就业利息和货币通论 16Word文件下载.docx

1、AN act of individual saving means-so to speak a decision not to have dinner to-day. But it does not necessitate a decision to have dinner or to buy a pair of boots a week hence or a year hence or to consume any specified thing at any specified date. Thus it depresses the business of preparing to-day

2、s dinner without stimulating the business of making ready for some future act of consumption. It is not a substitution of future consumption-demand for present consumption-demand;-it is a net diminution of such demand. Moreover, the expectation of future consumption is so largely based on current ex

3、perience of present consumption that a reduction in the latter is likely to depress the former, with the result that the act of saving will not merely depress the price of consumption-goods and leave the marginal efficiency of existing capital unaffected, but may actually tend to depress the latter

4、also. In this event it may reduce present investment-demand as well as present consumption-demand. 个人的储蓄行为可以说是今天不用餐的决策。但这并非需要决策在一周或者一年之后用餐或买双皮鞋，或者在任何特定的日期消费特定的东西。因此，它抑制了供应今天用餐的商业活动，同时又没有刺激准备未来消费行为的商业活动。它不是用将来的消费需求代替现在的消费需求它是这种需求的一种净减少。此外，人们对未来消费的期望如此依赖当期消费的经验，以致当期消费的减少可能抑制未来的消费。结果，储蓄行为不只会压低消费品的价格，从而

5、使当期的资本边际效率不变；而且还会在压低消费品价格的同时，降低资本边际效率。这样，储蓄行为除了会减少当期消费需求之外，还会减少当期的投资需求。If saving consisted not merely in abstaining from present consumption but in placing simultaneously a specific order for future consumption, the effect might indeed be different. For in that case the expectation of some future yi

6、eld from investment would be improved, and the resources released from preparing for present consumption could be turned over to preparing for the future consumption. Not that they necessarily would be, even in this case, on a scale equal to the amount of resources released; since the desired interv

7、al of delay might require a method of production so inconveniently roundabout as to have an efficiency well below the current rate of interest, with the result that the favourable effect on employment of the forward order for consumption would eventuate not at once but at some subsequent date, so th

8、at the immediate effect of the saving would still be adverse to employment. In any case, however, an individual decision to save does not, in actual fact, involve the placing of any specific forward order for consumption, but merely the cancellation of a present order. Thus, since the expectation of

9、 consumption is the only raison dtre of employment, there should be nothing paradoxical in the conclusion that a diminished propensity to consume has cet. par. A depressing effect on employment. 如果储蓄不仅意味着放弃当期消费，而且同时还意味着对未来消费订单的搁置，它对未来的影响的确是很不相同的，因为在这种情形下，对投资所得到的未来收益的预期会有所增进，并且从准备供给当期消费所用的资源中释放出来的部分可

10、以转移到准备供给未来消费之用。不过，即使在这种情形，准备供给未来消费之用的部分，在规模上并不必然等于释放出来的资源数量，因为，人们愿意推迟消费的间隔时期可能要求生产方式“迂回”到如此不方便的程度，以致为未来消费而生产的资本的边际效率会低于当期利息率。结果，为未来消费而预下的订单对就业可能产生的有利影响不能立即实现，而要等到今后的某个日期才能显现，因而储蓄的即刻影响对就业仍然是不利的。然而，在任何情形，个人储蓄的决策在现实中并不包含对未来消费预下订单，而只是代表对当期订单的取消。由此可见，由于对消费的期望是就业存在的唯一理由，因而不难理解，在其他条件不变的情形下，消费倾向的降低会产生压低就业的影

11、响。The trouble arises, therefore, because the act of saving implies, not a substitution for present consumption of some specific additional consumption which requires for its preparation just as much immediate economic activity as would have been required by present consumption equal in value to the

12、sum saved, but a desire for wealth as such, that is for a potentiality of consuming an unspecified article at an unspecified time. The absurd, though almost universal, idea that an act of individual saving is just as good for effective demand as an act of individual consumption, has been fostered by

