How long will Googles magic last.docx

1、How long will Googles magic lastHow long will Googles magic last?谷歌魔力会持续多久？It flourished during the first phase of the internet. The next one may be tougher 互联网初级阶段，谷歌蓬勃发展如日中天，但下一阶段，日子或许就不那么好过了Dec 2nd 2010 | SAN FRANCISCO | from PRINT EDITION Eurocops（注1） say: “Dont be evil.”欧洲警察游戏说到：“别作恶。”“GOOGLE i

2、s not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one,” wrote Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the search firms founders, in a letter to investors ahead of its stockmarket flotation in 2004. Since then, Google has burnished its reputation as one of the quirkiest companies on the planet. This year

3、alone it has raised eyebrows by taking a stake in a wind-energy project off the east coast of America and by testing self-driving cars, which have already covered over 140,000 miles (225,000km) on the countrys roads. “谷歌不是一家传统企业。我们也不打算变成传统企业，”谷歌两位创始人Larry Page与Sergey Brin，在2004公司上市前写给投资者的一封信里，如此表示。打

4、那以后，谷歌被誉为“地球上最难捉摸的公司”，而它一直在为这一美名增光添彩。单是今年，谷歌就干了一连串引人侧目的事，譬如，入股美国东海岸的一个风能项目，测试自动驾驶汽车，这种车已在美国公路上跑了14万英里（22.5万公里）。Google has been able to afford such flights of fancy thanks to its amazingly successful online-search business. This has produced handsome returns for the firms investors, who have seen the

5、 company transform itself in the space of a mere 12 years from a tiny start-up into a behemoth with a $180 billion market capitalisation that sprawls across a vast headquarters in Silicon Valley known as the Googleplex. Google also stretches across the web like a giant spider, with a leg in everythi

6、ng from online search and e-mail to social networking and web-based software applications, or apps. 谷歌之所以能部署如此异想天开的项目，得益于其网络搜索业务的巨大成功。该业务已为投资者带来了丰厚回报。短短12年间，投资者就目睹谷歌从一家小型创业企业，成长为一个市值达1800亿美元的庞然大物，还在硅谷建立了名为Googleplex、占地巨大的总部。谷歌也在互联网上大举扩张，就像一只巨型蜘蛛，触脚遍及网络搜索、电子邮件、社交网络及网络软件应用。Much of its growth has been

7、organic, but Google has also splashed out on some sizeable acquisitions. In 2006 it paid $1.7 billion for YouTube, a website that lets people post videos of their children, kittens and Lady Gaga impersonations. The following year it snapped up DoubleClick, an online-advertising network, for $3.1 bil

8、lion. More deals are likely. Google is bidding for Groupon, a trendy e-commerce business, using some of the $33 billion sitting in its coffers.其发展大部分是内生的，但谷歌也投入重金展开巨额收购。2006年，该公司斥资17亿美元收购了视频分享网站YouTube，用户可在该网站上发布自个孩子、宠物的录像和Lady Gaga的模仿视频。次年，谷歌又花31亿美元抢购了在线广告网络DoubleClick。今后很可能会出现更多并购交易。谷歌正利用330亿美元现金储

9、备，竞购一家流行的电子商务企业团购网站Groupon。All this has turned Google into a force to be reckoned with. But now the champion of the unorthodox is faced with two conventional business challenges. The first involves placating regulators, who fret that it may be abusing its considerable power. On November 30th the Eur

10、opean Union announced a formal investigation into claims that Google has been manipulating search results to give an unfair advantage to its own servicesa charge the firm vigorously denies. In America, Google faces a similar investigation in Texas and is also battling with a bunch of online-travel c

11、ompanies who have been lobbying the government to veto its recent purchase of ITA Software, a company that provides data about flights.这一切，都让谷歌变成了一支不容小觑的力量。但如今，这家不走寻常路的成功企业，却面临两个传统的商业挑战。首先是安抚那些担心谷歌滥用权力的监管者。11月30日，欧盟宣布对谷歌展开正式调查，以确定谷歌是否操纵搜索结果，为其自身服务提供不公平的优势谷歌严词否认了这项指控。在美国，谷歌在德克萨斯州面临类似调查。此外，在最近对航班数据提供商

