1、”When they let people answer these questions and other people listened to only the answers they thought the respondents were like the questions askedBase rates(Study 3)and monetary incentives to be accurate(Study 4)do not eliminate this effectSnyder&Swan-Confirmation Bias Studies 1&2 combined The Tr
2、ope&Bassok Response to the Snyder&Swan Study People would prefer diagnostic questions to the types of questions Snyder&Swan allowed them to choose.What questions do people prefer in testing whether someone is an extravert,“Do you shy away from social interactions?”or“Do you talk loudly?”People prefe
3、rred,“Do you shy away from social interactions?”Further testing showed that people do prefer hypothesis confirming questions,but diagnosticity of the questions is a stronger determinant of what questions people want to ask.Snyder,Tanke,&Berscheid(1977)-Behavioral Confirmation Men believe women are a
4、ttractive or unattractive and then they have a real conversation.The two sides of the conversation were taped separately.Confirmatory Hypothesis Testing-men ask women questions that elicit physical attractiveness stereotype(men were more pleasant to women perceived to be attractive)Behavior Confirma
5、tion-the mens behavior creates confirmation of the stereotype(mens attitude toward the women created its own reality)Self-Fulfilling PropheciesWord,Zanna,&Cooper(1974)Study 1-White participants interview Black or White ConfederateStudy 2-White confederates trained to interview like interviewers in S
6、tudy 1 interview White participantsRosenthal&Jacobson-teacher expectancy effectsIn a number of classrooms students are picked out at random and designated to be late bloomers who are going to exhibit a large spurt in their learning ability.These students did do better and it seems to be mediated by
7、teachers interactions with these students.Word,Zanna&Cooper-Study 1Word,Zanna,&Cooper-Study 2Perceiving CausalityNisbett&Wilson StudiesRasing the TidePower saw experimentWhich pantyhose do you like?Wilson Relationship StudiesList all the positive and negative qualities of your partnerTell me how muc
8、h you feel about your partnerWhich predicts better?Raising the TidePerceiving Relationships Between Variables2 X 2 tables and how we dont use themIllusory CorrelationChapman&Chapman studiesHamilton studies-Stereotype formation through illusory correlation?Failure to Detect Actual CorrelationChapman&
9、Chapman studiesJennings,Amabile,&Ross-correlation between walking sticks and heightHypothesis Testing and 2 X 2 TablesOccurredYesNoPredictedYesAXNoYZIllusory CorrelationWhen are people accurate?People can perceive correlations pretty well if they are highWhen their theories are right about how the w
10、orld works people are fairly accurateWhen they are familiar with the domain-such as whether they agree with others evaluations of people they know wellRatings of ability vs.personality(Kunda&Nisbett,1986)People are much more accurate in estimating consistency across situations for abilities than for
11、 personalityThey correctly perceived that peoples abilities vary across situations(someone who is smart in math may not be in English)They incorrectly overestimated the consistency of peoples personality(someone who is shy in class will be shy at parties)How Do We Make More Complex Judgements with M
12、any Variables?We understand things better when they are presented in a storyline-Story model of jury decision making(Pennington&Hastie studies)People spontaneously construct stories when viewing a trialHow easy or difficult it is to construct a story influences the verdict that juries make.We like s
13、tories best if they haveExplanatory breadthSimplicityExtent to which they can be explained by other informationCounterfactual Thinking-What Caused This to Go Wrong?Imagine you get to the airport and you missed your planeBy an hour or by five minutesWhat would make you more upset?Anticipatory RegretN
14、otion of Normality and Mental ModelsCloseness of the Counterfactual to the Actual Event-Airplane Example,Olympic MedalsException vs.Routine-exception causes more counterfactual thinkingControllabilityOther Factors that Affect Our Counterfactual ThoughtsAction vs.Inaction-do you feel worse if you did
15、 something or didnt do something?Black Jack(Miller&Taylor,1995)The importance of time(Gilovich&Medvec,1995)-what we regret more depends on when it occurredEase of Mental Replication(Miller,Turnbull,&McFarland,1989)-Stealing cookies from the cookie jarFunctions of CounterfactualsMay prevent future problemsLet us feel better by imagining how things could have been worse
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