商务英语论文.docx

商务英语论文.docx

《商务英语论文.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《商务英语论文.docx（6页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

商务英语论文

题目美元贬值对中国经济的影响（TheDepreciationofUSDandIt’sEffectsonChina’sEconomy）

学院外国语学院

班级英语N083

学号200845639312

学生姓名罗珺

指导教师詹文友

完成日期2011年6月5日

内容摘要

本文从介绍美元的历史及现状入手,揭示美元贬值的历史原因,分析美元持续贬值的原因及对美国和世界经济的影响,并从进出口贸易、外汇储备、吸引外资、人民币升值等方面重点论述美元贬值对中国宏观经济所产生的正反两方面作用。

如何成功应对美元贬值及美元未来走势不确定性可能对我国经济产生的影响,确保我国经济持续快速健康的发展,是值得做进一步研究和探讨的问题。

关键词：

美元贬值；中国经济；影响；对策建议

Abstract

ThispaperbeginswithabriefintroductiontoUSD'shistoryandcurrentsituation,andrevealthehistoricalreasonofdepreciation.ThispaperanalysethecausesofsustaintingdepreciationofUSDandimpacttotheAmericaandtheworld'seconomic.Thispaperelaboratesonthegoodandbadimpacttochinamacroeconomyintermsofimportandexporttrade,foreignexchangereserves,attractingforeigninvestment,appreciationofthermb.Theproblemthathowtofacetheeffectfromtheuncertaintyfuturetrendofdepreciationandensurethatourcountry'ssustained,rapidandsoundeconomicdevelopmentisaworthdoingfurtherstudyandexploreissue.

Keywords:

ThedepreciationofUSD;china'seconomic;Influence;Countermeasureandadvices

Contents

1Introduction5

1.1HistoryandcurrentsitutationoftheUSD5

2ThecausesofsustaintingdepreciationofUSD6

3TheeffecttotheChina'seconomic7

3.1goodeffect7

3.1.1Raisedourcompetitivepowerofgoodsandservice'sexport7

3.1.2Strengthenedtheattractionofforeigncompany'sdirectinvestmentt7

3.1.3thepositiveimpacttoourforeignexchangereserve8

3.1.4goodtodeceleratethepressfromthedeflation8

3.2badeffect8

3.2.1Loweredthecapacityofourcountry'sforeignexchangereserve8

3.2.2Raisedtheforeigndebtburdenofourcountry9

3.2.3Repressedtheshapeofourcountry’sintrovertedtypesegment9

3.2.4EnlargedthepressfromaninternationalcommunitytotheRMBrevalues9

4HowshouldRMBfacetheUSDdepreciation?

10

5Conclusion11

1Introduction

inthelasttwoyear,sustaintingdepreciationofUSDsparkedtheinternationalsocial'sextensiveattention.Theywidespreadlythinksthatwillhaveaprofoundaffectontheworldeconomydevelopsstructure.Toourcountry,becauseofit'scontinuouslyopeningtotheoutsideworldandintegrateintoworldeconomydaybyday,thedepreciationofUSDalsoinevitablyimpactoureconomies.Therearebothopportunitiesandchallenges.What'smore,itneedtoadjustthecurrentpolicyandreconsidersomepolicies.Inshort,theinfluencetochina'seconomicissoworthyofconcernandstudy.

1.1HistoryandcurrentsitutationoftheUSD

ThefirstdollarcoinsissuedbytheUnitedStatesMint（founded1792）weresimilarinsizeandcompositiontotheSpanishdollar.TheSpanish,U.S.silverdollars,andMexicansilverpesoscirculatedsidebysideintheUnitedStates,andtheSpanishdollarandMexicanpesoremainedlegaltenderuntil1857.

ThehistoryoftheUnitedStatesdollarcoversmorethan200years.UndertheBrettonWoodssystemestablishedafterWorldWarII,thevalueoftheU.S.dollarwasfixedto$35perounce,andthevalueoftheU.S.dollarwasthusanchoredtothevalueofgold.

Risinggovernmentspendinginthe1960s,however,ledtodoubtsabouttheabilityoftheUnitedStatestomaintainthisconvertibility,goldstocksdwindledasbanksandinternationalinvestorsbegantoconvertdollarstogold,andasaresultthevalueofthedollarbegantodecline.FacinganemergingcurrencycrisisandtheimminentdangerthattheUnitedStateswouldnolongerbeabletoredeemdollarsforgold,goldconvertibilitywasfinallyterminatedin1971.ThevalueoftheU.S.dollarwasthereforenolongeranchoredtogold,anditfellupontheFederalReservetomaintainthevalueoftheU.S.currency.Between1965and1981,theU.S.dollarlosttwothirdsofitsvalue.Overthethirty-yearperiodfrom1981to2009,theU.S.dollarlostoverhalfitsvalue.ThisisbecausetheFederalReservehastargetednotzeroinflation,butalow,stablerateofinflation-between1987and1997,therateofinflationwasapproximately3.5%,andbetween1997and2007itwasapproximately2%.Theso-called"GreatModeration"ofeconomicconditionssincethe1970siscreditedtomonetarypolicytargetingpricestability.

Duringthetimesafter2000,thecontinuallydepreciationofUSdollarhasarousedtheinternationalsociety'swidespreadinterest.Andtheygenerallythoughtthiswillhaveaseriesofquiteobviousevenprofoundinfluencestothenearfutureworldeconomicdevelopmentpattern.

