1、关于人均寿命与成人识字率的关系,用Eviews 分析如下: 11/26/14 Time:10 22 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 38.79424 3.532079 10.98340 0.0000X2 0.331971 0.046656 7.115308 0.0000 R-squared 0.716825 Mean dependent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.702666 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regression 5.501306
2、 Akaike info criterion 6.334356Sum squared resid 605.2873 Schwarz criterion 6.433542Log likelihood -67.67792 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.357721F-statistic 50.62761 Durbin-Watson stat 1.846406Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001 由上可知,关系式为y=38.79424+0.331971x2关于人均寿命与一岁儿童疫苗接种率的关系,用Eviews 分析如下:14 22 Variable Coefficie
3、nt Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 31.79956 6.536434 4.864971 0.0001X3 0.387276 0.080260 4.825285 0.0001 R-squared 0.537929 Mean dependent var 62.50000Adjusted R-squared 0.514825 S.D. dependent var 10.08889S.E. of regression 7.027364 Akaike info criterion 6.824009Sum squared resid 987.6770 Schwarz cr
4、iterion 6.923194Log likelihood -73.06409 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.847374F-statistic 23.28338 Durbin-Watson stat 0.952555Prob(F-statistic) 0.000103 由上可知,关系式为y=31.79956+0.387276x3(2)关于人均寿命与人均GDP 模型,由上可知,可决系数为0.526082,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。对于回归系数的t 检验:t (1)=4.711834t0.025(20)=2.086,对斜率系数的显着性检验表明,人均GDP 对人均寿命
5、有显着影响。关于人均寿命与成人识字率模型,由上可知,可决系数为0.716825,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。t (2)=7.115308t0.025(20)=2.086,对斜率系数的显着性检验表明,成人识字率对人均寿命有显着影响。关于人均寿命与一岁儿童疫苗的模型,由上可知,可决系数为0.537929,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。t (3)=4.825285t0.025(20)=2.086,对斜率系数的显着性检验表明,一岁儿童疫苗接种率对人均寿命有显着影响。2.2(1)对于浙江省预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,用Eviews 分析结果如下: 12/03/14 Time: 17:
6、Sample (adjusted): 1 33 33 after adjustmentsVariable Coefficient Std. Error t-StatisticX 0.176124 0.004072 43.25639C -154.3063 39.08196 -3.948274R-squared 0.983702 Mean dependent varAdjusted R-squared 0.983177 S.D. dependent varS.E. of regression 175.2325 Akaike info criterionSum squared resid 95189
7、9.7 Schwarz criterionLog likelihood -216.2751 Hannan-Quinn criter.F-statistic 1871.115 Durbin-Watson statProb(F-statistic) 0.000000Prob. 0.0000 0.0004 902.5148 1351.009 13.22880 13.31949 13.25931 0.100021 由上可知,模型的参数:斜率系数0.176124,截距为154.3063关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,检验模型的显着性:1)可决系数为0.983702,说明所建模型整体上对样本数
8、据拟合较好。2)对于回归系数的t 检验:t (2)=43.25639t0.025(31)=2.0395,对斜率系数的显着性检验表明,全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显着影响。用规范形式写出检验结果如下:Y=0.176124X154.3063(0.004072) (39.08196)t= (43.25639) (-3.948274)R2=0.983702 F=1871.115 n=33经济意义是:全省生产总值每增加1亿元,财政预算总收入增加0.176124亿元。(2)当x=32000时,进行点预测,由上可知Y=0.176124X154.3063,代入可得:Y= Y=0.176124*3200015
