股市金融全球化中英文对照外文翻译文献.docx

1、股市金融全球化中英文对照外文翻译文献股市金融全球化中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)外文: Taking Stock Seriously: Equity-Market Performance, Government Policy, and Financial Globalization Mosley, Layna Singer, David Andrew Are equity markets just another facet of global finance, or are they unique in their responses toand influences o

2、ngovernment policies and institutions? Recent work has explored the impact of political factors on bond market behavior and foreign direct investment, but little attention has been paid to stock markets. On the basis of the particular concerns of equity investors, we hypothesize a positive associati

3、on between stock-market valuations and levels of democracy, shareholder rights, legal traditions, and capital-account liberalization, a negative association with real interest rates, and no association with fiscal deficits or surpluses. We assess our expectations by analyzing the political and insti

4、tutional determinants of aggregate price-to-earnings ratios for a sample of up to 37 countries from 1985 to 2004, using both cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional analyses. We find support for most, but not all, of our hypotheses. Our findings suggest that we must disaggregate the effects

5、of different asset markets to understand the impact of economic globalization on government policies.How do government policies and institutions affect equity-market performance a cross countries? As stock markets grow broader and deeper in both the developed and developing worlds, this question bec

6、omes more critical. In 2004, global stock-market capitalization stood at $37.2 trillion, compared to global GDP of $41.3 trillion. While this figure was slightly less than global commercial bank assets, it markedly exceeded the total size of outstanding public debt securities, which were $23.1 trill

7、ion.1 The bulk of global stock-market capitalization represents developed-country equity markets, but less developed country marketswhich accounted for 14 percent of total capitalization in 2004are quickly gaining ground. Some emerging market countries, such as Malaysia, Singapore, and South Africa,

8、 have total stock-market capitalizations that exceed their respective gross domestic products .Equity markets enhance corporate efficiency, spur innovation, and provide a valuable source of capital for long-term economic development. They also provide a useful mechanism for governments to raise capi

9、tal through the sale of state-owned enterprises. Moreover, equity-market investments constitute an important element of individuals assets, particularly as governments shift their pension systems toward the private sector. In short, it is clear that equities constitute an increasingly important capi

10、tal market in the world economy. However, we currently know very little about how government policy choices and political institutions influence equity investors decisions.The few extant analyses of stock markets and politics tend to focus on one or two developed countries, or on sectoral variation

11、within a particular market, rather than on the determinants of national-level market outcomes in a broader cross-country context. For instance, David Leblang and Bumba Mukherjee consider the impact of government partisanship and elections on stock market outcomes in the United States and Great Brita

12、in. In a wider study, Fiona McGillivray (2003) considers the impact of partisan changes and electoral institutions on stock-market outcomes in fourteen advanced democracies. Her analyses, however, focus largely on industry-level variation, arguing that shifts in political constellations change inves

13、tors expectationsregarding which sectors will benefit from public policies. Indeed, McGillivray is interested less in equity-market outcomes per se than in using such outcomes as a proxy measure of the expectations of economic actors regarding political decisions. Similarly, William Bernhard and Dav

14、id Leblang consider the impact of politics and political uncertainty on daily market behavior in several advanced democracies. Unlike most analyses, theirs considers outcomes in multiple asset markets, including currencies, equities, and government bonds. Bernhard and Leblangs aim, however, is to ex

15、plore the consequences of discrete political eventssuch as elections and cabinet formationson capital markets, rather than to assess the broader impact of public policy and institutions on capital market outcomes.This article seeks to round out the literature on financial globalization by exploring

16、the linkages between equity-market outcomes and national government policies and institutions. Its contribution is both theoretical and empirical. Theoretically, we elaborate on the politics of equity-market performance, focusing in particular on the effects of government policies and institutions o

17、n stockmarket valuations. We rely on the relatively developed literature on foreign direct investment and sovereign bond markets to underscore the distinctiveness of equity-market reactions to government policies. Empirically, we conduct a novel evaluation of the correlates of total-market, price-to

18、-earnings ratios (P E) for a sample of up to 37 developed and emerging market countries during the 19852004 period. Cross-sectional and time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) analyses reveal that levels of democracy, market liquidity, shareholder rights, and capital-account liberalization are positively

19、 associated with equity-market valuations, while real interest rates are negatively associated. We also find that investors are positively disposed toward equity markets in emerging-market countries, and negatively disposed toward markets with high dividend payout ratios. Interestingly, many of the

20、political and economic factorsincluding inflation, and fiscal policydeemed highly salient to investors in other financial markets are not statistically associated with stock-market valuations. These results are robust to the inclusion of a number of control variables, including capital-asset pricing

21、 model (CAPM) factors and alternative pricing model considerations.Note that the responses of investors to policies and institutions also have implications for future government policy choices. For instance, if a nations economy relies more heavily on FDI than on sovereign lending or bank financing,

22、 its government may face few pressures to reduce public spending. On the other hand, if a government relies heavily on the bond market to finance its expenditures, but has a relatively low level of stock-market capitalization, it may face greater pressures for fiscal and monetary tightening. And if

23、a country relies on a varied menu of financial inflows, as most do, asset holders will express diverse preferences over public policy. Untangling the various financial-market influences on government policy making is clearly a long term research project. This article, which focuses on the political

24、determinants of equity investors behavior, complements similar analyses of sovereign bond markets and foreign direct investment. Once we understand how investors in each market react to government policies and institutions, we can then advance to a broader analysis of the impact of financial markets

25、along with domestic institutions, interest groups, and other factorson government policy making and institutional design.Stock-market performance is increasingly a target of analysis by political scientists, because equity investors may be highly sensitive to the effects of certain government polici

26、es and institutions on their investments. Equity investments are generally very liquid, and the time horizons of equity investors are often relatively short. As a result, changes in government policies can trigger a swift response by investors. Government policies that enhance investor confidenceeit

27、her directly, by providing shareholder protections and ease of exit, or indirectly, by expanding the economy and improving corporate earningswill be rewarded by higher stock prices and market valuations. On the other hand, investors can quickly withdraw their funds if governments choose market-unfri

28、endly policies, thereby generating downward pressure on stock prices and valuations. Stock markets, in short, are a valuable indicator of financial actors preferences over government institutions and policy outcomes. A fitting alternative measure of performance is the ratio of the stock price to com

29、pany earningsor, in other words, the price that equity investors are willing to pay for an expected stream of profits. As with stock prices, these ratios reflect investors expectations about future earnings, but they also signal investors preferences over time-varying government policy and largely i

30、nvariant political institutions. Because of the latter, cross-national variation in P E ratios persists even when national stock markets are hit simultaneously by global price shocks. The extant literature on the linkages between globalization and domestic politics has paid scant attention to the di

31、verse ways in which countries are integrated into the world economy. By assuming that financial markets impose a unified influence on government policies, prior studies have overlooked the stark variation in the preferences of investors across different types of financial assets. In this article, we

32、 argue that equity investors are becoming an increasingly influential force in the global economy, and that their preferences diverge from those of other financial actors in important ways. To illustrate this divergence, we present empirical analyses of the political and institutional determinants o

33、f equity market performance across a sample of developed and developing countries. Among the most interesting findings are that market valuations are significantly associated with capital-account openness, shareholder protections, levels of development, and alternative domestic investments. In addition, equity investors appear