麦肯信息2.docx

1、麦肯信息2MCANXIXUN VIEW Vol.37，2011*Mcanxixun View*Expert Analysis*Authority Opinion*Focus to Hotspot*World Economy Trend*Global Policy TendencyMCanxixun Information and News ServiceContentsEconomy（经济动态） 3China Data Signal Continued Economic Strength 3中国8月数据信号继续经济实力 4Ghanaian Economy May Grow 20% on Oil

2、, Gold and Cocoa, World Bank Says 6世界银行称：加纳经济或扩张20% 6Too strong for comfort 7币值过高，各国不堪忍受 9U.S. Retail Sales Stall on Lack of Job Growth 10就业增长不足，美国零售业销售停滞 12Lex_UK economy 13Lex专栏：英国经济 13China losing edge as low-cost manufacturer, says KPMG 14毕马威会计师事务所称：中国正失去低成本制造商的优势 15Lex_China and the WTO: a good

3、 thing 15Lex专栏：中国入世10年 16IMF Cuts Global Growth Outlook, Warns About U.S. Deficits, Euro Banks 16IMF消减全球经济增长前景 17S&P Cuts Italys Rating One Notch, Outlook Negative 18标普降级意大利评级，前景不容乐观 19Growth Saps Demand 20全球经济增长不景气，日本出口增加不及预期 21Consumer Hope for Future Hits Lowest Level Since 1980 22美国消费者对未来的预期创下新低

4、 23Harper Running out of Economic Drivers as Carney Warns About Canada Trade 23加拿大贸易不景气，总理助力经济 24Policy（政策解析） 25Whos Worse Off: Europe or the United States? 25欧洲和美国经济哪个更严重？ 27In North Korea, Then As Now, Anxiety About Markets 28“市场经济”概念令金正日担忧 29If Congress Wont Help, What Else Can the Fed Do to Boos

5、t the Economy? 30如果美国国会不给力，那么美联储如何刺激经济？ 31Recovery, or Replaying 1937 (and 2008)? 32美国经济是在复苏，还是在重蹈1937和2008年覆辙？ 38How The IMF Could Try To Bolster The Economy 42IMF该如何提振全球经济？ 43Economic growth follows demand, so give people cash to spend 44英国经济增长追随需求，请给予人们可供消费的现金吧！ 46George Shultz on Politics and Bu

6、dgets 47George Shultz谈论美国政治和预算 48Q&A: Greek debt crisis 49问答：希腊债务危机 51Analysis: Japans lost decade still a risk for U.S. economy 52分析：日本失落的十年仍是美国经济存在的风险 54About China（聚焦中国） 56Economists React: Chinese Inflation Falls from Three-Year High 56经济学家评说中国通胀自三年高点回落 57Economists React: Chinese Imports Way Up

7、 in August 58经济学家评中国8月进口激增 58Eight Questions: Living in Chinas Shadow 59未来的世界将由中国主导？ 61The China Debate Continues: Rodrik Answers Subramanian 63中国能否超越美国 经济学家仍存分歧 63Privatisation with Chinese characteristics 64中国特色的私有制国家资本主义潜在的成本 65Business（商业情报） 66A New BlackBerry That Pushes Few Buttons 66黑莓挑战iPhon

8、e之作：Torch 9850 688 Ways to Prepare Your Business for Disaster 69企业怎样应对自然灾害？ 69How Jobs made Apple fit for the future 70乔布斯留给苹果的遗产 71Bank of China shuns European lenders 72中行叫停与部分欧洲银行在岸外汇交易 73Industries（热门行业） 73Financial Innovation to power growth in a debt ridden market environment 73在债务缠身的市场环境下，电力增

9、长的金融创新 75Chinas Driving Ambition 76中国汽车生产商怎样走向世界？ 78China Home Prices Rise, Challenge Curbs 80中国房价上涨，挑战政府限购令 81LVMH Sees No Slowdown in Luxury Goods Demand 83路易威登集团奢侈商品需求未现放缓迹象 84Economy（经济动态）China Data Signal Continued Economic StrengthChinas record imports and a rebound in lending signaled strengt

10、h in demand that offers a bright spot in a global economy contending with Europes debt crisis and weakening U.S. job gains.Shipments from abroad jumped 30 percent and new local- currency loans were a more-than-forecast 548.5 billion yuan ($86 billion), government reports in the past two days showed.