9、4.3063=5481.6617进行区间预测:x2=(X i X )2=2x (n1)= 7608.0212 x (331)=1852223.473(Xf X) 2=(32000 6000.441)2=675977068.2当Xf=32000时,将相关数据代入计算得到:68.2即Yf 的置信区间为(5481.661764.9649, 5481.6617+64.9649)(3) 对于浙江省预算收入对数与全省生产总值对数的模型,由Eviews 分析结果如下: Dependent Variable: LNY 18:Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic
10、 Prob.LNX 0.980275 0.034296 28.58268 0.0000C -1.918289 0.268213 -7.152121 0.0000R-squared 0.963442 Mean dependent var 5.573120Adjusted R-squared 0.962263 S.D. dependent var 1.684189S.E. of regression 0.327172 Akaike info criterion 0.662028Sum squared resid 3.318281 Schwarz criterion 0.752726Log like
11、lihood -8.923468 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.692545F-statistic 816.9699 Durbin-Watson stat 0.096208模型方程为:lnY=0.980275lnX-1.918289由上可知,模型的参数:斜率系数为0.980275,截距为-1.918289关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,检验其显着性:1)可决系数为0.963442,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。t (2)=28.58268经济意义:全省生产总值每增长1%,财政预算总收入增长0.980275%2.4(1)对建筑面积与建造单位成本模型,用Evie
12、ws 分析结果如下: 12/01/14 Time: 12:40 1 12 12 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X -64.18400 4.809828 -13.34434 0.0000C 1845.475 19.26446 95.79688 0.0000 R-squared 0.946829 Mean dependent var 1619.333Adjusted R-squared 0.941512 S.D. dependent var 131.2252S.E. of regression 31.73600 Akaike i
13、nfo criterion 9.903792Sum squared resid 10071.74 Schwarz criterion 9.984610Log likelihood -57.42275 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.873871F-statistic 178.0715 Durbin-Watson stat 1.172407Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 由上可得:建筑面积与建造成本的回归方程为:Y=1845.475-64.18400X(2)经济意义:建筑面积每增加1万平方米,建筑单位成本每平方米减少64.18400元。(3)首先进行点预测,由
14、Y=1845.475-64.18400X 得,当x=4.5,y=1556.647再进行区间估计:由上表可知,x2=(X i X )2=2x (n1)= 1.9894192 x (121)=43.5357(Xf X) 2=(4.5 3.523333) 2=0.95387843当Xf=4.5时,将相关数据代入计算得到:1556.6472.228x 31.73600x1/12+43.5357/0.95387843即Yf 的置信区间为(1556.647478.1231, 1556.647+478.1231)3.1对百户拥有家用汽车量计量经济模型,用Eviews 分析结果如下: 11/25/14 Tim
15、e:38 1 31 31X2 5.996865 1.406058 4.265020 0.0002X3 -0.524027 0.179280 -2.922950 0.0069X4 -2.265680 0.518837 -4.366842 0.0002C 246.8540 51.97500 4.749476 0.0001R-squared 0.666062 Mean dependent var 16.77355Adjusted R-squared 0.628957 S.D. dependent var 8.252535S.E. of regression 5.026889 Akaike info
16、criterion 6.187394Sum squared resid 682.2795 Schwarz criterion 6.372424Log likelihood -91.90460 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.247709F-statistic 17.95108 Durbin-Watson stat 1.147253Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001得到模型得:Y=246.8540+5.996865X2- 0.524027 X3-2.265680 X4对模型进行检验:1) 可决系数是0.666062,修正的可决系数为0.628957,说明模型对样本
17、拟合较好2) F 检验,F=17.95108F(3,27)=3.65,回归方程显着。3)t 检验,t 统计量分别为4.749476,4.265020,-2.922950,-4.366842,均大于 t (27)=2.0518,所以这些系数都是显着的。依据:1) 可决系数越大,说明拟合程度越好2) F 的值与临界值比较,若大于临界值,则否定原假设,回归方程是显着的;若小于临界值,则接受原假设,回归方程不显着。3) t 的值与临界值比较,若大于临界值,则否定原假设,系数都是显着的;若小于临界值,则接受原假设,系数不显着。人均增加万元,百户拥有家用汽车增加5.996865辆,城镇人口比重增加个百分点
