资基金。有些人担心大量的生产可能将最终从德累斯顿转移到海湾地区。The likely death of Qimonda and the birth of Globalfoundries* have turned Silicon Saxony

10、into an industrial showcase of a very different kind. It is a visible token of how hard recession around the world has hit the semiconductor industry, which had already been weakened by one of its periodic downturns. Just as important, it demonstrates the longer-term upheavals in the industry. The s

11、emiconductor business is becoming less vertically integrated and more concentrated. And its centre of gravity is shifting eastwards. 奇梦达的临近消亡和环球晶圆代工厂的出现已经置硅-萨克森于一种工业展示的奇异境地。而这正是全球经济不景气打击本已受到周期性低迷影响的半导体行业的明显标志。同样重要的，它也是行业长期巨变的明证。半导体业务正从纵向一体化向更多的集聚转变，并且它的重心正向东方转移。 Despite a few signs that the worst ma

12、y be overAsian chipmakers share prices soared recently after shortages were predictedthe industry is still in the midst of the longest slump in its 50-year history. If market researchers are right, it will shrink again in 2009 before resuming growth in 2010. iSuppli, one such forecaster, thinks that

13、 revenues will fall by more than 20% this year, to $205 billion (see chart 1). Other observers have been making similarly gloomy predictions.在普遍预言萧条之时，亚洲芯片制造商近期股价飞涨，这成为少有的显示最坏时期可能结束的标志；除此不论，整个行业仍处于其50年历史中持续最久的低谷之中。如果市场调研正确，在2010年回复增长之前的2009年，半导体行业将会再次收缩。持有如上预测的iSuppli1公司认为今年的相关收入将会同比下降20%，为2050亿美元（见

14、图一）。其它观察家也有相似悲观预见。To understand why the semiconductor industry has been so pummelled, think of integrated circuits (ie, chips) not as tiny pieces of silicon engraved with millions of transistors, but as an essential resource. Before long every man-made object will come with at least one embedded mic

15、rochip (see chart 2). Jerry Sanders, AMDs founder, once called chips “the crude oil of industry”. This seems apt: integrated circuits have become the grease of the information economy. The flip side is that chipmakers have come to depend increasingly on the health of the rest of the economy. 为了解半导体行

16、业为何受到如此沉重打击，应想到集成电路（即芯片）并不仅仅是用成百万晶体管雕刻的小硅片，而更是一种基础资源。不久之后，任何人造物都将被植入至少一个微芯片（见图二）。AMD创始人杰里?桑德斯2（Jerry Sanders）曾经称芯片为“工业的原油”。这似乎容易想到：集成电路已经变成信息经济的润滑剂。另一面，芯片制造商也日益依赖于其它经济方面的健康状态。 The chip cycle芯片周期However, the industrys own economics are also to blame. Even without the worlds wider troubles, these would have caused problems. In explaining how, Dan Hutcheson, chief executive of VLSI Research, a consultancy, likens semiconduc