耶鲁《金融市场》视频笔记教材.docx

1、耶鲁金融市场视频笔记教材This is Economics 252,Financial Markerts,这是经济类252号课金融市场and Im Robert Shiller.我是罗伯特.希勒。Let me begin by introducing the teaching fellows for this course;课程伊始，先介绍下课程助教and so I have them up here.我把他们的简历展示在这里We have five teaching fellows at this time本课共有5位助教and theyre from all over.来自世界各地。I l

2、ike to out their pictures up.我把他们的照片也贴了上来。so youll know who they are.让你们知道他们长什么样。The teaching fellows are very international助教来自世界各地and that reflects my intention to这也反映了我希望此课make this a course that is also very international具有国际化视角because finance is something about the whole world today.因为金融关系到全球各个

3、国家not just the United States.不仅仅局限于美国国内So we cover the world very well with our T.A.s.所以我们的助教来自世界各地Usman Ali is from Pakistan, Lahore.乌斯曼.阿里来自巴勒斯坦的拉合尔and he graduated from the LUMS.他毕业于LUMSLahore University of Management Sciences.也就是拉合尔管理科学大学Hes a PHDcandidate now in Economics他正在攻读经济学博士学位and hes doi

4、ng his doctoral dissertation他的博士论文方向是on stock analysts recommendations and 股票分析师的建议the relation to returns in the stock market.和其与股票市场回报的关系Hes also interested in behavioral finance.他还对行为金融学感兴趣Which is the application of psychology to finance.也就是心理学在金融上的应用The second teaching assistant I see him right

5、 there.第二位助教他就坐在这间教室里if you could raise your hand Santosh Anagol.请举起手来桑托什.阿纳高。who is a representative of the United States.是一位来自美国的代表although he seems to have connections to India as well. 虽然他看起来也有印度血统He actually has a publication already他曾经在美国经济评论杂志上in the American Economic Review发表过文章on the Return

6、 to Capital with Ghana.研究的是加纳的资本回报He did this jointly with这是他和耶鲁经济学院院长the Chairman of the Economics Department here, Chris Udry克里斯.尤迪合作完成的and he has spent time in India looking at the village economies.他也曾在印度做过农村经济的研究You were going to be giving away cows, did you do that?你们不是打算送农民奶牛的么？送了吗？No, Im sti

7、ll working on cows没，我还在研究那个奶牛的问题but were not giving them away.但是我们现在不送奶牛了Okay, thats the last time youll hear about cows in this course.好吧，你们不会在课上再听到奶牛这个词了The idea was to give cows away to village farmers他们计划赠与村民奶牛And to observe the outcome.然后观察产出Its a big change in some of these very poor viliages

8、to get a cow.奶牛对这些赤贫的村庄来说可是生财之道Christian Awuku Budu is from Ghana,Accra,克里斯蒂安.阿武库布都来自加纳的阿克拉but he ,again, went to college in但他的大学学业the United States at Morehouse College.是在美国的莫尔豪斯学院完成的He is also a PHD candidate in Economics at Yale他正在耶鲁攻读经济学博士学位and hes been doing research on他目前正在研究financial markets

9、in developing countries.发展中国家的金融市场Yaxin Duan is from China.段雅心来自中国She got her undergraduate degree from Nanjing University.她本科毕业于南京大学No? You are from Nanjing, did I get a detail wrong?不对吗？你来自南京，我记错了吗？Where did you go to college?你在哪上的大学呢？Okay, well Im sorry about that.我很抱歉，我弄错了She is also a PhD candi

10、date in Economics她也在攻读经济学博士学位and is doing research on the behavior of目前正在研究“期权微笑”也就是options prices in a phenomenon called the “Options smile,” 期权隐含波动率微笑现象中的价格变动趋势as shes smilling at me right now她现在正对我微笑呢She is also interested in behavioral finance她也对行为金融感兴趣which is great to me because thats one of m

11、y interests很棒，因为这也是我的兴趣之一She is shown here standing precariously on a cliff.照片上的她摇摇欲坠地站在悬崖的边上It makes me nervous to look at it 光看就让我觉着紧张Overlooking Machu Picchu in Peru眺望着秘鲁的马丘比丘山She also loves astronomy她还喜欢天文学which is incidentally an interest of mine too巧合的是，这也是我的爱好之一but you wont hear about it agai

12、n in this course.但在这节课上我也不会提及Finally, Xiaolan Zhou is our fifth teaching assistant最后，周晓兰是第五位助教and shes also from China, Hubei Province她来自中国的湖北省She graduated from Wuhan University她来自武汉大学and is a PhD candidate in Economics at Yale目前正攻读耶鲁的经济学博士学位She is doing research on bank mergers她目前正从事银行合并的研究Let me

13、say,那个Ive been teaching this course now for over twenty years and我教这门课已经有20多年的时间了Im very proud of all of my alumni我为自己的毕业生所骄傲Many of them are in the field on finance很多毕业生都在金融领域工作In fact, I like sometimes when I give.事实上，我喜欢当自己讲I give a lot of public talks我做过很多公开讲座When I give a talk on Wall Street当我在

14、华尔街做讲座时or even somewhere else in the world或者是世界上其他的地方I sometimes ask my audience有时候我会问我的听众Did you take my course?你们有谁上过我的课吗Its not infrequent that Ill get one or even two people有的时候会有一两个人raising their hand that举起手说they took Economics 252 from me.他们上过我的经济学252号课But Im also proud of my alumni in this c

15、ourse同时我也很为那些选修过这课的who are not in the world of finance.却不在金融领域工作的毕业生们自豪I think this course goes beyond.我认为这门课不仅Its not just for people who are planning careers in finance它不仅为那些立志从事金融业的学生开设because finance is a very important technology因为金融是一门很重要的技术and its very important to know finance只有掌握了金融学的知识to u