11、 At the same time, August figures released Sept. 9 indicated that policy makers have made progress in stemming inflation, which eased from a three year high, to a 6.2 percent year-on-year pace.The data may bolster confidence that the worlds second-largest economy is weathering both Premier Wen Jiaba

12、os campaign to defuse price pressures and financial turmoil abroad. Group of Seven finance chiefs vowed “a concerted effort” to support expansion on Sept. 9 as Europes debt woes and zero jobs growth in the U.S. increase the risks of a renewed recession.“This all points to a robust economy, and a har

13、d landing looks an increasingly distant scenario,” said Liu Li-gang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. who previously worked for the World Bank. “China is less reliant on external demand and more dependent on investment and consumption, so the deteriorating

14、global outlook will have less of an impact than during the previous financial crisis.”China, the biggest contributor to world growth last year according to the International Monetary Fund, may expand more than five times faster than the U.S. and 16-nation euro zone this year, according to forecasts

15、from Citigroup Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc.Food Costs Ease Citigroup estimates China will grow 9 percent this year and next year after a 10.4 percent pace in 2010, as Wens campaign to rein in consumer prices takes effect and export growth slows.Augusts inflation rate declined for the first time in fo

16、ur months as gains in food costs eased to 13.4 percent, the statistics bureau said on Sept. 9. Industrial output growth moderated to 13.5 percent and expansion in fixed-asset investment in the first eight months of the year slowed to 25 percent.The data “fell short of signaling any acute economic di

17、fficulties while inflation showed only modest improvement,” said Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist with Societe Generale SA. “The authorities are most likely to wait and see for another month at least before making any clear shifts in policy direction.”Wen reiterated last month that stabilizing p

18、rices remains the top priority and that the government wont alter the direction of economic policies after a global stocks rout and fears that developed nations will sink into recession triggered speculation he may start to unwind monetary tightening.Crude Imports Jump Growth in August imports, whic

19、h topped the estimates of all 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey, adds to evidence tightening measures arent choking expansion.Purchases of crude oil rose to a three-month high, copper climbed to the highest since January and iron-ore purchases were the largest since March, the customs bureau said

20、on Sept. 10.Exports in August jumped a more-than-estimated 24.5 percent to $173.3 billion, just shy of the previous months record.“Theres a huge amount of resilience in the economy, which is supporting higher imports,” said Alastair Thornton, a Beijing-based economist with IHS Global Insight. “But i

21、ts inevitable that weakness in the U.S. and euro zone economies will slow export growth.”The Peoples Bank of China has raised interest rates five times over the past year and curbed lending by boosting banks reserve requirements nine times to a record 21.5 percent for the biggest institutions. The b

22、enchmark one-year lending rate is 6.56 percent and the one-year deposit rate is 3.5 percent.Credit Squeeze Domestic loans used to fund fixed-asset investment grew only 9 percent in the first eight months of the year while so- called “self-raised funds” jumped 29.4 percent, according to statistics bu

23、reau data.Some companies are taking advantage of the credit squeeze to lend at higher interest rates using banks as intermediaries. Time Publishing and Media Co. made an entrusted loan of 60 million yuan through the Bank of Communications at an annual interest rate of 25.4 percent, according to an A

24、ug. 29 statement to the Shanghai stock exchange.Time is among 35 listed companies that made a combined 16.9 billion yuan of entrusted loans at rates higher than the benchmark in the first eight months of the year, the official Peoples Daily reported on its website on Sept. 5. Many of the borrowers w

25、ere property developers, the newspaper said.Lending Rebounds New local-currency loans by banks in August rebounded from a 2011 low the previous month and were 3 billion yuan higher than the same period last year, PBOC data released yesterday show, indicating credit restrictions may be easing.M2, the