12、ITA Software的收购中，谷歌还要应对一大帮游说政府反对这笔交易的企业。The other challenge facing Google is how to find new sources of growth. In spite of all the experiments it has launched, the firm is still heavily dependent on search-related advertising. Last year this accounted for almost all of its $24 billion of revenue an

13、d $6.5 billion of profit. Acquisitions such as YouTube have deepened rather than reduced the firms dependence on advertising. Steve Ballmer, the boss of Googles arch-rival Microsoft, has derided the search company for being “a one-trick pony”.谷歌面临的另一大挑战，是如何找到新的增长来源。尽管其开展了多项实验，但依然十分依赖搜索广告业务。谷歌去年240亿美

14、元收入与65亿美元利润，几乎全部来源于此。诸如YouTube之类的并购案，非但没有降低谷歌对广告的依赖，反而加深了这一趋势。作为谷歌的劲敌，微软老板Steve Ballmer，甚至嘲笑这家搜索公司“一招鲜，吃遍天”。Ironically, investors biggest worry is that Google will end up like Microsoft, which has failed to find big new sources of revenue and profit to replace those from its two ageing ponies, the W

15、indows operating system and the Office suite of business software. That explains why Googles share price has stagnated. “The market seems to believe this could be like Microsoft version two,” says Mark Mahaney, an analyst at Citigroup. News of the formal EU antitrust enquiry will no doubt invite fur

16、ther comparisons with Mr Ballmers firm, which fought a long and bruising battle with European regulators.颇具讽刺意味的是，投资者最大的担忧在于，谷歌最终会落得跟微软一样，无法找到新的重要收入与利润来源，代替Windows操作系统与Office办公软件套装这个日益陈旧的招数。这也解释了谷歌股价停滞不前的原因。花旗集团分析师Mark Mahaney称，“市场似乎认为这家公司会成为微软第二。”欧盟就反垄断正式质询谷歌的消息，无疑会导致人们进一步将其与微软对比，Ballmer先生的公司就曾与欧洲监

17、管者展开过一场旷日持久的殊死斗争。 Is such a comparison fair? Those who think it is point to several changes that could damage Google. The first is the rise of new ways in which people can find information online. They include social networks such as Facebook, which saw traffic to its site in America surpass that to

18、 Googles sites earlier this year (see chart 1), and apps offered by Apple and other firms that help people find information without using a web browser.这种对比是否公平？那些认为公平的人，指出有几个变化可能毁掉谷歌。首先是新的网络信息查找方式兴起。例如Facebook等社交网络，今年初在美国的流量已经超过了谷歌（如图1所示），此外，苹果等公司提供的应用也帮助人们不使用网络浏览器就能找到信息。Appalled by walled gardens（

19、注2） “围墙花园”产生威胁Another cause for concern is that firms such as Facebook and Apple are hoarding customer data, thereby making them inaccessible to Googles search engine. The rise of such “walled gardens” on the web clearly bothers Googles top brass. “Two years ago I would have told you this isnt a pro

20、blem,” says Eric Schmidt, Googles chief executive. “Now I will tell you it is a threat.” Google recently clashed publicly and caustically with Facebook over the latters data practices, warning potential users that the social network had become “a data dead end”.另一个担忧的原因在于，Facebook及苹果等公司都在囤积用户数据，使得谷歌

21、的搜索引擎无法访问。这种网上“围墙花园”兴起，显然令谷歌高层不安。 “两年前,我或许会告诉你,这不是个问题”，谷歌CEO Eric Schmidt称，“但现在我会对你说，这是个威胁。”谷歌最近就与Facebook公开起了冲突，并挖苦后者的数据处理，甚至警告潜在用户，这种社交网络已变成了“数据的死胡同”。The search firm is seeing barriers go up elsewhere too. Take media companies, which are now thinking twice before licensing content to Google or mak

22、ing it freely available on the web. The biggest producers of television content in America are wary of supplying programming to new internet-enabled television services such as Google TV. And the rush towards tablet computers by newspaper companies hungry for new sources of revenue means that many o