2ThecausesofsustaintingdepreciationofUSD

USdollar’sstatusinworldcurrencysystemiscloselyrelatedintheUS'sstatusinworldeconomics.Theshare'srelativedropofAmericaneconomyintheworldeconomicstotalquantity'sisthehistoricalreasonwhichUSdollarweakens.Anditisalsotheeconomicglobalizationnecessity.InthelastfewyearsthecontinuallydepreciationofUSdollaristheresultwhichtheAmericaneconomyoncedeclined.LookingfromthepresentAmericaneconomy'sdevelopmentsituation,thereasonwhichUSdollardepreciatescontinuallyhasthefollowing:

Lookingfromthedomesticfactor,thedepreciationofUSDmaybecauseoftheUSgovernment.Inordertodealwiththefinancialcrisisandtheeconomicrecession,sinceDecembertheFedhascutitspolicyratetonearlyo.Andusevariousmodemobilitytowardtreatinginthemarket,tosustainthefinancemarkets'stabilizationandstimulateacyclicalrecovery.ThedepreciationofUSDstimulatedtheexportofUnitedStates,andboostAmericaneconomies.

Seefromtheinternationalfactor,thedepreciationofUSDhastwosidesofreasonatleast.First,somenation,particularlythecountriesofresourcetype,leadoffeconomicrecoveryandstartliftinganinterest.Secondly,theinternationalinvestoradjustsaportfolioandreducesUSDassets,super-holdotherassetses,suchasEURandyen...etc..

3TheeffecttotheChina'seconomic

Thechangeofdollarrateisadouble-edgedsword.NomattertoAmericaneconomicortoothernationaleconomiesintheworld,itwillstillgeneratetheimpactbothsideofplusorminus.BecausethecurrentlyRMB'srateregimephysicallyfixedsonUSD.ThedepreciationofUSDwillcausevirtualdepreciationofRMBastoseveralmajorworldcurrencies.Theimpacttoourcountryasfollows:

3.1goodeffect

Seefromtheopportunity,thedevaluationofU.S.dollarprovidedoureconomicwithfourfavorabletermses:

3.1.1Raisedourcompetitivepowerofgoodsandservice'sexport

Tochina,ifthedevaluationofUSDarebenign,itmaydobettertotheChinaEconomy,especiallytheexportandimport..ThisisrightanexcellentoccasiontoexpandexportsforChinaenterprise.Chinaexportenterpriseshouldgrabthisopportuneandmakeagreatefforttoexpandthenon-dollararea.Moreover,theeconomicrecoveryoftherestofthecountrysuchasEngland,CanadaandAustraliaarealsowell.ThisalsogoodtoexpandtheexportofChinaenterpriseintermsofbothpriceandneeds.

3.1.2Strengthenedtheattractionofforeigncompany'sdirectinvestmentt

Intherespectofthecapitalflow,Chinamaybeagoodplaceforforeigncapitalflowingagain.USD'sweakaregoodtotheinternationalcapitalofnon-USDtoexchangeintoUSDtobeinvestedtoChina.Forexample,EUR,yenmaybeabletoexchangemoreUSD.Chinashouldholdthistimewheninternationalfinancecapitalflowingnewswing.

3.1.3thepositiveimpacttoourforeignexchangereserve

Tosupervisionofreserveforforeignexchange,theexternalworldthinks:

USDdevalue,thenationalreserveforforeignexchangecashequivalentvaluedescends;EURdevalue,thenationalreserveforforeignexchangecashequivalentvaluedescends;Yendevalue,thenationalreserveforforeignexchangecashequivalentvaluedescends.Infine,oncetheUSD,EURandyenhasfluctuationinexchange,Thenationalreserveforforeignexchangecashequivalentvalueswilldescend.Actually,foreignexchangereserveswillincurlossesonlywhentheliquidityneeds.ButChinakeepfavourablebalanceofpaymentsinrecentyears.Thuslosscould'tbetakenplace.Inthenearfuture,Chineseforeignexchangereservehavenoneedtopayforinternationalgoods.

3.1.4goodtodeceleratethepressfromthedeflation

TheRMBdepreciationresultfromthedepreciationofUSDwillgoodtothearrestmentfordroopofourcountry’spricerate,urgetheratehorizontaltoupandalleviatedeflationpress.　

3.2badeffect

ThedepreciationofUSDcausestheunemployednumberofourcountryraises.ThedepreciationofUSDalsocausesmuchrelatedcraftemploymentopportunities'reducing.ThecostoftheforeignvisitorcomestoChinatotravelupswing,affectingtourandtheconsumption,especiallytoourserviceindustry,tourism,thenavigationindustry.

3.2.1Loweredthecapacityofourcountry'sforeignexchangereserve

Theforeignexchangereserveofourcountryinthelastfewyearskeptincreasing.ButbecauseofthebigpartsofwhattoholdsareUSD,ThedepreciationofUSDalsomeansourcountry'sabilitytopayorpurchasingpowerofthereserveforforeignexchangeisdegressivebycomparison（EURandyen）.

3.2.2Raisedtheforeigndebtburdenofourcountry

Theshort-termoutstandingexternaldebtofourcountryinrequirementtoreimburseinthenearfuturehaveonethirdofalltheoutstandingexternaldebt,andEURandyenhaveabove20%.AlltheseindicatethatverypartofforeigndebtsneedstouseEURandyentosettleaccounts.Thisaddedtheforeigndebtburdenofourcountrynaturally.

3.2.3Repressedtheshapeofourcountry’sintrovertedtypesegment

Therelevantexpertthinksatthesametime:

ThoughwhatcurrentRMBpracticesisthesupervisoryfloatingexchangeratesystem,Seeingfromactualexecutioneffect,itactuallyi