26、 broadest measure of money supply, expanded 13.5 percent last month, the slowest pace in almost seven years.Economists at Capital Economics and Standard Chartered say money-supply growth may be distorted as savers, suffering from negative real interest rates, shift funds out of deposit accounts into

27、 wealth management products to earn higher returns. These products arent included in M2.New local-currency deposits totaled 696.2 billion yuan in August, 373.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year, the PBOC said yesterday. Deposits fell 668.7 billion yuan in July.“The central bank needs

28、to address the issue of negative interest rates as soon as possible because its leading to distortions in the financial system and could bring huge potential risks to the financial system,” said ANZs Liu.中国8月数据信号继续经济实力中国创纪录的进口以及贷款上的反弹标志着：强劲的增长需求给全球经济带来了曙光，使之更好的斗争欧洲债务危机和美国疲软的就业增长。中国政府两天前的报告显示：海外发货量跃升

29、30，同时新的地方性货币贷款增加5485亿人民币（合860亿美元）。与此同时，9月9日公布的八月份的数据表明：政策决策者已在抑制通货膨胀（从三年来的高点中放缓，至6.2）上取得了进步。该数据可能会增强对“这个世界上第二大经济体将风化温家宝总理为平息价格压力和国外金融风暴而采取的行动”的信心。当欧洲债务危机和美国就业零增长加剧新一轮衰退风险时，七国集团的财务负责人誓言“齐心协力”，以支持扩张。澳大利亚新西兰银行集团有限公司（Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.）香港经济学家刘立刚（Liu Li-Gang）表示：“这些都表明了一个健全的经济，同时硬着

30、陆看起来越来越远。中国很少依赖于外部需求，而是越来越依赖于投资和消费，因此恶化的经济前景将不会产生像金融危机期间那样大的影响”。据国际货币基金组织称：花旗集团和汇丰控股有限公司预测显示，去年对世界经济增长贡献最大的中国，其扩张速度可能是美国和16个欧元区国家的六倍。食品价格放缓花旗集团预计：中国经济在2010年增长10.4之后，今年将增长9，因为温家宝总理采取措施，以控制消费者价格的作用，以及出口增长的减缓。国家统计局9月9日表示：由于食品成本的上涨回落至13.4，八月的通胀率在四个月内首次出现下降。工业产值的增长降至13.5，并且今年前八个月的固定资产投资的扩张放缓至25。法国兴业银行驻香港

31、经济学家姚伟表示：这些数据“没有发出任何严重的经济困难的信号，而通胀率显示出了适当的改进。中国当局在作出任何明确的政策转变之前，有可能会继续观望至少一个月”。上个月，温家宝总理重申：稳定物价仍是当务之急，并反复强调在全球股票暴跌以及对发展中国家可能会陷入衰退的担忧（引发了一个推测，即温总理有可能放松货币紧缩政策）之后，中国政府没有改变政策方向。原油进口攀升8月份的出口增长高于彭博社调查的29名经济学家的预期，这就更加说明紧缩政策不会阻碍扩张。中国税务局9月10日称：原油购买升至三个月来的最高点，铜的购买创下了自一月份以来的新高，而铁矿石的采购也达到了自三月份以来的最高值。8月，中国出口增长24

32、.5，至1773亿美元，略低于前一个月的最高纪录。HIS环球透视驻北京经济学家Alastair Thornton说：“中国经济具有巨大的弹性，这将支撑更高的进口。但无法避免的是：美国和欧元区疲软的经济将减缓出口增长”。在过去一年中，中国已进行了五次利率上调，并通过推动九次提升（升至创纪录的21.5）银行存款准备金率来抑制借款。一年期基准贷款率为6.56，一年期存款率为3.5。信贷紧缩中国国家统计局数据显示：曾资助固定资产投资的国内贷款在今年前八个月仅增长了9，而所谓的“靠自身努力提升的资金”上涨29.4。一些公司正利用信贷紧缩来以较高的利率贷款，把银行当作中介机构。据上海证券交易所8月29日的声明显示：时代出版传媒股份有限公司（ime Publishing and Media Co.）将自有资金6000万元委托交通银行，委托贷款年利率为25