13、 the fallacy, much more specious than the conclusion derived from it, that an increased desire to hold wealth, being much the same thing as an increased desire to hold investments, must, by increasing the demand for investments, provide a stimulus to their production; so that current investment is p

14、romoted by individual saving to the same extent as present consumption is diminished. 所以，麻烦就产生了。因为储蓄行为不包含某种特定的额外消费以代替当期消费，而这种特定的额外消费所要求的当期经济活动量又能等同于由于储蓄而减少的当期消费所要求的经济活动量。但是，储蓄只是代表得到“财富”的一种欲望，只是为了得到在任何时间消费任何物品的一种潜能。有一种几乎普遍存在的错误看法认为，对有效需求而言，个人的储蓄行为和消费行为一样好。这种错误看法来自一种看似合理的谬论，即：持有财富的欲望的增加和持有投资品的欲望的增加是同一

15、回事。对投资品需求的增加必然会刺激它们的生产，从而，个人储蓄对当期投资的推动与当期消费的减少对当期投资的推动是同等程度的。It is of this fallacy that it is most difficult to disabuse mens minds. It comes from believing that the owner of wealth desires a capital-asset as such, whereas what he really desires is its prospective yield. Now, prospective yield wholl

16、y depends on the expectation of future effective demand in relation to future conditions of supply. If, therefore, an act of saving does nothing to improve prospective yield, it does nothing to stimulate investment. Moreover, in order than an individual saver may attain his desired goal of the owner

17、ship of wealth, it is not necessary that a new capital-asset should be produced wherewith to satisfy him. The mere act of saving by one individual, being two-sided as we have shown above, forces some other individual to transfer to him some article of wealth old or new. Every act of saving involves

18、a forced inevitable transfer of wealth to him who saves, though he in his turn may suffer from the saving of others. These transfers of wealth do not require the creation of new wealth-indeed, as we have seen, they may be actively inimical to it. The creation of new wealth wholly depends on the pros

19、pective yield of the new wealth reaching the standard set by the current rate of interest. The prospective yield of the marginal new investment is not increased by the fact that someone wishes to increase his wealth, since the prospective yield of the marginal new investment depends on the expectati

20、on of a demand for a specific article at a specific date. 从人们心中去掉这种谬论是困难的。这种谬论源于人们相信，财富所有者固然希望拥有资本资产本身，但他真正想拥有的则是资本资产的未来收益。未来收益完全取决于对未来有效需求和未来供给情况之间关系的预期。所以，如果储蓄行为无益于促进未来收益，它也就无益于刺激投资。而且，单个储蓄者要想达到成为财富所有者的目标，不必非要有新的资本资产品生产出来以满足他的愿望。正如我们前面已经指出的那样，个人的单纯储蓄行为具有两面性：一个人储蓄会迫使另一些个体转移某些旧的或新的财富品给他，因而，每一次储蓄行为都包

21、含着“强迫的”不可避免的将财富转移给储蓄者，而该储蓄者反过来也会将财富转移给别的储蓄者。这些财富的转移不需要有新财富的创造诚然，正如我们已经看到的那样，这种转移甚至反而不利于新财富的创造。新财富的创造完全取决于新财富的未来收益能否达到当期利息率所决定的水平。边际新增投资的未来收益不会由于某人意图增加其财富而增加，因为边际新增投资的未来收益又取决于在某一特定日期对某一特定物品的需求的预期。Nor do we avoid this conclusion by arguing that what the owner of wealth desires is not a given prospecti

22、ve yield but the best available prospective yield, so that an increased desire to own wealth reduces the prospective yield with which the producers of new investment have to be content. For this overlooks the fact that there is always an alternative to the ownership of real capital-assets, namely th