18、,百户拥有家用汽车减少0.524027辆,交通工具消费价格指数每上升,百户拥有家用汽车减少2.265680辆。(3)用EViews 分析得: 12/08/14 Time:28 31 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X2 5.135670 1.010270 5.083465 0.0000LNX3 -22.81005 6.771820 -3.368378 0.0023LNX4 -230.8481 49.46791 -4.666624 0.0001C 1148.758 228.2917 5.031974 0.0000 R-squar
19、ed 0.691952 Mean dependent var 16.77355Adjusted R-squared 0.657725 S.D. dependent var 8.252535S.E. of regression 4.828088 Akaike info criterion 6.106692Sum squared resid 629.3818 Schwarz criterion 6.291723Log likelihood -90.65373 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.167008F-statistic 20.21624 Durbin-Watson stat 1
20、.150090Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 模型方程为:Y=5.135670 X2-22.81005 LNX3-230.8481 LNX4+1148.758此分析得出的可决系数为0.6919520.666062,拟合程度得到了提高,可这样改进。3.2()对出口货物总额计量经济模型,用Eviews 分析结果如下: 20:25 1994 2011 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X2 0.135474 0.012799 10.58454 0.0000X3 18.85348 9.776181 1.928
21、512 0.0729C -18231.58 8638.216 -2.110573 0.0520 R-squared 0.985838 Mean dependent var 6619.191Adjusted R-squared 0.983950 S.D. dependent var 5767.152S.E. of regression 730.6306 Akaike info criterion 16.17670Sum squared resid 8007316. Schwarz criterion 16.32510Log likelihood -142.5903 Hannan-Quinn cr
22、iter. 16.19717F-statistic 522.0976 Durbin-Watson stat 1.173432Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 由上可知,模型为:Y = 0.135474X2 + 18.85348X3 - 18231.58对模型进行检验:1)可决系数是0.985838,修正的可决系数为0.983950,说明模型对样本拟合较好2)F 检验,F=522.0976F(2,15)=4.77,回归方程显着3)t 检验,t 统计量分别为X2的系数对应t 值为10.58454,大于t (15)=2.131,系数是显着的,X3的系数对应t 值为1.928512
23、,小于t (15)=2.131,说明此系数是不显着的。(2)对于对数模型,用Eviews 分析结果如下: 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNX2 1.564221 0.088988 17.57789 0.0000LNX3 1.760695 0.682115 2.581229 0.0209C -20.52048 5.432487 -3.777363 0.0018 R-squared 0.986295 Mean dependent var 8.400112Adjusted R-squared 0.984467 S.D. d
24、ependent var 0.941530S.E. of regression 0.117343 Akaike info criterion -1.296424Sum squared resid 0.206540 Schwarz criterion -1.148029Log likelihood 14.66782 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.275962F-statistic 539.7364 Durbin-Watson stat 0.686656LNY=-20.52048+1.564221 LNX2+1.760695 LNX31)可决系数是0.986295,修正的可决系数
25、为0.984467,说明模型对样本拟合较好。2)F 检验,F=539.7364 F(2,15)=4.77,回归方程显着。3)t 检验,t 统计量分别为-3.777363,17.57789,2.581229,均大于t (15)=2.131,所以这些系数都是显着的。(1)式中的经济意义:工业增加1亿元,出口货物总额增加0.135474亿元,人民币汇率增加1,出口货物总额增加18.85348亿元。(2)式中的经济意义:工业增加额每增加1%,出口货物总额增加1.564221%,人民币汇率每增加1%,出口货物总额增加1.760695%3.3(1)对家庭书刊消费对家庭月平均收入和户主受教育年数计量模型,由Eviews 分析结果如下:30 1 18 18 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. X 0.086450 0.029363 2.944186 0.0101T 52.37031 5.202167 10.06702 0.0000C -50.01638 49.46026 -1.01
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