就业利息和货币通论 17Word下载.docx

1、这个说法，乍一看来，很令人感到困惑。于是，人们很自然地会问：（1）货币和其他资产相区别的特殊性在哪里；（2）是否只有货币才有利息率；（3）在一个非货币经济中，将会发生什么情况。直至这些问题得到回答以前，我们的理论的全部意义是不会被了解到的。The money-rate of interest-we may remind the reader-is nothing more than the percentage excess of a sum of money contracted for forward delivery, e.g. a year hence, over what we ma

2、y call the spot or cash price of the sum thus contracted for forward delivery. It would seem, therefore, that for every kind of capital-asset there must be an analogue of the rate of interest on money. For there is a definite quantity of （e.g.） wheat to be delivered a year hence which has the same e

3、xchange value to-day as 100 quarters of wheat for delivery. If the former quantity is 105 quarters, we may say that the wheat-rate of interest is 5 per cent. per annum; and if it is 95 quarters, that it is minus 5 per cent. per annum. Thus for every durable commodity we have a rate of interest in te

4、rms of itself,a wheat-rate of interest, a copper-rate of interest, a house-rate of interest, even a steel-plant-rate of interest. 我愿提醒读者，利息率不过是一定数量的货币，与根据契约，例如未来一年之后，所得到的超过我们称之为“现货”的差额，或者根据契约未来支付的一定数额现金的价格之间的百分比。所以，似乎可以说，对每种资本资产而言，都存在一个类似利息率的东西。以小麦为例，一年后的交货量是一个确定的数量，它今天的交货价值也即“现货”交割为100夸特小麦。如果一年以后交货

5、的数量为105夸特，则可以说，小麦的利息率为每年5。如果一年以后交货的数量为95夸特，则小麦的利息率为每年5。这样，对于每种耐久性的消费品来说，都有一个用它本身计量的利息率如同有小麦利息率，有铜利息率，房屋利息率，甚至钢厂利息率等等。The difference between the future and contracts for a commodity, such as wheat, which are quoted in the market, bears a definite relation to the wheat-rate of interest, but, since the

6、 future contract is quoted in terms of money for forward delivery and not in terms of wheat for spot delivery, it also brings in the money-rate of interest. The exact relationship is as follows: 对于像小麦这样的商品，其“期货”和“现货”市场价格的差额，同小麦利息率维系着一定的关系。但是，由于期货合同是以货币计量未来交割的市场价格，“现货”的市场价格也不是以小麦来计量的，所以，此处牵涉到货币利息率的问题

7、，其中的确切关系可以表述如下：Let us suppose that the spot price of wheat is 100 per 100 quarters, that the price of the contract for wheat for delivery a year hence is 107 per 100 quarters, and that the money-rate of interest is 5 per cent. ; what is the wheat-rate of interest 100 spot will buy 105 for forward de

8、livery, and 105 for forward delivery will buy 105/107 . 100 （=98） quarters for forward delivery. Alternatively 100 spot will buy 100 quarters of wheat for spot delivery. Thus 100 quarters of wheat for spot delivery will buy 98 quarters for forward delivery. It follows that the wheat-rate of interest

9、 is minus 2 per cent. per annum. 我们假设，小麦的现货价格是每100夸特为100英镑，一年后交割的“期货”价格是每100夸特为107英镑。同时，假设货币的利息率为每年5，那么，小麦的利息率是多少呢？既然100英镑的现货能买到105英镑的期货，而105英镑的期货将买到98夸特小麦的期货。这就是说，100英镑的现货能买到100夸特小麦的现货，而100夸特小麦的现货只能买到98夸特小麦的期货，这样，小麦的利息率就是每年2。It follows from this that there is no reason why their rates of interest s

10、hould be the same for different commodities,-why the wheat-rate of interest should be equal to the copper-rate of interest. For the relation between the contracts, as quoted in the market, is notoriously different for different commodities. This, we shall find, will lead us to the clue we are seekin

11、g. For it may be that it is the greatest of the own-rates of interest （as we may call them） which rules the roost （because it is the greatest of these rates that the marginal efficiency of a capital-asset must attain if it is to be newly produced）; and that there are reasons why it is the money-rate

12、 of interest which is often the greatest （because, as we shall find, certain forces, which operate to reduce the own-rates of interest of other assets, do not operate in the case of money）. 由此可知，没有理由认为，不同的商品会有相同的利息率或者，为什么小麦利息率会等同于铜利息率。因为从市场上的要价来看，“现货”与“期货”合同的差别，对不同商品来说，显然是很不相同的。我们将发现，这会给我们正在寻找的东西提供线

13、索。因为，线索可能是：各种商品自身的利息率（我们如此称呼各种商品的利息率）中，真正起作用的很可能是最高数值的利息率（因为，如果资本品要想生产出来，资本的边际效率必须达到这个最高数值的自身的利息率）；线索又在于：有理由说明，为什么货币利息率取最大值（因为，像我们即将看到的那样，某些力量在减少其他资产的自己的利息率中起作用，但在货币的场合不起作用）It may be added that, just as there are differing commodity-rates of interest at any time, so also exchange dealers are familia

14、r with the fact that the rate of interest is not even the same in terms of two different moneys, e.g. sterling and dollars. For here also the difference between the contracts for a foreign money in terms of sterling are not, as a rule, the same for different foreign moneys. 可以补充的是：正像任何时候都存在不同的商品利息率一