16、nderstand what happens in the real world,才能真正了解国际大事的本质Just about any human endeavor involves finance.因为任何人类行为都能与金融沾上些关系Now, you might say.也许你会问I could be a poet and what does that have to do with finance?我想做个诗人，这跟金融有关系吗Well, it probably ends up having something to do with finance它很可能跟金融有关because as

17、a poet you probably want to publish your poetry and因为作为一个诗人，你想要发表诗作youre going to be talking to publishers.那你就得和出版商谈谈Before you know it,不可避免的theyre going to be talking about their financial situation他们会说到自己的财务状况and how you fit into it以及你是否适合在他们公司出版作品I believe its fundamental and very important我相信这是理

18、所当然的，也是很重要的I think you will find this course as not a vocational course.你会发现这不是一门为就业所设计的课程not primarily a vocational course.并不集中探讨业务知识but an intellectual course about how things really work.而是一门关于事物机制的课程I see finance as the underpinning of so much that happens.我将金融视为诸多事物的基础Its a powerful force that

19、goes behind the scene它是一种潜藏在暗处的强大力量and I hope we can draw that out in this course.希望通过此课可以窥得其冰山一角There is another course -we have basic courses还有另外一门课，耶鲁共为In finance for undergraduates at Yale.大学生准备了两门金融方面的基础课程The other one is Economics 251, Financial Theory,还有一门是经济学251号课程，金融理论学this is Financial Mar

20、kets,这是金融市场课that one is Financial Theory.那是金融理论学Last year it was taught by Rafael Romeu.去年是由拉斐尔.罗梅乌执掌教鞭because John, Geanakoplos因为通常教这门课的who usually teaches the course, was on leave约翰.吉纳科普洛斯请假了and so we had to find someone else.所以我们需要聘请了另一名教授I assume that next fall John Geanakoplos今年秋天约翰.吉纳科普洛斯will

21、be teaching 251 again. 就可以继续教授251号课程了So what happened?怎么回事呢Why do we have these two courses?我们为什么要开设这样两门课呢Well it was something like eight years ago八年前的一件事that we reached the present situation with two finance courses.促使我们同时开设了两门金融类课程John Geanakoplos and I had a meeting约翰.吉纳科普洛斯和我开了个会and we tried to

22、 divide up the subject matter of finance 我们将金融这一学科into two courses分为两门课We thought Financial Theory and financial Markets would be the two.我们决定将其分为金融理论学和金融市场But the problem was that both John and I are interested in但问题是，约翰和我both theory and applications.对两者的理论及应用都十分感兴趣John Geanakoplos is actually约翰.吉纳

23、科普洛斯为一家Chief Economist位于康涅狄格州格林威治的for a large investment company名为埃林顿基金的大型投资机构called Ellington Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut,做首席经济学家which youll see a lot in the news这家公司的大名经常见诸报端It has been very successful公司运作十分成功He is very much interested in the real world他对真实世界更感兴趣and I am interested in financ

24、ial theory而我更倾向于金融理论学so we find it - we decided, after talking about it,所以我们发现在讨论后我们决定that we really cant divide up the subject matter of finance into我们不能将金融这个学科分为separate courses on theory and practice.两个不同的课程，即理论和应用If you tried to do one alone it would not work,非要分开单独来学的话是不可行的so we decided to divi

25、de it up imperfectly所以我们只能退而求其次and there may be some repetition between our two courses.分割后的两门课可能会有重复的部分Both of them are self-contained courses,两门课都自成一体so you could take either 251 or 252,你可以在251号和252号中任选一个or you could take both或者都选也行I think maybe the best option is to take both如果你真的对金融很感兴趣的话if your

26、e really interested in the subject matter.我觉得最明智的选择就是都选It is true though that his course is他的课确实比我的more tuned into theoretical detail than min.更加偏向理论细节John is a mathematical economist约翰是个数理经济学家and we both love mathematics,我们都热爱数学but maybe John is going to do more of it than I am.但是约翰会讲授更多关于数学的内容This

27、 course actually will not use a heavy amount of mathematics.这门课不会使用太多的数学知识I try to keep it so that我可以保证这一点people who are not comfortable with a lot of math这样不太喜欢数学的同学can take this course也可以选这门课and I wanted to emphasize that this is-Ive said that its-我还想强调的是，我已经说过I think this course is vocational pre

28、paration in a sense.某种意义上这门课程也与就业有关I pride myself on the fact that我很骄傲的说people who have taken this course选了这门课的人find it useful in their subsequent lives,会在以后的生活中用到这些知识but on the other hand,而另一方面I think that its really interesting.我觉着这是门有趣的课At least I find it really interesting至少我自己这么觉得and so I hope

29、that you will too但愿你们和我有类似的感觉Now I dont know, I may be different than other people,但我不确定，也许我和他人不太一样呢but I think organic chemistry is really interesting.我认为有机化学很有趣How many of you have that feeling?有多少人有同感呢Can I get a show of hands, who is interested in organic chemistry?对有机化学感兴趣的同学能举下手吗Im not getting

30、 a lot of hands raised,挺少的啊Unfortunately, Ive never taken a course in it,遗憾的是，我从未上过有机化学课But Ive started reading it lately但我最近开始读一些out of just my broad intellectual interest这是我广泛爱好中的一种That is a course that has a bad reputation, doesnt it?有机化学这门课的名声不太好，对吧Because people say Ive got to take that if I want to be pre-med.据说想做医学预科生的人才选那门课吧But, you know, to me theres a lot of detail in organic chemistry.但是，对我来说有机化学中有很多细节内容To me, when you read the detail对我来说，但你读到细节时youre getting into something deep and important你就会了解到事物机制中about th