23、e ownership of money and debts; so that the prospective yield with which the producers of new investment have to be content cannot fall below the standard set by the current rate of interest. And the current rate of interest depends, as we have seen, not on the strength of the desire to hold wealth,

24、 but on the strengths of the desires to hold it in liquid and in illiquid forms respectively, coupled with the amount of the supply of wealth in the one form relatively to the supply of it in the other. If the reader still finds himself perplexed, let him ask himself why, the quantity of money being

25、 unchanged, a fresh act of saving should diminish the sum which it is desired to keep in liquid form at the existing rate of interest. 上述结论是不能用这样一种论证予以否定的，即：财富所有者所期望的不是固定量的预期收益，而是可能有的最好的预期收益，因此，拥有财富的意愿的增加会使得新投资品的生产者所满意的预期收益减少。这种论证忽略了一个事实，即：除了拥有实际的资本资产之外，总还存在持有财富的另外一些办法，即：拥有货币或债券，从而使新增投资品的生产者所满意的预期收益

26、不能低于当期利息率所决定的水平，而当期利息率，像我们已经看到的那样，并不取决于持有财富的意愿的强度，而是取决于财富是分别采取流动性形式还是非流动性形式持有的意愿强度，以及这两种财富形式之间的相对供给量。如果读者至此仍感到困惑不解，那么，读者可以问自己：当货币数量不变时，为什么新的储蓄行为，在当期利息率下，会降低以流动性形式持有财富的意愿？Certain deeper perplexities, which may arise when we try to probe still further into the whys and wherefores, will be considered i

27、n the next chapter. 当我们试图进一步探讨为什么和什么原因时，会引出更深层的疑问，这将在下一章予以考察。IIIt is much preferable to speak of capital as having a yield over the course of its life in excess of its original cost, than as being productive. For the only reason why an asset offers a prospect of yielding during its life services hav

28、ing an aggregate value greater than its initial supply price is because it is scarce; and it is kept scarce because of the competition of the rate of interest on money. If capital becomes less scarce, the excess yield will diminish, without its having become less productive-at least in the physical

29、sense. 与其说资本是生产性的，还不如说资本在其使用寿命中会有一笔超过其原有成本的收益。为什么一项资产在其使用寿命中能提供一种服务，从而使其总价值大于它的原有供给价格的唯一理由在于：它之所以能维持稀缺性，是因为要获取购买资本品的货币要支付利息。如果资本的稀缺性变得较少，超额收益就会减少，而它的生产性并没有减少至少在实物意义上是如此。I sympathise, therefore, with the pre-classical doctrine that everything is produced by labour, aided by what used to be called art

30、 and is now called technique, by natural resources which are free or cost a rent according to their scarcity or abundance, and by the results of past labour, embodied in assets, which also command a price according to their scarcity or abundance. It is preferable to regard labour, including, of cour

31、se, the personal services of the entrepreneur and his assistants, as the sole factor of production, operating in a given environment of technique, natural resources, capital equipment and effective demand. This partly explains why we have been able to take the unit of labour as the sole physical uni

32、t which we require in our economic system, apart from units of money and of time. 因此，我欣赏古典学派以前的理论，即：每一件物品都是由劳动生产出来的，再辅之以：（1）过去被称为工艺，现在叫做技术的事物；（2）自由取用的或者按照它们的稀缺或丰裕程度而支付代价或者租金的自然资源；以及（3）体现在资产中的并且根据其稀缺或丰裕程度而支付代价的过去劳动的成果。所以，最好是把企业家及其助手们的个人服务包括在劳动中，作为一种独立的生产要素，在既定的技术环境、自然资源、资本设备以及有效需求的条件下发挥作用。这可以部分地解释，为什么在货币单位和时间单位之外，我们把劳动单位作为我们经济体系中所要求的唯一实物单位。It is true that some lengthy or roundabout processes are physically efficient. But so are some short processes. Lengthy processes are not physically efficient because they are long. Some, pro