国际金融第八章课件.ppt

国际金融第八章课件.ppt

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PartIIMacroPoliciesforOpenEconomiesFocusonmacroeconomicperformance.8Howdoestheopenmacroeconomywork?

9Internalandexternalbalancewithfixedexchangerates10Floatingexchangeratesandinternalbalance1macroeconomicperformance（宏观经济运行）thebehavior（变化）ofacountrysoutput,jobs,andpricesinthefaceofchangingworldconditions.2CHAPTER8HowDoestheOpenMacroeconomyWork?

开放的宏观经济是如何运行的？

开放的宏观经济是如何运行的？

FrameworkofthischapterTheperformanceofanationaleconomy一国经济的状况EquilibriumGDPandspendingmultipliers均衡GDP和支出乘数Threemarkets三个市场（产品、货币和外汇市场）4TheperformanceofanationaleconomyHowwellisacountryseconomyperforming?

Wejudgetheperformanceofanationaleconomyagainsttwoobjectives.Internalbalanceandexternalbalance.5InternalBalanceFullemployment,oranacceptablylowunemploymentratePricestability,oranacceptablylowinflationrate6ExternalbalanceSustainable（能保持一定水平的）balanceofpaymentswiththerestoftheworldUsefulindicator:

Officialsettlementsbalanceapproximatelyequaltozero（sothatthecountryisnotlosingofficialinternationalreservesoracquiringunwantedofficialinternationalreserves）7Ourdiscussionherefocusonthecountryscurrentaccount.Thegoalhereneednotbeazerobalance.8Aframeworkformacroeconomicanalysisp164AnalysisonthebehavioroftheeconomyintheshortrunisrelativelyKeynesian（凯恩斯主义者）inthatthepricelevelisnotimmediatelyresponsivetoaggregatedemand（AD）andsupply.Analysisonthebehavioroftheeconomyinthelongerrunismoreclassical（古典学派的）inthatthepriceleveldoesrespondtodemandandsupply.9DeterminantsofrealGDP（representingbothdomesticproductandnationalincome）10DomesticproductiondependsonaggregatedemandAmajorperformancegoalofaneconomyistoachieveproductionofgoodsandservicesthatisclosetotheeconomyspotential.ThevalueofproductionofgoodsandservicesistheeconomysrealGDP（Y）;itisnearlythesamethingasrealnationalincome.11Intheshortrun（andwithintheeconomyssupplycapabilities）,domesticproductionisdeterminedbyaggregatedemand:

Y=AD=C+Id+G+（X-M）国内产出（国民收入）总需求消费国内投资政府支出净出口（X-M）:

Exportsaretheforeigndemandforourgoods;importsarealreadyincludedintheotherkindsofspending.12Y=AD=C+Id+G+（X-M）ENationalspendingongoodsandservices13ContdNationalspendingongoodsandservices:

E=C+Id+GC=C（Y）（+）Id=Id（i）（-）Gistreatedasapoliticaldecision.14Tradedependsonincomep166M=M（Y）,importsMareapositivefunctionofY.Marginalpropensitytoimport（m）:

theamountbywhichourimportsincreasewhenourincomegoesupbyonedollar.边际进口倾向：

每增加一元的收入所增加的进口量。

Xdependsonincomeofforeigncountries.15EquilibriumGDPandspendingmultipliersEquilibriumGDPTheconditionforequilibrium:

realGDP=AD,AD=E+X-M,holdingtheinterestrateconstant,AD（Y）=E（Y）+X-M（Y）,Therefore,theequilibriumconditionisY=AD（Y）=E（Y）+X-M（Y）16Thespendingmultiplierinasmall,openeconomyThespendingmultipliershowshowequilibriumGDPrespondstoexogenous（外来的）changesinanycomponentofaggregatedemand.支出乘数体现了均衡GDP是如何随总需求各组成部分的变化而变化的。

乘数是指由总支出变动引起的国民收入增加的倍数。

17Supposethatthegovernmentraisesitspurchasesofdomesticallyproducedgoodsandservicesby10units10unitspurchases10extraincomeforwhoeverproducesSpendingpartoftheextraincometoconsumeExtrapartincomeforwhoeverproduces18ContdWitheachextradollarofincome,peoplewillSave20centsmarginalpropensitytosave（s）?

Spend30centsonimportsmarginalpropensitytoimport（m）?

Spend50centsdomesticallymarginalpropensitytoconsumedomesticproduct（1-s-m）?

19Both20%savedand30%importsintheextraincomerepresent“leakages”fromthedomesticexpenditurestream.Inthesecondroundofincomeandexpenditures,only50%（1-20%-30%）willbepassedonanddividedupintofurtherdomesticspending.2010unitspurchases10extraincomeforwhoeverproducesSpending5unitsoftheextraincometoconsume5unitsincomeforwhoeverproducesgoodsandservice2.5unitsspendingondomesticconsumption21ContdThespendingmultiplierinasmallopeneconomyisY/G=1/（s+m）国民收入的增量/政府支出的增量=1/（边际储蓄倾向+边际进口倾向）Note:

Themultiplierissmallerinasmallopeneconomythanitinacomparableclosedeconomy（inwhichmiszero）Exercise:

Q4p185a,b22a.Thespendingmultiplierinthissmallopeneconomyisabout1.82（=1/（0.15+0.4）.Ifrealspendinginitiallydeclinesby$2billion,thendomesticproductandincomewilldeclinebyabout$3.64billion（=1.82$2billion）b.Ifdomesticproductandincomedeclineby$3.64billion,thenthecountrysimportswilldeclinebyabout$1.46billion（=$3.64billion0.4）.23ForeignSpillovers（需求溢出）andForeign-IncomeRepercussions国外需求溢出和外国收入的影响ForeignSpilloversSpillover:

需求溢出-因某种商品不足而引起对其他有关商品的需求Spillovereffect:

溢出效应，是指事物一个方面的发展带动了该事物其它方面的发展。

如，一国总需求与国民收入增加对别国的影响。

24Ifthecountryisnotsmallthefollow-oneffectsoftheseimportsTheeffectscanbeimportantintwoways:

-changesinproductionandincomeofalarge