23、f them are withdrawing free content from the internet.这家搜索公司也在其他领域碰到了障碍。以媒体公司为例，他们现在与谷歌签订内容授权合同，或在网上投放免费内容时，都会三思。在向Google TV等互联网电视服务提供节目时，美国最大的电视内容制造商，也会小心翼翼。一直渴求新收入来源的报业公司，则在积极涌向平板电脑领域，这也表明他们中的许多企业正从互联网上撤下免费内容。Google could also suffer from any backlash against companies that are perceived to have v

24、iolated users privacy online. If governments tighten rules in response, they could make it harder for the firm to carry on minting money from ads. And pressure for action is growing: on December 1st Americas Federal Trade Commission said it favoured a plan to allow consumers to choose whether or not

25、 their web-surfing habits are tracked by others.任何针对企业侵犯用户网络隐私的指摘，都可能伤及谷歌。倘若政府以收紧政策作为回应，就会令谷歌更难从广告业务上捞钱。而这种压力也迫在眉睫：12月1日，美国联邦商务委员会称其赞成一项计划，允许用户自主选择是否让其他人跟踪自个的上网习惯。Eurocops say: “Dont be evil.”欧洲警察游戏说：“别作恶。”Vexed in the Googleplex 谷歌总部焦虑弥漫Lastly, there are problems inside the Googleplex itself. The c

26、ompany has lost a number of stars, such as Omar Hamoui, the founder of AdMob, a mobile-advertising company that Google acquired last year, and Lars Rasmussen, who led a project called Wave to create a new kind of online collaborative tool. Mr Rasmussen recently moved to Facebook, complaining that it

27、 had become impossible to get things done at Google because of the bureaucracy at the company, which now boasts 23,000 employees.最后，谷歌内部也存在问题。该公司已失去了Omar Hamoui和Lars Rasmussen等明星员工。前者是谷歌去年收购的移动广告公司AdMob的创始人，后者是网络协作工具Wave项目的负责人。Rasmussen先生最近跳槽到Facebook，他抱怨谷歌官僚主义盛行，无法做事。谷歌现在自诩拥有2.3万名员工。Admittedly, Mr

28、Rasmussen may still be sore that Google shuttered his project, which flopped. But his complaint resonates with some Xooglers (the nickname for former Google employees), who say decision-making has become painfully slow as the firm has grown. Jon Holman, an executive recruiter, reckons Google is goin

29、g through what he calls “a Darwinian evolution” that could make it harder to attract top talent in future.无可否认，Rasmussen先生或许仍对谷歌关闭他的失败项目耿耿于怀。不过他的抱怨，也确实引发了部分Xoogler（谷歌前雇员的昵称）共鸣，他们都宣称，随着谷歌发展壮大，决策效率已慢得令人痛苦不堪。一家人力资源公司的高管Jon Holman，认为谷歌正经历其所谓的“达尔文进化”，使之未来越来越难吸引顶尖人才。Does all this mean that Googles glory d

30、ays are over? Dont bet on it. True, the firms revenue growth slowed from 56% in 2007 to 9% last year, but that was still respectable considering that the global economy fell howling off a cliff. And there are signs that the company is picking up steam again: its third-quarter revenue rose by 23% to

31、$7.3 billion, which beat most analysts expectations.这一切，是否意味着谷歌的辉煌时期已经结束？别这么肯定。的确，该公司的收入增速虽然从2007年的56%放缓至去年的9%，但考虑到全球经济同样一路呼啸下滑，这种速度依然相当可观。而且有迹象显示，谷歌正再次加速：该公司第三季度收入增加了23%，达到73亿美元，超出多数分析师的预期。Moreover, Google is well placed to benefit from several important trends. One is the rapid growth in the amoun

32、t of data being produced worldwide, which provide the raw material on which Googles search engine feasts. For instance, YouTube is now taking in 35 hours-worth of video content every minute of the day, up from about six hours-worth in June 2007. That suggests there is still likely to be a big role for a general-purpose search engine, even if people do use apps and social networks more often to get information.此外，谷歌还将大大受益于几个重要趋势。其中之一便是世界各地产生的数据量快速增长，这为谷歌搜索引擎大餐提供了原料。例如，用户现在每天每分钟上传到YouTube的视频内容时长达35小时，2007年6月这一数字约为6小时，大幅增加。这表明即便人们确实在更为频繁地使用应用及社交网络获取信息，但通用搜索引擎仍将扮演重要角色。Google als