15、样，货币经营者也都熟悉这个事实。甚至用两种不同的货币，例如英镑和美元计量的利息率也不一样，因为用英镑计量的外国货币的“现货”价格和“期货”价格的差异，对不同的外国货币来说，一般是不同的。Now each of these commodity standards offers us the same facility as money for measuring the marginal efficiency of capital. For we can take any commodity we choose, e.g. wheat; calculate the wheat-value of

16、the prospective yields of any capital asset; and the rate of discount which makes the present value of this series of wheat annuities equal to the present supply price of the asset in terms of wheat gives us the marginal efficiency of the asset in terms of wheat. If no change is expected in the rela

17、tive value of two alternative standards, then the marginal efficiency of a capital-asset will be the same in whichever of the two standards it is measured, since the numerator and denominator of the fraction which leads up to the marginal efficiency will be changed in the same proportion. If, howeve

18、r, one of the alternative standards is expected to change in value in terms of the other, the marginal efficiencies of capital-assets will be changed by the same percentage, according to which standard they are measured in. To illustrate this let us take the simplest case where wheat, one of the alt

19、ernative standards, is expected to appreciate at a steady rate of a per cent. per annum in terms of money; the marginal efficiency of an asset, which is x per cent. In terms of money, will then be x - a per cent. in terms of wheat. Since the marginal efficiencies of all capital-assets will be altere

20、d by the same amount, it follows that their order of magnitude will be the same irrespective of the standard which is selected. 现在每种商品都可以像货币那样作为衡量标准来衡量资本的边际效率，因为我们能够用我们选择的任何商品。例如小麦，来计算任何资本资产的未来收益的小麦的价值；并且使得这一系列小麦年金的当期值等于用小麦计量的资产的当期供给价格的贴现率，就是用小麦计量的资产的边际效率。如果预期可供选择作为衡量标准的两种商品的相对价值没有变化，于是不论用二者中的哪一种作为衡

21、量标准，每一项资本资产的边际效率都将是相同的，因为得出边际效率这个分数的分子与分母是按同一比例变化的。然而，如果两种标准之一用另一种计量的价值预期会发生变化，则依照哪一种作为衡量标准，资本资产的边际效率就按其变化的同一百分率变化。现在用一种最简单的情况说明这一点。例如，作为两种衡量标准之一的小麦，预期其货币价值将稳定地按每年a的比例上升，若假定另一项资产以货币计量的边际效率为x，换成用小麦来计量即为（x-a）。由于所有资产的边际效率会按同一量值改变，因而衡量标准不论选择何种，它们的边际效率大小量的顺序是不变的。If there were some composite commodity whi

22、ch could be regarded strictly speaking as representative, we could regard the rate of interest and the marginal efficiency of capital in terms of this commodity as being, in a sense, uniquely the rate of interest and the marginal efficiency of capital. But there are, of course, the same obstacles in

23、 the way of this as there are to setting up a unique standard of value. 如果有某种复合商品，严格地说它可以作为一个代表。那么，从一定意义上说，我们就可以把用这种商品计量的利息率和资本边际效率当作这个商品唯一的利息率和唯一的资本边际效率。当然，这样做会遇到与建立唯一的价值标准同样的困难。So far, therefore, the money-rate of interest has no uniqueness compared with other rates of interest, but is on precisel

24、y the same footing. Wherein, then, lies the peculiarity of the money-rate of interest which gives it the predominating practical importance attributed to it in the preceding chapters? Why should the volume of output and employment be more intimately bound up with the money-rate of interest than with

25、 the wheat-rate of interest or the house-rate of interest? 所以，到目前为止可以看到，货币利息率同其他利息率相比并不是唯一的，而是和其他利息率处于完全相同的立足点。那么，以前各章所赋予货币利息率在现实中具有支配地位的重要性，完全来自它的哪些特点呢？为什么产出量和就业量和货币利息率密切地联系在一起，而不是和小麦利息率或者房屋利息率密切联系在一起呢？IILet us consider what the various commodity-rates of interest over a period of （say） a year are

26、likely to be for different types of assets. Since we are taking each commodity in turn as the standard, the returns on each commodity must be reckoned in this context as being measured in terms of itself. 让我们考察一下各种商品利息率在一个时期（譬如一年）对不同类型的资产可能发生的情况。由于每种商品依次被当作衡量标准，所以每种商品的报酬也就必须用它自身的数量来衡量。There are thre

27、e attributes which different types of assets possess in different degrees; namely, as follows: 不同类型的资产在不同程度上具有三种性质。它们是：（i） Some assets produce a yield or output q, measured in terms of themselves, by assisting some process of production or supplying services to a consumer. （1）通过有助于某种生产过程，或者为消费者提供服务，

28、某种资产生产出一个用其自身计量的收益或者产量q。（ii） Most assets, except money, suffer some wastage or involve some cost through the mere passage of time （apart from any change in their relative value）, irrespective of their being used to produce a yield; i.e. they involve a carrying cost c measured in terms of themselves.

29、 It does not matter for our present purpose exactly where we draw the line between the costs which we deduct before calculating q and those which we include in c, since in what follows we shall be exclusively concerned with q-c. （2）除去货币以外，多数的资产不管它们是否被用于生产某项收益，会遭遇损耗，或者仅仅由于时间的推移而引起某些费用（除去它们的相对价值的任何变化）

30、，也即它们会引起一种用它们自身计量的保管费C。它对我们现在的目的：划一条线来区别在计算q以前减去的费用和包括在C中的费用，是完全无所谓的。因为我们以后所关心的只是qC。（iii） Finally, the power of disposal over an asset during a period may offer a potential convenience or security, which is not equal for assets of different kinds, though the assets themselves are of equal initial value. There is, so to speak, nothing to show for this at the end of the