国际金融第八章课件.ppt

1、Part II Macro Policies for Open EconomiesFocus on macroeconomic performance.8 How does the open macroeconomy work?9 Internal and external balance with fixed exchange rates10 Floating exchange rates and internal balance1macroeconomic performance（宏观经济运行）the behavior(变化)of a countrys output,jobs,and pr

2、ices in the face of changing world conditions.2CHAPTER 8How Does the Open Macroeconomy Work?开放的宏观经济是如何运行的？开放的宏观经济是如何运行的？Framework of this chapterThe performance of a national economy 一国经济的状况Equilibrium GDP and spending multipliers 均衡GDP和支出乘数Three markets 三个市场（产品、货币和外汇市场）4The performance of a nationa

3、l economyHow well is a countrys economy performing?We judge the performance of a national economy against two objectives.Internal balance and external balance.5Internal BalanceFull employment,or an acceptably low unemployment ratePrice stability,or an acceptably low inflation rate 6 External balance

4、Sustainable(能保持一定水平的)balance of payments with the rest of the worldUseful indicator:Official settlements balance approximately equal to zero(so that the country is not losing official international reserves or acquiring unwanted official international reserves)7Our discussion here focus on the count

5、rys current account.The goal here need not be a zero balance.8A framework for macroeconomic analysis p164Analysis on the behavior of the economy in the short run is relatively Keynesian（凯恩斯主义者）in that the price level is not immediately responsive to aggregate demand(AD)and supply.Analysis on the beh

6、avior of the economy in the longer run is more classical(古典学派的)in that the price level does respond to demand and supply.9Determinants of real GDP(representing both domestic product and national income)10Domestic production depends on aggregate demandA major performance goal of an economy is to achi

7、eve production of goods and services that is close to the economys potential.The value of production of goods and services is the economys real GDP(Y);it is nearly the same thing as real national income.11In the short run(and within the economys supply capabilities),domestic production is determined

8、 by aggregate demand:Y=AD=C+Id+G+(X-M)国内产出（国民收入）总需求 消费国内投资政府支出净出口(X-M):Exports are the foreign demand for our goods;imports are already included in the other kinds of spending.12Y=AD=C+Id+G+(X-M)ENational spending on goods and services13ContdNational spending on goods and services:E=C+Id+G C=C(Y)(+)

9、Id=Id(i)(-)G is treated as a political decision.14Trade depends on income p166M=M(Y),imports M are a positive function of Y.Marginal propensity to import(m):the amount by which our imports increase when our income goes up by one dollar.边际进口倾向：每增加一元的收入所增加的进口量。X depends on income of foreign countries.

10、15Equilibrium GDP and spending multipliersEquilibrium GDPThe condition for equilibrium:real GDP=AD,AD=E+X-M,holding the interest rate constant,AD(Y)=E(Y)+X-M(Y),Therefore,the equilibrium condition is Y=AD(Y)=E(Y)+X-M(Y)16The spending multiplier in a small,open economyThe spending multiplier shows ho

11、w equilibrium GDP responds to exogenous（外来的）changes in any component of aggregate demand.支出乘数体现了均衡GDP是如何随总需求各组成部分的变化而变化的。乘数是指由总支出变动引起的国民收入增加的倍数。17Suppose that the government raises its purchases of domestically produced goods and services by 10 units10 units purchases10 extra income for whoever prod

12、ucesSpending part of the extra income to consumeExtra part income for whoever produces 18ContdWith each extra dollar of income,people willSave 20 cents marginal propensity to save(s)?Spend 30 cents on imports marginal propensity to import(m)?Spend 50 cents domestically marginal propensity to consume

13、 domestic product(1-s-m)?19Both 20%saved and 30%imports in the extra income represent“leakages”from the domestic expenditure stream.In the second round of income and expenditures,only 50%(1-20%-30%)will be passed on and divided up into further domestic spending.2010 units purchases10 extra income fo

14、r whoever producesSpending 5 units of the extra income to consume5 units income for whoever produces goods and service 2.5 units spending on domestic consumption21ContdThe spending multiplier in a small open economy is Y/G=1/(s+m)国民收入的增量/政府支出的增量=1/(边际储蓄倾向+边际进口倾向)Note:The multiplier is smaller in a s

15、mall open economy than it in a comparable closed economy(in which m is zero)Exercise:Q4 p185 a,b22 a.The spending multiplier in this small open economy is about 1.82(=1/(0.15+0.4).If real spending initially declines by$2 billion,then domestic product and income will decline by about$3.64 billion(=1.

16、82$2 billion)b.If domestic product and income decline by$3.64 billion,then the countrys imports will decline by about$1.46 billion(=$3.64 billion 0.4).23 Foreign Spillovers（需求溢出）and Foreign-Income Repercussions国外需求溢出和外国收入的影响Foreign SpilloversSpillover:需求溢出 -因某种商品不足而引起对其他有关商品的需求 Spillover effect:溢出效应，是指事物一个方面的发展带动了该事物其它方面的发展。如，一国总需求与国民收入增加对别国的影响。24If the country is not smallthe follow-on effects of these importsThe effects can be important in two ways:-changes in production and income of a large